Hersh: Breeders' Cup pick four play for Saturday, Oct. 31
You’ve got potential bookend singles in Saturday's early Breeders' Cup pick four at Keeneland in SONGBIRD (No. 10 in the Juvenile Fillies) and LEGATISSIMO (No. 3 in Filly-Mare Turf), and there’s enough of a chance for chaos in the other two races - the Turf Sprint and, to a lesser extent, the Filly and Mare Sprint - that both those favorites could get home and you might still get paid.
But while I’m leaning on Songbird and Legatissimo, I like a couple horses other than the Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies, and can’t quite trust Legatissimo enough not to back her up to close out the early pick four. So I’ll link to two tickets in DRF Ticketmaker mobile, the bold play at a lesser cost but with only one horse in races 3 and 6, and the spreadier, pricier ticket that I plan on putting in.
:: See Marcus Hersh’s economy pick four play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets
:: See Marcus Hersh’s spread pick four play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets
RACE 3 – Songbird already stretched out and romped, and the thought that Southern California 2-year-old fillies are better than the New Yorkers was bolstered when Pretty N Cool, whom Songbird smoked, made short work of the locals at Belmont in the Grade 2 Matron. Songbird seems solid, but NICKNAME (7) was among the most impressive horses I saw training here this week, and is highly regarded by the stable. TAP TO IT (2) has made mistakes, probably because of immaturity, but if she does it again it will mean less on Saturday in her first start around two turns. Both on looks and pedigree, she’s likely to handle the extra distance. Using those two as A's while being prepared to self-flagellate if clearly talented Rachel’s Valentina gets home.
RACE 4 – The Turf Sprint past performances are really not all that much more than random noise. Pick a name and you might do just as well. I feel fairly comfortable with the coverage here using a mere 11 horses, but getting the A-B-C's in the proper order will be the trick, obviously.
I picked two longshots on top, MONGOLIAN SATURDAY (14) and MARCHMAN (11), and will use them with UNDRAFTED (3), SOMETHING EXTRA (8), and THE GREAT WAR (10) as A's. I am against morning-line favorite LADY SHIPMAN (5), who will be higher than 5-2, and using her defensively as a C. The point is this: Cast as wide a net as your bankroll allows.
RACE 5 – I like this race to fall apart with so much early and middle pace signed on, and am playing it accordingly, using three closers – ARTEMIS AGROTERA (5), WAVELL AVENUE (7), and CAVORTING (14) – as A's, and backing up only with Cs. Personally, I find this race nearly as unmanageable as the Turf Sprint and will have real concerns about getting through it, but I keep going through the list of horses I’m leaving out and just really don’t like any of them.
RACE 6 – The turf might be softer than Legatissimo prefers, and she’s at the end of a long campaign, but she’s easily the most likely winner of the Filly-Mare Turf. I'm backing her up with two more Euros, MISS FRANCE (9) and SECRET GESTURE (12), as B's, and tossing in HARD NOT TO LIKE (1) as a C after seeing her jumping out of her skin galloping Friday morning.
Spread ticket: 50-cent base, $103.50 cost
Race 3
A: 10
B: 2,7
Race 4
A: 3,8,10,11, 14
B: 1,2
C: 5,7,9,12
Race 5
A: 5,7,14
B: None
C: 6,10,11
Race 6
A: 3
B: 9,12
C: 1