Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Wednesday 7/29

Win %: 108 for 294 (36.7%)
ITM: 202 for 294 (68.7%)
Win Dividends: $428.20
$2 ROI: $1.46
BB: 12/16, $35.00 (+$3.00)
SP: 1/17, $4.20 (-$29.80)
Best Bet: Bombshell Hanover (Race 11)
Spot Play: Exotic Dance (Race 14)
Pick-4: 4,5,8/1,4/3,5/3,8 ($12)

Race 1 - Claiming $10,000

1 - LYONS WILLIAM improved steadily with the winner's cover up the far side and stayed on respectably at 15-1 on the move to claiming company last week. Inside draw yields an easier task in a manageable group. 4 - BUGGER BRUSIER closed mildly out of traffic in the faster division, circling three-wide midway on the far turn before advancing. Gains Bongiorno. 8 - SPEEDLING was urged to stay even last week after battling back to win in 1:53 3/5 the start before. Capable, but will have to contend with a wide draw.

Race 2 - F&M Claiming $12,500

2 - SWEET LULLABY tired late in her third-place finish to McCoolen two weeks ago, but was used hard for position in a :26 4/5 first quarter in one of the stronger miles from $12.5k mares this season. Before that, she won well after parrying pressure. This kinder inside draw can serve to refresh her. 4 - SHES SPORTY A invaded from Yonkers last week, set the pace at this level, but was eclipsed in upper stretch by pocket rival Always Artistic. They meet again today, but this time, Shes Sporty A has the post advantage. 8 - ALWAYS ARTISTIC has proven time and again she can stalk and vault, and she's finished well in all three starts for Wright since the meet began. Take nothing away from her, but this wide draw adds yet another challenge.

Race 3 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

4 - SENDMETOTHESTARS stayed on well from an earned pocket last out, and he improved steadily without cover for a hard-earned third at the same level three back. Ability to take air is a big plus. 5 - BITTY BITTY turned in some sharp qualifying miles leading up to this debut. She can chase OK and her raw speed is ample. 7 - MAJOR NIGHT OUT toiled after being left behind up the back in her qualifier last week, but she still clocked a 1:54 2/5 mile. Miller's choice.

Race 4 - F&M Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races, or $70,000

2 - ITS MESMERISE N added Lasix last out, and she chased significantly better from an earned pocket to just miss. Sustained improvement duly noted. 3 - MOMENTS OF JOY was near the top of her class for a while this winter at Dover, and held her own for a couple minors at Harrington earlier in the month. The switch back to three turns can help her staying power along. 8 - CATCH A SECRET was shuffled some last out, but didn't lack for late pace. I'm inclined to forgive her July 8 line on account of heavy pressure into an intensifying pace through the far turn. Four of her foes rise, so this shapes up as an easier field despite the draw.

Race 5 - F&M Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - STOWAWAY HANOVER gains Tetrick after toiling in a fourth-place finish two weeks ago. Kinder foes await today. 7 - SWEETEST ANGEL tried a first-over push last week, only to level off at 19-1. Before that, she rallied well from off the pace in two Harrington outings this summer. 2 - AVERYS HAILSTORM chased well from earned tracking spots in two tries at Tioga. While tougher await on arrival, she gains a much kinder draw.

Race 6 - F&M Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

3 - PIRAEUS swung three-wide off the home turn in a second-level race last week and made mild ground, but was outkicked in a battle for minor honours. Further relief makes her late pace show up all the more. 1 - REALISTIC made uncovered gains into third up the far side but was one-paced in the run for home. Similar await; Allard's right back on. The big plus from last week: she did not regress after being forced into a pressing role. 8 - ELLA IS AWESOME gets a pass for her mid-race regression last week on account of severe traffic up the back. When she had room on the final turn, she stayed even. Clear sailing can help her prove a bigger factor.

Race 7 - Non-Winners 1 Race

5 - DRAVEN HANOVER never threatened in her All-Stars split at Pocono, but she opened her career with a respectable third-place effort in minor stakes company. Leaving ability and raw speed are ample for this group. 8 - SO LONG HANOVER chased mildly from a cosy pocket in his long-awaited debut, and his 1:58 1/5 mile behind the promising Khedive is jointly the fastest among most recent purse outings here. The eight-hole is his biggest obstacle. 4 - SVF BLUSHINGBRIDE looks to make amends for a break last week, but the last three-quarters of that race were mighty promising. After resetting, she chased down the field and lifted belatedly into fourth. A threat if flat; mind value.

