Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Wednesday 11/4
Witherite - PHL (through Oct. 11 – 66 days)
Top Selections – Overall - Win %: 351 for 927
ITM: 648 for 927 - Win Dividends: $1,542.00 - $2 ROI: $1.66
Pick-4: 3,4,5,8/2,7/5,6/1,2,5 ($24)
Best Bet: Dream Out Loud N (Race 1)
Spot Play: Winning Words (Race 11)
Race 1 - Claiming $10,000
3 - DREAM OUT LOUD N looked much sharper in last week's repeat win over $12.5k company. Likely pacesetter has proven pressing ability as well; the new millionaire gets jammed in for $10k amid the strongest form of any despite a couple weeks off. Nap's choice. 6 - DONT JUDGE A BOOK rode the pocket to second-place finishes in three of his last four, including a narrow miss to Dream Out Loud N four back. There's not too much speed to his inside that he won't be able to find a close spot early. 5 - STICK WITH CRAMER drops again after an even showing at the $12.5k level last out. Closer cover can aid this reasonable minor option.
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Race 2 - F&M Non-Winners $4,700 Last 5 Starts
7 - WINDFALL PROFITS tired from the pocket in a tougher N5L event last week, but was able to stay on for minors against just easier at Yonkers before that. Tetrick's choice of three drops in class mightily. 5 - SOMTHNGABOUTMARY N failed to fire last out but chased tougher for minors two and three back. Further relief and a kinder trip can both aid. 3 - DOROTHY'S LEGACY improved stoutly from astern to just miss in her last. She's hit the board in four of her last seven, all at this level. Staying power a plus.
Race 3 - Claiming $10,000
1 - SWEET TALKIN SATIN gains Nap on arrival after a failed bid and traffic trouble hindered him in his last two. Pressing and stalking ability are both apparent in local lines. 4 - OWN IT hasn't been worse than fourth in two months, and today he gains Tetrick after even finishes from mid-division stalking trips. Can lift in this kinder group. 2 - STIRLING ESCORT won for $15k the last two times he raced, but that was nearly eight months ago. Layoff yields a lot of variables.
Race 4 - Claiming $12,500
7 - CATCH MY SHADOW rises after a pair of odds-on wins for $10k, both on the lead. Despite his outside draw, he's likely to only have Gunslinger Hill to out-sprint for control of the terms. 3 - GUNSLINGER HILL was a good second from the pocket in two of his last three, both at Pocono and at the $10k level. He rises as well on debut for Hastings; Simon's choice. 2 - BILLION DOLLAR DAY improved belatedly to save third at 11-1 on debut for DaCruz last week. Inside draw keeps him close enough to what seems to be a pretty cut-and-dry pace.
Race 5 - F&M Claiming $10,000-$12,500
4 - ALWAYS BE LUCY just reached out of traffic at Pocono last week after sustained pressing bids from wide draws came up short. Gains Tetrick on arrival; price potential is there. 1 - ENGLISH ROSE N battled back after being headed to win well at this level four back. She had her top-three streak broken at five in her last start, but her early exertion from post 8 gives her a built-in excuse. Kinder draw works to her benefit; Nap opts on. 8 - LIVINGINTHEDREAM will have to contend with post 8 on arrival, however she faces an easier group than those she chased for a no-match second at Harrington in her last. 3 - GATORS BEN WINNING should be able to get involved with ease from this inside draw, and 7 - AUDI BAYAMA makes her second start for Peña after an even finish from worse than midfield on debut against similar.
Race 6 - F&M Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000
4 - CRAZY CUTE simply couldn't get involved at this level from astern last week, but she didn't lack for staying power. Not only do easier foes await, but this draw can help her get back within striking range. 2 - DANCE CLUB graduated from the N5L ranks last week, and she did so in style. Strength of recent local wins encourages; be mindful of value on this rise to more experienced competition. 3 - BRUNHILDA wasn't terribly outmatched in top-level competition, but she didn't have the same oomph in her last two. She drops back to a winning level, but her scores five and six back came with the aid of favourable trips.
Race 7 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts
4 - BELL I NO his one of only three to have hit the board in their last try at this level, and his 1:53 3/5 raw time after an early brush is the strongest from last week. Nap takes over the lines. Slim call. 5 - CAPTAIN DISOMMA made steady gains from the back to save third at 57-1 in a similar race last out. Midpack draw puts the value player closer from the outset. 3 - Laredo Torpedo N looks to make amends for a break that knocked him out of contention a fortnight ago. It's worth noting he almost lasted on the lead at this level three back; mind value on the step back down.
