Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Wednesday 8/5

Win %: 108 for 294 (36.7%) ITM: 202 for 294 (68.7%)
Win Dividends: $428.20 $2 ROI: $1.46
BB: 12/16, $35.00 (+$3.00) SP: 1/17, $4.20 (-$29.80)
Pick-4: 4,8/5,6,7,/2,6/2,5,6 ($18)
Best Bet: Captain Corey (Race 6)
Spot Play: Its Mesmerise N (Race 7)

Race 1 - Claiming $10,000

Two of these horses are looking for back-to-back wins at the level, and strong cases can be made for both. 3 - SPORTS CHARM showed significant improvement to win last week, and he did so after making two strong moves. Nap stays on the Garcia trainee; slim call on account of better expected value. 1 - SOUTHERN ALLIE is the likely target in this field after his dominant 5-length score last week. He's hit the board in his last three at the level and he figures to be prominent from the outset yet again. 6 - POP'S ROMEO and 7 - BOOGIE NIGHTS are credible minor options, the former dropping after bids from astern came up short, and the latter seeking a kinder journey off the shelf after early exertion proved costly.

Race 2 - PA Stallion Series

1 - AFTER WORK recovered from a break to push for the lead and only just be defeated in the end. Improvement over a solid debut noted; Gingras opts on. 7 - GOODASHIM failed to hit the board in two M1 starts, but his 1:55 mile from last week gives him a clear speed edge in the group. Tougher do await, mind. 8 - NEW LEGACY drops from Sire Stakes company, where he finished an even fourth at 10-1 at The Meadows in his last. He's tasked with another wide draw, but he hasn't lacked for staying power so far.

Race 3 - F&M Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - ANOTHER BEACH DAY floated, got locked in, and stayed even in her last. A second straight drop in class can amplify her staying power, and Nap opts aboard. 6 - DARKSHADEOFPALE N steps down as well after an uncovered trip and traffic trouble minimised her earning capability at The Meadowlands. Lots of opportunity for improvement awaits. 3 - ROCKLINDAROCK moves up a level after circling three-wide into a strong second last out. She has demonstrated steady improvement in terms of late pace, and now she gets Tetrick.

Race 4 - PA Stallion Series

6 - SUNNY CROCKETT seeks his third career win after pushing clear at Pocono and a three-move effort to just reach at The Meadows in a similar race a couple weeks ago. Save for his Pocono break two back, he has impressed thoroughly so far. 5 - LEPANTO wired Stallion Series company at The Meadows, but did significantly less work and faced significantly less pressure than Sunny Crockett. Tough to judge ability on a point-and-shoot outing, but there's definitely potential. 2 - SCIROCCO BIG JOHN broke last out, but was one-paced from an earned pocket against tougher stakes foes on debut. Cosy draw can land him close for a similar chasing effort.

Race 5 - F&M Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - MOMENTS OF JOY fought gamely under pressure on arrival last week, only to just be collared by the rising Its Mesmerise N. The 20-time winner dodges the sharp Kiwi this week and in fact drops from that solid outing. 7 - EXOTIC DANCE gave stout chase to Queen Lostris from an earned three-hole last week, and has consistently outperformed her odds since returning to action. Capable presser, stalker and closer. 5 - KAY'S DELIGHT was one-paced from the pocket a level above this one two weeks ago, yet still held third at 14-1. Relief can aid; midpack draw yields Morgan strategic options. For minors in the Hi-5, 8 - CATCH A SECRET steps down to her last winning level but must contend with another wide draw, and 4 - BRUNHILDA rose to this level last week and chased respectably for third at 17-1 after pressing mildly on the far side.

Race 6 - PA Sire Stakes

1a - CAPTAIN COREY was simply impressive in his career debut, sprinting off from his Sire Stakes foes at The Meadows to win in a resounding 1:54 1/5. The sky is the limit for the Svanstedt trainee who's clearly got his sire's turn of foot. 6 - ARNOLD N DICKY rises to PASS company after wiring Stallion Series foes out of post 7 at The Meadows and sprinting off at will through the final quarter. Solid week-over-week improvement has surely impressed thus far. 5 - TART TONGUE gave futile chase to Captain Corey at The Meadows but still held third. Potential for staying power was more apparent on debut.

Race 7 - F&M Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races, or $70,000

4 - ITS MESMERISE N found the winner's enclosure in her third American start after solid chasing efforts for second before that. Improved late pace since adding Lasix encourages, as does the fact that she's looking to win again at the same level after reaching off cover. 8 - SCUOLA HANOVER charged late after finding a seam in the four-path against tougher two weeks ago. While the draw doesn't help, class relief does and so should clear sailing any sooner than the sixteenth pole. 3 - ROYALTYWESTHO closed ground well in the final furlong in last week's toughest mares pace. A month prior, she chased for second in a similar field and won off a two-move trip three weeks before that. Expect sharper coming right back, but mind value in this stout group.

