Hawthorne: Look Who's Here may outrun long odds in Showtime Deb

STICKNEY, Ill. – The fields for the pair of $100,000 Illinois-bred stakes for 2-year-olds on Saturday at Hawthorne immediately raise this question: Where are the boys?

While the Showtime Deb for fillies drew a healthy group of 12 entrants, only five horses were entered in the Sun Power for colts and geldings.

Disparate populations aside, the two races share characteristics: Both lack proven quality, and both are top-heavy with front-runners.

The Showtime Deb favorite is likely to be its only stakes winner, Sasy Ms Elizabeth, who led throughout the $52,000 All Sold Out Stakes on Sept. 10 at Fairmount Park, winning by 5 1/2 lengths. Sasy Ms Elizabeth has a blowout maiden win to back up that stakes score, but all three of her races have come at Fairmount, the home base of trainer Leroy Hellman. Sasy Ms Elizabeth did her most recent work at Hawthorne, breezing five furlongs from the gate on Oct. 27, but her lack of race experience over the local surface, an inside draw, and fairly short odds invite skepticism.

Sasy Ms Elizabeth is drawn in post 2, and inside her is Gabio, who notched one of the most impressive maiden wins of Hawthorne’s fall meet when, in her second start, she beat Illinois-breds by almost eight lengths. But here, too, there are serious questions, as Gabio stretches from 5 1/2 to six furlongs and is asked to repeat her recent performance on less than two weeks’ rest.

Look Who’s Here is 12-1 on the morning line and would be appealing at something close to that price. She’s drawn in post 12 but has sufficient speed to establish favorable position before the turn, and with four starts this year she possesses an experience and potential fitness edge. Look Who’s Here led and faded to third in her most recent race but can get a good stalking trip Saturday with an alert break.

Also worthy of consideration is the filly who finished just ahead of her last time, Church Road, one of the only established off-the-pace runners in the race.

The Showtime Deb, with its larger, more appealing field, goes as race 7, while the five-horse Sun Power is carded as race 3. Hayq’s Fable looks overmatched, and though any one of the four others can win, the edge goes to Solar Flair.

Solar Flair exits the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland, where he performed poorly, but in his start before won the Troy Our Boy at Fairmount over return rival Bad Boy Peter. Solar Flair has the rail but has won before from post 1, and his tactical versatility could serve him well with Bad Boy Peter, Rambling Richie, and Easy Solution all likely to gun for the front.