Race 8 - F&M Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts
2 - QUEEN LOSTRIS N improved late in her last two tries at this level to just miss, and she held her ground on the point against similar four back. Post relief can get her near enough the pace where her late kick will matter most. 7 - ROYALTYWESTHO drops to her most recent winning level after a solid two-move effort yielded a near miss to Apple Hanover one class above this one. Her last two top-level starts indicate improving form. 4 - JUSLIKEAQUEEN was second in four of her last five and rises amid those improved pacesetting and stalking efforts. Gains Nap; solid minor choice despite lining up amid tougher.
Race 9 - F&M Non-Winners $20,101 Last 5 Starts, 9 Races or $90,000
6 - ECLIPSE ME N seeks her third win in four starts after a clear and commanding fifth-level score, a hard-earned front-end win at this level, and a narrow defeat to the pocketed Shes Pukka N most recently. She's done a lot of work in recent weeks, and the results prove she can sustain effort over long stretches. 5 - MACHNHOPE looks to bounce back after falling short - but gaining late - in her last two. She won convincingly both three and four back; clear sailing is an absolute must; mind value. 2 - LUCKY ARTIST A invades from Yonkers, where she just missed Preferred foes out of the back of the pack just last week. A stronger dispatch is a must for the Harris trainee to land close enough to the pace to suit her racing style, but she could offer good prices in exotics.
Race 10 - Non-Winners 1 Race
5 - LIGHT BLUE MOVERS broke on the far turn in his Simpson try behind tougher, but fared more than OK in fast miles in his last two starts for Svanstedt. That raw speed edge can carry against these maidens if he's able to stay flat. 2 - THE NUN never got involved in the Kindergarten, but nearly lasted locally two back. Ability to take pressure is encouraging. 1 - DOMINIC DE VIE makes sense as a minor player, to be sure. He's worked into the top four in all four of his starts for Taft, and he's done so from a variety of trips. Versatility encourages.
Race 11 - F&M Non-Winners 3 Races
6 - WINNING WORDS is my main price play of the afternoon on account of her earlier efforts this fall, including a good second to Marloe Hanover in the Simpson. After that, she was used hard to clear from post 8 at Pocono before yielding, being boxed at the half-mile pole, and toiling off the home turn. She shouldn't have to exert nearly as much this time around. 5 - MOANING LISA won at this level three back and most recently chased OK For third in her Simpson division. Similar case as Winning Words, but the price will likely be a lot shorter. 1 - PAIGE'S GIRL gave a strong account of herself in the Simpson, gaining to press the pace on the far turn before fading. She fared more than decently in past efforts at this level, and David Miller opts aboard. Minor option in a field of fillies who have largely been just shy at this level.
Race 12 - F&M Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts
7 - ROCK N ROLL BABE steps down slightly on arrival from Pocono, but the big change here is the addition of Napolitano. The track's leading driver can help this one finish better than evenly and get her involved more aggressively in what appears to be a paceless race. 2 - CORNER TABLE has just enough speed to land close, and the cosy draw works to her favour. She stalked OK in her last two tries at the level. 4 - SUDDEN PASSING gets a pass for her M1 outing on Oct. 23 given her exertion to control a :26 3/5 first quarter. Likely a contender, but unlikely to yield a hefty price.
Race 13 - Non-Winners 1 Race
1 - DANCING MACHINE broke 1:55 in both of his October lines, including an even effort with similar at Pocono last week. Stakes experience gives him the class edge here. 4 - YUPYUPYUP improved mildly to hit the board in each of his last three. He cedes the speed edge, but he's got clear staying power. 5 - ROCKYROAD HANOVER makes his second career start after a six-week layoff and a pretty good qualifier at M1. He's got chasing ability, but he'll need to be closer to the pace for best.
Race 14 - F&M Non-Winners $4,700 Last 5 Starts
1 - DARKRSHADEOFPALE N seeks back-to-back wins at this level after parrying pressure and edging clear at M1 on Saturday. The inside draw plays more fully to her strengths. 2 - ELENIARK A rises off a decisive Pocono win. She's best on the point, but she demonstrated some closing ability two and three back, too. 4 - AMANDEROSA drops back to her last winning level after early exertion into a quick pace did her in last time. She fared better the week before despite mid-race traffic trouble.