Heavenly Sunday looks to connect again on Oaks Day, this time in Modesty

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The Modesty Stakes used to be a handicap run during July at Arlington Park. That’s relatively ancient history, but connections of the 4-year-old filly Heavenly Sunday hope history repeats itself.

On Kentucky Oaks Day in 2023, Heavenly Sunday went wire to wire in the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes. On this Oaks Day, she could be the controlling speed in the Grade 3, $400,000 Modesty, a 1 1/8-mile grass contest for older fillies and mares.

Trainer Brad Cox cross-entered Heavenly Sunday in Saturday’s Distaff Turf Mile but was leaning strongly toward the Modesty, in great part because there’s less early speed. Heavenly Sunday does her best work on or just off the lead, where she’ll be Friday.

Heavenly Sunday, by Candy Ride, never has raced beyond 1 1/16 miles and starts for the first time since Nov. 24 while making her first appearance in a race not restricted by age.

“She’s a stronger horse now and she’s been training great,” Cox said. “I think she can win.”

:: DRF Kentucky Derby Package: Save on PPs, Clocker Reports, Betting Strategies, and more.

The morning line pegs Heavenly Sunday as the 3-1 favorite. Cox is 24-10-5-4 over the last five years with favorites in Kentucky graded turf stakes. But Surprisingly, listed at 5-1, could wind up the Modesty favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Flavien Prat.

Repole Stable paid $1 million at a November auction for Surprisingly, a Grade 3 winner last year as a 4-year-old. Surprisingly has run twice for Pletcher, second by a neck in the Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf over 1 1/16 miles, second by a half-length in the 1 1/2-mile Orchid Stakes last out.

“I think cutting back seems like a good move here,” Pletcher said. “She’s versatile enough she can be effective in a variety of races.”

In the Orchid, Surprisingly got stuck behind horses going into the last of three turns and had to wait while victorious McKulick swept forward with a clear outside run. In the Pegasus, Surprisingly rallied along the rail – the mare does not mind negotiating traffic and racing inside – after settling early in midpack.

“She’s capable of being close enough in this race,” Pletcher said.

Potential pace rivals for Heavenly Sunday include Fast as Flight, Join the Dance, and Be Your Best. Sparkle Blue scored a front-running win last out in the Grade 2 Hillsborough at Tampa, leading only because the Hillsborough was utterly void of speed. Still, 5-year-old Sparkle Blue suits 1 1/8-mile races and has improved steadily through her career.

“She’s not an impressive individual, more of a real workmanlike horse who just goes out and does her thing,” trainer Graham Motion said.

Aspen Grove, winner of the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational last summer, was stuck trying to rally into Sparkle Blue's walking Hillsborough pace, ran well to finish second, and merits Modesty respect.

Mouffy ended 2023 in good form, and though unproven at 1 1/8 miles, she is bred to stay trip. Fast As Flight looks more like a miler, while Join the Dance, Be Your Best, and Queens Command so far have not been fast enough, nor has the Brendan Walsh-trained Forever After All. Walsh’s second entrant, Caroline Street, holds more appeal in her 4-year-old debut.

Previously trained in Ireland by Joseph O’Brien, Caroline Street as a 2-year-old finished second by 1 1/2 lengths behind Epsom Derby and Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Auguste Rodin. In her first start at 3, she won a Group 3 at Naas over Lumiere Rock, third last fall in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera. Shipping to America last summer, Caroline Street raced inside on the worst part of a sodden grass course finishing fourth in the Saratoga Oaks.

“She seems like a nice filly,” Walsh said. “This will at least give her something to build on.”

Caroline Street could be ready for a competitive showing fresh off the bench, but to win the Modesty she and 10 others must catch Heavenly Sunday on Friday.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.