Race 8 - PA Stallion Series

7 - KEEPTHETAB HANOVER worked hard to clear at Pocono last out and was just narrowly collared by Mister Boinga, who rode a cosy pocket the whole mile. This one did virtually all the work in a narrow defeat, and deserves respect as such. 5 - CAPITAL T STORM debuts off a sharp qualifier, in which he opened up steadily on the far side. First-timer looked strong in that morning outing; demand value noting what remains unknown. 6 - GLACIER HANOVER is Dunn's choice after a 1:57 1/5 outing at M1 two weeks ago. While he faded off the home turn, he did a ton of work in the first six furlongs. Any kind of trip relief can yield improved results.

Race 9 - PA Stallion Series

6 - MYSTICAL KING hit the board in his last three, including a pillar-to-post score out of post 9 at Pocono three back. He boasts the strongest form of any in this field, and that is enough to carry him in a manageable Stallion Series split. 2 - THE IRISHMAN looks to bounce from a break in Sire Stakes company, and his 1:57 mile on debut indicates he has enough for this task. Inside draw lands him close with ease. 4 - CATELLO earned minors in all four of his overnight starts to date by way of even chasing efforts. Improved raw speed over that stretch encourages; solid minor option in exotics.

Race 10 - PA Sire Stakes

6 - IN RANGE seeks a third win in as many career starts after pouncing from an earned pocket to win his All-Stars event and coming back with a first-over score in a Meadows Sire Stakes split. As sharp as any here. 2 - TAKE ALL COMERS lifted late for second at 41-1 to Type A at The Meadows. I like the improvement I see in terms of staying power and raw speed; pressure afore could benefit this one greatly. 5 - PADRE tries stakes company for the first time after trotting in 1:54 4/5 at The Meadowlands a week and a half ago. Solid stayer rises markedly but has the potential to contend for at least a share with that sort of speed.

Race 11 - F&M Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - HURRICANE CALEIGH chased to hold third at Yonkers in her last, and while she rises on arrival, that 1:54 1/5 mile over four turns will carry a lot better here. Tetrick's back on and the pole will surely aid. 7 - MAY BRIDE HANOVER makes her second start back since February, and she looked solid off the shelf two weeks ago. After being caught in traffic, she still showed good late pace to close some ground. She's back with similar. 6 - ABUELITA HANOVER gets a kinder group in her second start back after a no-threat sixth behind a tough pair in Queen Lostris and Exotic Dance. Improvement is likely, even without accounting for the drop in class. Logical value inclusion in exotics.

Race 12 - PA Stallion Series

5 - MISTER BOINGA looks to build off a win, albeit a narrow one from a cosy pocket. That said, he gains Tetrick off a much improved outing. 3 - FATHER PATS SECRET had some gait issues last month, but he appeared much better in his Pocono qualifier last week. Buter's choice; mind value. 6 - MY SON TY HANOVER lifted into a no-match third behind Arnold N Dicky at The Meadows, and he only missed second by 1-1/2 lengths. Improvement noted; give him consideration in exotics off a better-than-looked effort.

Race 13 - F&M Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - FIRESIDE broke maiden three weeks ago after closing into second in each of her first two outings. Steady improvement and form edge noted; Tetrick opts to remain aboard. 7 - BITTY BITTY parried pressure on debut to win in 1:53 3/5, and she comes right back. She figures to be sharper as such, but a wide draw looms on the class hike. 5 - LIBSPEAK has faced winners twice so far this season, most recently chasing out of the pocket to just miss. Two back, she was affected by mid-race traffic trouble, so give that line a pass. There's enough upside for at least a minor.

Race 14 - Non-winners $2,500 in last 5

5 - SHEWEARSTHEPANTS made late inroads against tougher in each of her last three, but was too far away from the action to threaten. Now she bottoms out. 1 - HYPO FLIP gains post relief after wide draws kept her out of contention in her last three. Pellegrino's winning at a 33% clip this season; Nap can use the pole to full advantage, too. 2 - SNAPPY DRESSER stayed even after being towed into midfield last out. Similar await the minor player; Tetrick takes over.

Race 15 - PA Stallion Series

7 - LINDYS GOIN CRAZY seeks a second straight Stallion Series win after clearing from post 7 and edging away at The Meadows. This is almost an identical task. 6 - COMEONOVER HANOVER sustained progress wide of rivals to be a good second at 49-1 at The Meadows. Week-over-week improvement duly noted. 2 - ARGENTO faltered in upper stretch in the Arden, but he dug in to protect a no-match second in his first stakes assignment. Draw should keep him close and clear this time.