Hersh: Belmont Day pick four play (races 8-11)
Pick 4: Races 8-11; $1.5 million guarantee
Race 8 – Just a Game
BETTER LUCKY (10) would by my top pick in the race. Trainer Thomas Albertrani seems to have figured out this mare does well with a one-two punch and space between starts: Point her for a big race, give her one race before it, and she is likely to run a peak. The pattern has held three times in a row, including a good second in this race last year over a wet course she might not have loved. DISCREET MARQ (9) can lead or press Somali Lemonade if that filly’s newfound desire (blinkers on) for the front end holds. She is line for a great trip and is ideally suited to a one-turn Belmont mile. After a long layoff (hind-end problems, if I recall correctly), a barn change, and a clunky comeback run, it feels like a stretch forecasting STEPHANIE’S KITTEN (6) getting all the way back to the form that won this race on a wet course a year ago. But I can’t leave her out. Came very close to tossing STRATHNAVER (2) in as a hunch bomber.
::DRF Live: Get real-time reports and handicapping insights from Belmont all day Saturday
Race 9 – Metropolitan Handicap
Had PALACE MALICE (1) not drawn the rail, this would have been simpler and cheaper, but he did, so it’s not. The rail isn’t necessarily doom, but with lots of speed drawn to his outside, Palace Malice has just enough pace to wind up in a position where he could get sawed off and sucked back, and forced to rally through traffic. And once you get past him as potential standout, there are a lot of options. CENTRAL BANKER (9) and SHAKIN IT UP (13) are virtually the same horse, and both appear set for a good showing and a favorable setup. NORMANDY INVASION (9) is ripe for this turn back in distance, and he’s the fourth “A” I’ll use. Don’t have a strong positive feeling about the three Bs. GOLDENCENTS (4) is ambitiously spotted for his 2014 debut and almost has to be in a pace battle, while the speed of MORENO (5) might better suit two-turn races. CLEARLY NOW (10) looks like a poor man’s Central Banker or Shakin It Up. But I don’t want any of them to knock me out.
Race 10 – Manhattan
English import SEEK AGAIN (6) looks like the right one after two strong U.S. races, including a near miss to Wise Dan, and if this were nine furlongs I might single him. He did win the Hollywood Derby over this 10-furlong distance, but seeing Speightstown as his sire introduces a shadow of doubt. GRANDEUR (4) had no pace at which to run, and no Lasix, when he finished third behind Imagining last out. Has shipped plenty, so no fear there. ROOKIE SENSATION (3) wound up on lead in the Hollywood Derby, his lone prior 10-furlong start, and he doesn’t want to make the pace. Trouble and good finishes in his last two, and a dangerous price shot. Those are the As. REAL SOLUTION (8) was placed firstt via DQ in the Arlington Million and still hasn’t finished first in the U.S. This is his trip, but he’s so far not looked the same this year. IMAGINING (1) isn’t getting the cozy lead he had last time, and I don’t really respect him, but his 5 for 8 Belmont win mark earns him a spot. FIVE IRON (7) probably isn’t good enough, but what if he forgets to stop on the lead?
::2014 BELMONT STAKES: Latest news, video, PPs, and more
Race 11 – Belmont
WICKED STRONG (9) and CALIFORNIA CHROME (2) will do it for me. California Chrome is not going to beat himself, and Victor Espinoza isn’t going to get him beat. I see him having the lead straightening for home, with one horse bearing down – Wicked Strong. But that’s only one man’s vision.
If you want to keep it simple, play a 50-cent all As ticket for $24. If you want to fool around slightly, throw in a B for every three sets of As for a $78 total. Good luck!
Race 8
A: 9,10
B: 6
Race 9
A: 1, 6, 9, 13
B: 4, 5, 10
Race 10
A: 3. 4, 6
B: 1, 7, 8
Race 11
A: 2, 9
AAAA $24 – 9,10 with 1,6,9,13 with 3,4,6 with 2,9
BAAA $12 – 6 with 1,6,9,13 with 3,4,6 with 2,9
ABAA $18 – 9,10 with 4,5,10 with 3,4,6 with 2,9
AABA $24 – 9,10 with 1,6,9,13 with 1,7,8 with 2,9