Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Wednesday 9/23

Through Sept. 13 – 50 days Top Selections - Overall
Win %: 272 for 702 (38.7%) ITM: 497 for 702 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $1,191.50 $2 ROI: $1.70
Best Bets: 24/32, $69.10 (+$5.10)
Spot Plays: 4/32, $21.80 (-$42.20)
Pick-4: 3,5,8/6/1,4,6/1,3,4 ($13.50)

Best Bet: Grace Hill (Race 6)
Spot Play: Always Artistic (Race 4)

Race 1 - Claiming $12,500

7 - DREAM OUT LOUD N won from the pocket in a $15k event two back, and nearly lasted while pressure mounted more recently. Past success against $20k noted; much easier spot awaits for the millionaire who is not lacking for current form. Nap's choice of three. 3 - LOOKINFORADVENTURE hit the board in five of six since rising to this level on Aug. 2. He can stalk, brush, or close from off deep cover just the same. Solid value option should the second flight fail in mid-stretch. 6 - REGAL HOPE reeled off four straight top-three finishes, including a win out of traffic and a narrow miss up the open stretch. He's likewise versatile.

Race 2 - Claiming $10,000

7 - CHARGER BLUE CHIP is Nap's choice of three after a pair of odds-on wins at this level by way of differing tactics. Form and versatility both encourage greatly. 6 - SWEET TALKIN SATIN pressed and swept his way to a pair of near misses at this level in his last two. The 37-time winner should have just enough pace to close into here. 1 - OWN IT has earned minor cheques consistently since rising to this level on Aug. 12. He's done more than OK from well off the pace, but this inside draw should help him make better use of closing ability.

Race 3 - Liberty Bell (PA-sired 2YO fillies)

3 - TREND hit the board in her last five stakes assignments, including a respectable chasing effort to maintain third from an earned pocket in the Stallion Series final. While winless, she's got the class edge here. 5 - MYREANNA fits a similar bill as Trend: winless but consistently capable in minor stakes. Gains Nap. 2 - GOO GOO DOLL won both at Ocean and Pocono, but was outmatched in PA Sire Stakes events earlier in the season. If she's on her game, she contends, but she needs to stay flat in order to attain best results.

Race 4 - F&M Claiming $12,500

6 - ENGLISH ROSE N pushed in the breeze to a going-away win over similar at Pocono two back, and since chased cover for a good second in last week's return outing. She's clearly proven, and she competes for high-percentage connections. 7 - ALWAYS ARTISTIC gave her all in a sustained first-over battle three weeks ago, and only lost by a half length to Enchanted Eva - who rallied off fresh second-over cover. Three back, she won well at this level from a cosy pocket. She won't need much relief in order to contend yet again. 1 - HOW ABOUT MURPH chased OK to save fourth at double digits in her last couple races, but has been troubled by traffic of late. Any semblance of a clearer trip can help her improve all the more; good candidate for inclusion in deeper exotics.

Race 5 - F&M Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - QUEEN LOSTRIS N sprinted clear and parried pressure in her last, only to be gathered in after doing so. Post relief can aid this time around - after all, she did wire her foes in her two most immediate starts at this level before that. 4 - SWEET LUCY LOU proved herself as a capable presser-stalker type in two tries against tougher since Cleary took over her training. Beware underlay potential. 7 - ANNIE HILL chased well to protect second from the pocket on the drop to this level last week after staying on in the breeze and emerging out of traffic for minors against tougher. 1 - AMERICAN EMPREESS N rises off a powerful third-level win, and 5 - ROYALTYWESTHO gains class relief and slight post relief after failing to fire in her last.

Race 6 - Liberty Bell (PA-sired 2YO fillies)

4 - GRACE HILL was narrowly outdone in the PA Sire Stakes final after winning all three preliminaries in which she took part. Far and away the class of this division; my strongest call on the day by a healthy margin. 3 - NATCHEZ BELLE reeled off a pair of overnight wins before stealing second at 33-1 in the Keystone Classic. She's starting to find her best after some early-season struggles. 2 - SNIPER HANOVER was engulfed on the point after setting far more ambitious fractions in her Keystone Classic split, but did stay on well for third from an earned tracking spot in her PASS consolation. Be mindful of underlay potential, but give her the respect she deserves noting recent improvement.

Race 7 - F&M Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

8 - FIRESIDE hit the board in all four of her tries at this course and class, including a win from out of mid-division five starts back. Wide draw only boosts this consistent filly's expected price. 3 - MARTINIQUE BEACH stuck around well for third at evens on the drop to this level last week ... and that was after she forced a :27 3/5 third quarter in the breeze! Keeps Nap; post relief should aid. 5 - ATOMIC FIREBALL never found a way into the Stallion Series final from astern, but she still closed ground well to finish fourth. Before that, she won a pair of Stallion Series prelims. The big challenge today: she's a 2-year-old taking on older company for the first time. I won't write her out, but it's a variable to be mindful of.

