Hersh: Arlington-Washington Futurity analysis

The “best” horse in a race: What does that mean exactly? PRIVATE PROSPECT is the “best” horse in the Grade 3, $125,000 Arlington-Washington Futurity in the sense that he’s 3 for 3 with two stakes wins, and no other horse in the race has more than a maiden win to his credit. But is Private Prospect the best horse in the local Futurity in the sense of being the most likely winner? I have doubts about that. I’m not approaching the race that way.

Private Prospect won a modest early-meet Arlington maiden $50K claimer, from which he was taken. He was easily best over a suspect group in a Prairie Meadows dirt sprint, and would have won a richer two-turn dirt stakes there had he not shied badly from the crop in deep stretch.

My guess is the race Saturday will put forth stiffer competition. ONE GO ALL GO, RECOUNT, BOURBON COWBOY, and IKE WALKER all look just as likely as Private Prospect.

You can usually tell when a horse is cranked to win first time out. One Go All Go easily won his debut, but he didn’t look fully stretched by any means. He had to do somewhat tricky stuff for a first-time starter -- come through a hole along the fence, make two moves – and handled it all easily, galloping out well after easily winning a six-furlong, $62,500 maiden-claimer. He comes back in just two weeks, and I kind of like that move here.

Recount was well beaten by Private Prospect in Iowa but his Arlington maiden win was much more impressive than Private Prospect’s, and Recount might have been taken out of his best game when he was well off a slow route pace last time. He showed speed going 5 ½ furlongs on Polytrack and I would expect him to be prominent throughout this race.

Ike Walker, from the same barn as One Go All Go, was a second-start blowout maiden winner last time at the Futurity’s seven-furlong Polytrack trip, but I didn’t think his race was quite as impressive as it looked on the page. He trips out favorably, however, and I don’t dislike the horse enough to rule out a win.

Recount buried Bourbon Cowboy in their common debut but Recount looked fitter and readier that day than Bourbon Cowboy. Bourbon Cowboy returned with a professional maiden win in which he stalked and knifed between horses, finishing well to beat Nun the Less, who was back last weekend with his own 2-year-old maiden special weight route. The stretch to seven furlongs should not hurt Bourbon Cowboy, but I’m not convinced he has a second consecutive forward move in him.

Selections
1. One Go All Go
2. Recount
3. Ike Walker