Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Wednesday 11/18

2020 Statistics (through Nov. 15 – 86 days)
Top Selections - Overall
Win %: 450 for 1,194 (37.7%)
ITM: 847 for 1,194 (70.9%)
Win Dividends: $1,988.10 - $2 ROI: $1.67
Pick-4: 3,7/2,5,6/1,3/1,3,5 ($18)
Best Bet: Misty Memory N (Race 4)
Spot Play: Dorothy's Legacy (Race 14)

Race 1 - Claiming $10,000

6 - DONT JUDGE A BOOK hit the exacta in five of his last six, and most recently won at this level. Form and class unite; as strong a candidate as any. 3 - MYSTERY ISLAND rises from $7.5k events at Pocono in recent weeks, but stands a good chance to handle the class hike given proven ability to sustain uncovered pushes through the far turn. The 52-time winner isn't lacking for back class. 7 - CATCH MY SHADOW never got involved in the slop last week, but brushed and held sway at odds-on three back. Capable with best; mind value.

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Race 2 - F&M Claiming $10,000-$12,500

5 - ALWAYS BE LUCY wired her last field at Pocono and has returned to good form in the last few weeks. Mostly racing upstate, but had a recent productive mile locally. Strong percentage connections; has tactical choices at the gate. Slim call. 8 - ENCHANTED EVA closed with strength to be a nearby third last week from her outer post up at Pocono and ships in today. Limited local history of recent, has had ups and downs, but presents an attractive option. Yannick chose. Mind value. 4 - ENGLISH ROSE N had trouble and went off stride last week. However, this was not characteristic and should be excused. Many good recent miles locally. Strength in connections; can win with a return to recent form. One more to think about.

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Race 3 - F&M Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

1 - ROLL WITH AMY charged home to just miss last week, and she pressed solidly into a quickening pace at Pocono three back, as well. Pole gives A-Nap tactical options galore. 5 - INDRA HANOVER takes on older company after reaching two back and turning in a solid extended bid on the far turn at Pocono more recently. Stakes-tested filly is coming into her own. 8 - RUN DEO RUN made late inroads for third in her last three starts at this level. Wide draw doesn't concern given staying power, at least as far as inclusion in exotics goes.

Race 4 - F&M Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - MISTY MEMORY N won well in her debut for Peña last week. The PEI shipper has a lot of upside and a fairly manageable set of second-level foes awaiting her. 4 - LOOKATMYART drops in from N4L events at Yonkers that simply have proven too tough. She did sustain wide gains to reach at 13-1 six back. Relief should aid. 7 - NEW TWIST invades from Dover following even but non-threatening upper-winners tries. Another one to gain significant relief on arrival.

Race 5 - F&M Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - A CRAFTY LADY won at a like level as a near favourite up at Pocono last week and now returns to our oval. Refreshed and useful as an anchoring lead for Hi-5s. New tactics turned things around; encouraging. 8 - HOTTIEONTHEHORIZON must accept the outermost post today, but has shown enough versatility to factor and advance against rivals in several recent miles, many of which were in higher classes. Has the back class to make solid play in this event. Adds value. 4 - YES DOUBLE DOWN middle moved on rivals last week with a brief threat. Best recent miles all occurred here and at Pocono and figures to offer value. 1 - BRUNHILDA catches the prime post today and is among the most versatile of the bunch. Shifting into an easier class will aid. Must use for deep exotics. 5 - JUSLIKEAQUEEN has tired in her last two finishes but had some recent successes at this level. Sufficient raw speed. Consider to share.

Race 6 - F&M Non-Winners $20,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - ABIGAIL DAWN won twice in her last three, and overcame some tough challenges on both occasions. Last time, she gained steadily in the breeze to reach - over sloppy going, no less. 5 - MACHNHOPE fought gamely at this level two back and since just missed from the pocket at M1 behind the very tough Caviart Ally. Beware major underlay potential. 3 - ECLIPSE ME N never got involved last time until far too late, but held her own on earned leads two and three back. Consistent contender when directly involved.

