Haskell: Hot Rod Charlie most likely winner but it will not be easy

OCEANPORT, N.J. – The two best 3-year-olds Doug O’Neill has trained, I’ll Have Another and Nyquist, Kentucky Derby winners both, peaked in the spring. By July, the bloom was off their roses. I’ll Have Another’s last start came in the 2012 Preakness; Nyquist’s last win came in the 2016 Derby. Now comes Hot Rod Charlie, a good third in the Derby, a better second in the Belmont, and the most likely winner of the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Invitational on Saturday at Monmouth Park.

The Haskell separates the Triple Crown from the second half of the season, and unlike his O’Neill-trained predecessors, Hot Rod Charlie’s best days could lie in front of him.

“One day at a time, but as we speak right now, we’re excited about what possibilities lie ahead the rest of the year,” O’Neill said.

Flavien Prat rides Hot Rod Charlie, the 6-5 morning-line favorite in the seven-horse Haskell, a race that drew three implausible longshots – Basso, Pickin’ Time, and Antigravity – and four contenders. Joining Hot Rod Charlie at single-digit win odds are Mandaloun, who beat Hot Rod Charlie finishing second in the Derby; Midnight Bourbon, who twice beat Mandaloun at Fair Grounds and was second last out in the Preakness; and Following Sea, an extremely talented colt who has yet to try two turns or stakes competition and seems likely to lead this parade from post 1.

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Hot Rod Charlie loomed at the Derby quarter pole but couldn’t finish the job, still running admirably in defeat. He skipped the Preakness and ran the best race of his life in the Belmont, succumbing to 2-year-old champion Essential Quality after disputing a furious pace. A hard Belmont can shake the roots of a colt not ready for such exertion over 1 1/2 miles, but Hot Rod Charlie went home to California and came out of the fray fresh as a daisy. He logged four workouts at Santa Anita, and on Wednesday morning at Monmouth flew out of a dense fog like a horse doing a two-minute lick rather than merely galloping. Hot Rod Charlie bounced off the track, ready for more – and more he will get Saturday in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell.

The Haskell is the last of six stakes here Saturday, carded as race 12, post time 5:47 p.m. Eastern. It follows the Grade 1 United Nations, an 11-furlong turf contest, and will be broadcast on NBC Sports from 5-6 p.m. Eastern. The card starts at noon and the weather forecast is dicey, with a 50-50 chance of thunderstorms during racing. Betmakers, the global wagering company that has partnered with Monmouth to offer fixed-odds betting (available to ontrack patrons Saturday on dedicated wagering terminals), is offering a $1 million bonus to a winner of the Haskell, the Travers, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Hot Rod Charlie could hit all three targets. As a 2-year-old, Hot Rod Charlie required the addition of blinkers to bring forth his native ability, but on Prat’s recommendation after the Belmont, O’Neill experimented working Hot Rod Charlie without blinkers. He liked what he saw, and after six starts in equipment meant to restrict range of vision and narrow focus, Hot Rod Charlie can look at whatever he likes now.

“What we’ve seen the last few works without blinkers,” O’Neill said, “is him settle better and separate himself from his workmate. Younger horses, they’re sometimes most comfortable running with their buddies, and he definitely needed blinkers to help his focus and maturity. Now, his true natural ability is going to shine more without them.”

Hot Rod Charlie earned his slot in the Derby going wire to wire in the March 20 Louisiana Derby, though Mandaloun was heavily favored to win that race. Mandaloun has four wins, a second, and a third in his other six starts, but he was a no-show that day, checking in sixth with no apparent excuse – other, perhaps, than mental immaturity.

Trainer Brad Cox, believing Mandaloun had more to give than he was putting forth, added blinkers the month before, when Mandaloun won the Risen Star Stakes. Following the Louisiana Derby, the colt showed his talent, drawing abreast of Medina Spirit before perhaps failing to stay the Derby’s 1 1/4 miles.

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Cox and owner-breeder Juddmonte Farms eschewed further Triple Crown participation and made the Haskell the next major goal, but while Mandaloun won his prep here last month as the odds-on favorite in the Pegasus Stakes, he was less than impressive. Mandaloun and jockey Florent Geroux got squeezed at the start, putting them farther behind a slow pace than anticipated, but after circling the field and taking the lead, Mandaloun lost momentum, beating Weyburn by just a neck. The race, like all at Monmouth, was run under strict whip rules, with riders not permitted to use their crops to encourage their mounts. Still, Cox thinks Mandaloun is developing.

“I feel like he’s moved forward in his works by himself when we’ve asked him to breeze on his own since the Derby,” Cox said. “He’s sharper, does them a little easier.”

Geroux will have some decisions to make with Following Sea rolling from the rail and two quick horses, Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon drawn to his outside.

Paco Lopez picks up the mount on Midnight Bourbon, whose lone 2021 win came six months ago in the Lecomte Stakes. Midnight Bourbon broke flat-footed in the Derby, costing him any real chance, and was a solid second in the Preakness. He ran into a fresh winner in Rombauer, while coming back on two weeks’ rest. The Haskell marks his first start in two months.

“He’s a big, strong horse who has put in some excellent works,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “I honestly feel he’s continued to physically develop and will be a better horse the rest of the year.”

Following Sea notched a powerhouse Oaklawn Park maiden win for trainer Bob Baffert and was transferred to Todd Pletcher in New York following the Baffert-trained Medina Spirit’s positive drug test in the Derby.

Following Sea was considered for the June 5 Woody Stephens Stakes but instead dazzled winning a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race June 3, earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure while never asked for run by Joel Rosario. If Following Sea can carry his speed nine furlongs – and the Monmouth surface can be amenable to that – he won’t easily be passed.

“He’s a very classic Thoroughbred, leggy, athletic, splendid build with great action, very efficient,” said Pletcher.

Pletcher has excellent numbers stretching dirt horses out at Monmouth, though much less so with horses making their graded-stakes debut. It might not matter if Hot Rod Charlie runs like he should.