Race 8 - Liberty Bell (PA-sired 2YO fillies)

6 - MACKIE HANOVER is the only filly in this grouping to have hit the board in the upper circuit of the PA Sire Stakes, chasing for third in a prelim and finishing second after setting the pace in the consolation. Most recently, she won decisively at fives-on here. Every chance to remain undefeated over this racetrack. 2 - LADY NEWTON stayed on OK for third in the Keystone after enjoying minor success in minor stakes through the summer. Cosy draw keeps her close; clear sailing is a must for best results. 3 - SKYY demonstrated improved closing ability in her last two tries, and her raw speed is easily among the best in this group. Strong finisher figures well for all exotics.

Race 9 - F&M Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

4 - BARON REMY is one of four mares in this field to drop in from last week's top-level distaff, and of them, she did the most work and finished best. After stalking second-over cover, she pushed three-wide to only miss by a length at 15-1. Today, she drops below her most recent winning level. 6 - BETTOR JOY was just one-paced from an earned pocket in that same race, but she nearly beat tougher at Pocono the start before - nearly a month prior - after clearing from post 9. Expect stronger coming back on a shorter turnaround. 1 - INFINITE SYMBOL A invades from Hoosier after two tries in top-level company there yielded mixed results. She closed well at the end of her local qualifier last week; pressing ability is noted as well. Worth a shot in exotics if price holds.

Race 10 - F&M Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - MADAME LEZA A put it together at Pocono two weeks ago with a front-pacing effort against slightly lesser company. She seems to fare far better when involved to some degree from the outset. 1 - MCCOOLEN steps down for a second straight start, but showed promise in those upper-level outings earlier in the month: She closed more than respectably for minors in her last three, all against tougher and all at odds of 40-1 or longer. Solid value option on the drop. 3 - MONICA GALLAGHER invades from Yonkers after being outmatched by tougher in five tries there - but only once was she a complete non-factor. Further relief has got to aid, and this starting spot is kind enough.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 1 Race

8 - LOU ED ZEPPELIN exits stakes company after fast miles proved insufficient. His raw speed edge should carry OK here provided he can overcome the wide draw. 7 - WHAT ABOUT BOB has yet to hit the board in his career, but he did chase evenly for small cheques in NY Sire Stakes races on a consistent basis. Far easier await. 3 - WARRAWEE VICTOR is starting to come into his own, given recent top-three efforts at this level. Forgive his failed three-wide push into the far turn three back.

Race 12 - Liberty Bell (PA-sired 2YO fillies)

1 - LET 'ER BUCK drops precipitously from PASS events into this easier stakes assignment. As far as recent off-the-board finishes go, post 9 stung her at Pocono in the final, and she recovered pretty well from rearward dispatches in her last two prelims. Her first two prelims are more indicative of ability, especially noting that one win came from the point and the other came from off cover. 4 - SOUTHWIND MINA improved belatedly for minors in both her stakes assignments to date, and her closing speed has developed substantially to the point of making her the strongest finisher in this field. 3 - JANE DIAMOND won well on a clear lead two weeks ago before missing last week's assignment on account of transport issues. Likely pace of the race shouldn't have to face much pressure in the early going.

Race 13 - F&M Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - KOTARE YARRA N made a bid for second before flattening in her last, but she still held third. Further class relief can lift her further in this spot. 1 - CARDIFF cuts back to three turns after chasing just tougher for minors at both Ocean and Harrington. Pole should land her closer in the initial stages. 5 - DOROTHY'S LEGACY has been fine since dropping back to this level on Aug. 19, pressing and stalking her way into the superfecta in all four starts since. Gains Nap; reasonable inclusion.

Race 14 - Non-Winners 1 Race

1 - STEEL SCHOONER was overmatched in Stallion Series company, but didn't perform terribly. Class relief is significant; the pole can make an even finish stand out all the more. 8 - FATHER OF IRELAND pressed into the lead at the eighth pole on arrival last week, only to just be nabbed at the line. Wide draw is his prime obstacle; raw speed suits. 6 - DOMINIC DE VIE was subjected to sustained pressure in defeat last week, but he appeared much better than he did in break-laden efforts that sent him to the stewards' list in late summer. There's upside; mind value.

Race 15 - Liberty Bell (PA-sired 2YO fillies)

4 - YOU ATO DREAM pressed steadily and just missed in the PA Sire Stakes final after leading, pressing and stalking for second-place finishes in all four of her prelims. Class edge is clear as day. 7 - MAY KARP sprinted off powerfully to win the PA Sire Stakes consolation after a pair of strong front-end Stallion Series wins. Gains Nap; cedes post and class edges despite strong current form. 1 - LOVE MUFFIN has won 75% of her starts to date, including a solid front-end score in the Keystone Classic. Expect her to be in control of the early pace, but for how long?