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Race 7 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

7 - MAJOR HOULIHAN pressed hard through the far turn at Pocono two weeks ago and held second after being rebuffed. Similar await this stakes-placed rookie on arrival. 3 - HARLEY Z TAM invades from Freehold after missing the board in two tries there this autumn. Switch to three turns can lift raw speed. 2 - LUCY IN THE SKY adds Lasix in her second east-coast start. Traffic trouble didn't help the Iowa invader on debut, admittedly. Raw speed is ample.

Race 8 - F&M Non-Winners $10,000 Last 4 Starts

5 - ARDEN HANOVER seeks back-to-back wins at this level after emerging late out of significant traffic. Recent lines indicate improving form. 2 - ABUELITA HANOVER worked hard to force a quickening pace last week, only to be nipped on the line after pushing clear. Easier await off that terrific effort. 6 - ROLLING GOING GONE rises after hitting the board in her last three starts from a variety of trips. Solid finisher figures well for deeper exotics with similar despite the hike.

Race 9 - F&M Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

3 - SHE’S NUN BETTER N qualified more than respectably on Nov. 7 in New Jersey and now returns to racing after two months' rest. Wins well if refreshed and ready; plenty quick for the condition. Dunn gets the lines. 1 - SHOULDABEENATD struggled to get into the game in stakes action at Hoosier after a sharp closing kick two prior there, but now returns to much more favourable circumstances. Nice draw, fast finisher. A lot to like. 4 - ESPRESSO MARTINI makes her second start after resting an extra week in October for health reasons. Capably performed against strong local company in early autumn. The same will do well here. Napolitano chose.

Race 10 - F&M Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

1 - BREAK THE DEAL hit the board in three of her four starts since breaking maiden. Traffic trouble up the far side at Pocono cost her most of all last time. A big threat if clear. 5 - MOANING LISA held her own with tougher on multiple occasions so far this season, and she won at this course and class five back. Stakes-placed filly gains Dunn; mind value. 3 - SOMEWHERE NORTH worked to victory on the rise to this level last week. Dunn opts off; raw speed will need to improve.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 1 Race

2 - DOMINIC DE VIE experienced trouble late in his last mile, but has raced well in many this fall, most were local. Among the most experienced and most overall success of the lineup. Tissue-thin call for this son of Cantab Hall to break maiden here. 1 - GINGER TREE DON receives the prime post today and is the other horse with substantial racing experience in the group. Loomed near at a high price last start; receives an extra week off. Potential drift of price. 5 - CLASSIC CON turned in a much-improved effort two starts prior and suffered substantial late trouble last time out. Also receiving a week’s extra rest. That race two starts prior does signal things were coming together.

Race 12 - F&M Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

1 - OVER SPEEDING made steady inroads and held third in a $10k event last week. Now she bottoms out off that refreshed outing. 4 - SNAPPY DRESSER worked steadily into a no-match second at this level last week after a couple flat efforts. A contender again with similar. 7 - TIME AND MOTION was a no-match third in the same race Snappy Dresser exits - the same race which saw PEI invader Misty Memory N sprint off at will. Key race angle, perhaps? Solid value play for exotics.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 1 Race

1 - YUPYUPYUP hit the board in his last five, and worked to save second from an earned pocket in his most recent. Pole keeps him close with ease and sharper longer. 6 - ISSA HORSE blasted clear from post 8 at Pocono, yielded, and held third after tiring - at 103-1, no less! Easier task awaits on arrival. 8 - GRETZKY is still in the Indianapolis stage of his career, but he's demonstrated closing speed that hints toward Edmonton potential. Lots of upside if he can fish out cover.

Race 14 - F&M Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - DOROTHY’S LEGACY is my value call of the day. She closed in attractively two weeks ago in her last to nearly catch her second win of the year. In very good form right now and drawn ideally to her preferred racing style, even though she shows versatility. McCarthy likely has choices off the gate. 5 - TOPVILLE ANGELINA loomed nearby throughout her last mile and has developed a solid skill in pressing and stalking. Was favoured last week and could be again. Fine connections, more than enough overall speed, and a must-use in any ticket. 6 - WINDFALL PROFITS made it all the way to the top briefly from her outer post, bidding well for a short period late before tiring some to be a nearby fifth. Leaving a little or floating might happen today. Will appreciate some speed to chase, as some starts at Yonkers this fall showed a little bit of closing skill.