Race 8 - F&M Non-Winners $20,000 Last 5 Starts, 9 Races, or $90,000

4 - ECLIPSE ME N can benefit most of all from the likely shape of this race - of three mares in search of back-to-back wins, two are best on the point. Conversely, this 27-time winner does her best work in pressing and stalking roles. Her ability to take air can carry her while others grind each other down. 1 - ALEXA'S POWER bumps up slightly after wiring Pocono rivals out of post 7 last week. She's reunited with Tetrick and the pole can negate the slight class hike, but there's a big threat for pace pressure. 8 - TANGO DANCER N seeks back-to-back wins like the above two, but she'll have the toughest task of the three from this wide draw. The upside: She gains Napolitano, who won six on Sunday.

Race 9 - F&M Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - PASS LINE BLUECHIP chased well to save second after being eclipsed by Oceania's bold backside blitz last week. Prior to that, she demonstrated pressing and stalking ability as well as good outside gate speed. She's been good since returning to action - just a couple steps shy of putting it all together. 3 - MALNIFICENT rises after powering clear of second-level foes on the far turn last week. The start before, she was reeled in after early exertion, and three back, she pressed well to just miss similar at Pocono. Another one steadily improving. 2 - ELLIEONTHEMOVE stayed on OK at 22-1 after saving ground last week. Inside draw lands her close to the action with ease again.

Race 10 - F&M Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

3 - WIGGLE DELIGHT makes her Stateside debut after mustering a couple minors in Toronto. She can close decently, but Gold races proved too tough for her. Easier await on arrival. 8 - WINNING WORDS rises after grinding her way to victory at odds-on at Pocono, and she's hit the board in her last four. Wide leaving ability isn't in question given her July 7 line, but the class hike is. 6 - ISETTE HANOVER was one-paced at odds-one from the pocket on the rise to this level last week, but McCarthy opts to return to this one after they won together three weeks ago.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 1 Race

4 - BOMBSHELL HANOVER made two moves to secure the early lead last week, only to be eclipsed by his pocket rival in the end. Much kinder draw and a largely unproven field help his cause. 7 - LIKE LIGHTNING LOU paced in 1:54 on debut, and a repeat of that effort stacks up much better in this field - he won't have to contend with anyone near the likes of The Greek Freak today! 6 - WARRAWEE VICTOR chased respectably for minors in his last two after posing no threat at all on debut. Improved staying power makes him a minor player at potentially colossal odds.

Race 12 - F&M Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - ENGLISH ROSE N closed powerfully down the grandstand side last week after being caught in third-over flow. Two back, she lifted late to just miss. Nap stays on this solid finisher. 1 - HEAVENLY BET rises after working up into the pocket on the backstretch and holding the runner-up spot. Pole can keep her close with ease. 6 - WWAR CRIMES invades from Ocean after pressing and tiring after a pair of frankly disastrous outings in June. Dover lines indicate the mare is capable of much better; Tetrick takes over today.

Race 13 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

6 - SUMMER RAE was a runner-up here on debut, and she returns after a failed middle move in NY Sire Stakes company. The daughter of Roll With Joe boasts a clear speed edge. 3 - SHEBEAKNOCKOUT capped her last couple qualifiers with improved late splits, and she's starting to show signs of improvement. 7 - HURRIKANEMYSHANNON never got involved from astern in her last two, but sub-1:56 miles are enough for a minor in this group.

Race 14 - F&M Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - QUEEN LOSTRIS N almost got it done at Pocono after clearing from post 9 last week, but gave way in mid-stretch after facing sustained pressure on the final turn. Post and class relief lift her the rest of the way - she's back to her most recent winning level. 7 - EXOTIC DANCE steps up from a fifth-place finish at M1, but note she made two distinct uncovered moves in the two fastest quarters of the race. Before that, she chased well off cover. Solid roughie option. 4 - I'M DONE TALKING loses Nap, but gains Tetrick after her third-level score last week. Harrington lines prove pressing and closing ability; form leaves little to desire.