Heitai will try to hold on late in Champions Day Sprint

The three big-name horses on the Louisiana Champions Day card are Sunbean, String King, and Heitai. Sunbean in the Classic and String King in the Turf look seriously formidable. Both will be short-priced favorites, and contrarian types might be banging their heads against the wall trying to take down either horse, particularly Sunbean, who has only four rivals in the Classic.

Heitai, however, looks vulnerable as a short-priced favorite in the Sprint, and the four other Thoroughbred stakes on the card hold appeal from a betting standpoint. Let’s take a look at them.

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CHAMPIONS DAY SPRINT

KEY CONTENDERS

Heitai (Last 3 Beyers: 95-94-100)

◗ Put Heitai in a five-furlong race – dirt or turf, doesn’t matter – and you will have trouble finding a horse anywhere in the country who can beat him. Heitai is blazingly fast, but after 5 1/2 furlongs or so, his aggressive striding starts losing efficiency, and in six-furlong races, Heitai has won just twice in nine tries.

◗ Despite being run down by Too Dim, who returns for the Sprint, Heitai is the 4-5 morning-line favorite, which seems about right.

◗ Those looking to excuse Heitai’s recent defeat can look to the track surface. The wet track that day was sticky and laboring, and it brought to the fore Heitai’s stamina limitations.

Too Dim (Last 3 Beyers: 96-82-91)

◗ Has an excellent 5-0-1 record from seven starts at Fair Grounds, and he bravely pushed past Heitai after collaring him in the homestretch Nov. 23.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Eddie Johnston has a record of 0-2-0 from seven starters over the last five years in Louisiana-bred sprint stakes. That string of defeats includes horses who went off at odds of 3-2, 8-5, 9-5, 5-2, and 7-2.

Warren’s Rebel (Last 3 Beyers: 59-88-76)

◗ Has an upset chance at 20-1 on the morning line.

◗ Ran terribly in the Nov. 23 allowance race but had previously shown improving form since trainer Andy Leggio added blinkers.

◗ Is the only Louisiana-bred ever to defeat heavy Classic favorite Sunbean.

CHAMPIONS DAY TURF

KEY CONTENDERS

String King (Last 3 Beyers: 100-86-91)

◗ Won the Turf in 2011 by a nose and in 2012 by one length. By the obscure $1,500 sire Crowned King, he was bred, is owned, and is trained by Charlie Smith, who moonlights as a horsemen while operating a body shop not far from Louisiana Downs. String King is the horse of a lifetime for Smith, with earnings approaching $700,000.

◗ String King almost always improves in his second race after a layoff and has won three stakes on such a pattern. In his Nov. 23 comeback race following a layoff, he finished second to One King’s Man but earned a career-best 100 Beyer Speed Figure.

Benwill (Last 3 Beyers: 96-66-86)

◗ Exits the best race of his career, albeit in September, when he was placed first via disqualification in the $100,000 Unbridled Stakes at Louisiana Downs, a race in which String King finished fourth.

◗ Away from the race since Sept. 12, but trainer Mike Burgess, who is based at a training center, has won with three of his last 12 such layoff runners for a $2.75 return on investment.

CHAMPIONS DAY LASSIE

KEY CONTENDERS

Vivian Da Bling (Last 3 Beyers: 48-74-73)

◗ The likely pacesetter from the rail makes her first start against Louisiana-breds. She won her first two starts at Lone Star, then was a decent, troubled fourth at Saratoga in the Grade 2 Adirondack.

◗ Went too fast early against good competition at a distance farther than her best last out in the Delta Princess Stakes.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Bret Calhoun has a $2.76 ROI over the last five years with 2-year-old Louisiana-bred filly sprinters at Fair Grounds.

CHAMPIONS DAY JUVENILE

KEY CONTENDERS

Mr. L.S. Shoe (Last 2 Beyers: 81-53)

◗ Undefeated after two Louisiana Downs starts but races for the first time at Fair Grounds and for the first time since Sept. 6.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer James Hodges with 2-year-old Louisiana-breds returning from layoffs of 61-180 days at Fair Grounds over the last five years has gone 14-0-1-1.

◗ Breaks from post 14, which in six-furlong Fair Grounds races since 2010 has produced just three winners from 55 starters.

CHAMPIONS DAY LADIES

KEY CONTENDERS

Tensas Harbor (Last 3 Beyers: 70-70-66)

◗ Trainer Keith Desormeaux, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with Texas Red last month, is using the same pattern that nearly won Tensas Harbor the 2013 Champions Day Ladies, prepping her for this start in the Magnolia Stakes at Delta Downs. Tensas Harbor finished sixth in the 2013 Magnolia and lost the Ladies by a neck, and she was fourth in the Magnolia this year.

◗ Her recent Beyers don’t reflect the filly’s peak performance level: Her best races, most of which have come at Fair Grounds, have produced Beyers in the 80s and even as high as 90.

CHAMPIONS DAY LADIES SPRINT

KEY CONTENDERS

Blessed Immaculata (Last 3 Beyers: 71-75-87)

◗ The mare is better than her last two starts suggest. She appeared to struggle over a tricky, wet racetrack in her most recent race and did not quite stay the one-mile distance while a decent second two races ago in a Delta stakes race.

◗ Has won her last two six-furlong starts on fast racetracks.