Hersh: Breeders' Cup Saturday pick four
You can look at the Turf Sprint two ways: a chance to reap profits sown by chaos, or a serious drag on a pick four ticket with a reasonable budget. I’ve got eight Turf Sprint horses on this ticket – 3 As, 3 Bs, 2 Cs – and still that doesn’t feel like enough. To keep the price tag from rising too high, hard stands are taken in both the Filly and Mare Turf and the Filly and Mare Sprint. Single As in both races keeps the all-A portion to a mere $4.50, and I plan to hit it two or three times.
Race 4 – Juvenile Filliies
ANGELA RENEE (#2) got a better trip than did CONQUEST ECLIPSE (#4) in the Chandelier, the course-and-distance prep for this, and Conquest Eclipse, for what it’s worth, quickly galloped out past Angela Renee. I rate them close to equal; both can win. MAJESTIC PRESENCE (#7) hasn’t yet run quite to that level, but she had a terrible, wide draw in trhe Chandelier, lost all the ground, made a sharp middle move, and held decently for fourth. Think she’s a potential improver in her second dirt start, and using as an A. TOP DECILE (#11) has the same rotten draw here as Majestic Presence had last time, but she will show more speed than she did at Keeneland and could fall into decent position. FEATHERED (#1) might have floundered in mud last time and is speed from the rail, dangerous on this track with a touch of quality.
Race 5 – Filly and Mare Turf
It seems fair to say DANK (#3) is comfortably the most likely winner if she can reproduce her winning form from the 2013 F and Mare Turf. The long layoff and modest last-out performance have many skeptical, but she has never been as good in European races as she has at other venues, and I see no reason why the excellent trainer would send her here at something less than ready. Two Euros, JUST THE JUDGE (#2) and SECRET GESTURE (#5) are not Dank’s class at her best but good enough to win if she falters. They’re the Bs, while STEPHANIE’S KITTEN (#10), poorly drawn wide and unfamiliar with this course, and DAYATTHESPA (#4), who enters in career form and has controlling speed, are Cs.
Race 6 – Filly and Mare Sprint
ARTEMIS AGROTERA (#5) flopped here last year in the Juvenile Fillies, but so did Untapable, and she won the Distaff on Friday. Artemis Agrotera has far more speed than she showed when either taken back or away slowly from the rail last out, and she will put it to good use to get a favorable pressing/stalking trip behind STONETASTIC (#3), the lone B on the strength of her Test romp at this trip. JUDY THE BEAUTY (#7) was beaten only by Groupie Doll in this race last year, but Groupie Doll, despite winning, was not as brilliant last year as she’d been in the 2012 Filly and Mare Sprint. Seven furlongs is pushing Judy the Beauty’s limit.
:: Build your pick four ticket with DRF TicketMaker | DRF TicketMaker (Mobile)
Race 7 – Turf Sprint
Really liked RENEESGOTZIP’s (#1) last work, and she might simply be faster than the other speed and go clear from the rail. If the race were 6 1/4 rather than 6 1/2 furlongs, I’d like her more. SILENTIO (#2) strikes me as a decent candidate to do well on the cutback from longer turf races. Prodded by a couple sources to look longer at AMBITIOUS BREW (#5), it does seem possible he takes a significant step forward from his solid local prep. Those are the As. Wish there were more.
Here’s the whole play on DRF’s invaluable Ticketmaker.