Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Wednesday 10/7

Through Sept. 13 – 50 days - Top Selections - Overall
Win %: 272 for 702 (38.7%) ITM: 497 for 702 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $1,191.50 $2 ROI: $1.70
Pick-4: 3,5,6,7/2,3/1,3/1,2 ($16)
Best Bet: Dance Club (Race 8)
Spot Play: McCoolen (Race 5)

Race 1 - Claiming $10,000

3 - LYONS BEACHBOY returns from Pocono after pressing for a pair of runner-up finishes there. Ability to sustain wide, uncovered bids encourages; well suited for the class. 2 - ELEGANT LAUXMONT rises on arrival from Freehold after stalking and chasing lower-level company OK in his last two. Switch to three turns can help his raw speed; expect him to be closer to the pace from the cosy draw. 6 - ACE OF CLUBS makes his first start back in 7 months off a pair of respectable qualifying lines. He more than held his own with similar at Yonkers this winter, but he may need the start.

Race 2 - Claiming $12,500

3 – CANDELL shaves $2.5k off the price tag today and is my roughie choice of the card. His raw speed and some recent final quarters keep right up with this group and he is slotted in a position to easily leave, which has been his most favourable method in recent miles. Winning today requires his best in a while, but this setting suits. 2 – WAR DADDY outperformed his price last week on this course and steps up today. Drawn well for his racing style; has a great ITM habit of late in any setting tried. Useful. 7 – DREAM OUT LOUD N is also producing reliably of late, especially off two capable closes in recent weeks. If all repeats, expect some success again.

Race 3 - F&M Non-Winners $10,500 Last 5 Starts

1 - BARON REMY almost lasted on the point on the drop to this level, but broken equipment and sustained pressure on the far turn led to her game defeat. Before that, she was a solid minor player with significantly tougher. Every chance to convert this time around. 4 - QUEEN OF THE PRIDE kept up well from the pocket in the same race Baron Remy exits. She's chased to hit the board in three straight at this level or tougher since arriving from the Midwest. 7 - JIVE DANCING A rises amid good form, and could stalk or close her way into the ticket at hefty odds. Solid value option for exotics provided she can find a live flow.

Race 4 - Claiming $10,000

3 - ROCKY J SQUIRREL won for $10k from an earned pocket four back, and since was generally OK with just tougher. Likely to be involved from the outset in this proven spot. 4 - SWEET TALKIN SATIN pressed hard at this level last week, only to be turned aside by the ultra-game Neat. Proven presser-stalker reached the board in four of five at this level since returning. 6 - LOOKINFORADVENTURE can race from close up or far off the pace alike. Just last week, he circled boldly to just miss after being caught in a blind switch up the far side. The 45-time winner can pose a bigger threat if able to stay clear.

Race 5 - F&M Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

6 – MCCOOLEN bid well in the middle and later stages of her last mile, saving third. Several in this contest are capable, frequent early-speed types, and if the race sets up right, this is the primary danger. Passed the tired readily two starts prior. Slim call in a competitive Hi-5 event. 8 – AMANDEROSA was able to just wire the field last week as the favourite and comes up to the higher level again with renewed confidence, yet the post challenges. Much better since returning from New York; mind value. 4 – BRING ME DIAMONDS also wired her field last out. Joins from two bold-type performances at Pocono. Fits and plays readily with high-percentage conditioning a plus. 1 – TOPVILLE ANGELINA drops again and gets significant post relief. Raw speed fits for at least a slice. 5 – VH PRINCESS BREA is one more candidate to think about. Much improved in recent tries; takes a class hike like others here.

Race 6 - F&M Claiming $12,500

8 - ENGLISH ROSE N battled gamely to win two back, and since sustained her pursuit for second after forcing a :27 2/5 third quarter. Ability to both deliver and absorb pressure encourages an awful lot. 6 - EDGE OF ETERNITY invades from the Delmarva circuit after traffic trouble hindered her chances behind the much tougher Scuola Hanover at Harrington last week. Front-end Ocean win three back encourages, as do chasing efforts for minors since despite clear excuses. 4 - WORLDOFROCKZEE gains McCarthy after a respectable chasing effort for second at twelves on arrival two weeks ago. Credible minor option at a healthy price with similar.

Race 7 - F&M Non-Winners $20,000 Last 5 Starts

3 – MACHNHOPE is my tissue-thin call in this higher-value event. Excuse the last at Yonkers, as she's done excellent work locally and recently. Can leave or sit back. The right spot to get back into weekly success. 7 – DELISHKA N will be challenged some from this outer post, but she's taken well to the course in her recent return. Expect her to leave from the wings. Consistent later individual times attract. Can definitely win based on some recent miles and ability to be near or on the lead long-term. 5 – VORST closed smartly to score in her last, a like event at Pocono. Talented and versatile. Hard to not place higher and cannot be ignored; will be one of two chief beneficiaries if things get too fast up front. Honourable mention to 1 – BRUNHILDA, who seeks a third straight win on what will be three consecutive class hikes.

Race 8 - F&M Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

3 - DANCE CLUB looks to build off a sharp win in the Liberty Bell. Stakes-tested filly has a fairly clear class edge in this group and figures to be prominent with ease. Brennan's choice. 2 - LOOKATMYART sustained overland gains to upset at 13-1 in a N4L event at Pocono last out. This other prime contestant in the field shows both form and versatility. 1 - SHOTGUN PERSUASION switches back to three turns after a break cost her all chance at Harrington in her last. This does represent a step up from N3L and Stallion Series success over this course, mind.

Race 9 - F&M Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

1 - GOING GONE HANOVER won three of her last six outings, all against stakes company. Most recently, she worked hard for the lead in a :54 4/5 half before being overpowered by pocket rival Dance Club. Give her credit for the amount of work she's done in her recent wins. 3 - CRAZY CUTE rises after vaulting from the pocket at Pocono in her last. The versatile mare reeled off four straight top-three finishes and has proven she can handle nearly any sort of trip. 7 - ECLIPSE ME N pressed hard to just miss slightly tougher at Pocono last out, and won well at this level four back. Simon's choice.

Race 10 - F&M Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

2 - PAIGE'S GIRL returns to a winning level after failing to threaten in the Liberty Bell. On Sept. 16, she sprinted away from even mild pressure with plenty in reserve. Kind draw gets her close with ease again. 1 - DANCIN WITH ROSE could prove an upset candidate in this field with the aid of the pole. She wired similar six back, but hasn't fared so well from rearward trips since. 5 - WAYSIDE pressed, stalked and closed her way into the ticket in five of her last seven, all against stakes company. Raw speed more than suits, but will the value be there on this noticeable step down?

Race 11 - Non-Winners 1 Race

7 – AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN is my top choice in a race filled with many relative newcomers and a few with experience all seeking their first pari-mutuel win. A level local qualifier after over six weeks away encourages in a challenging race. Seems to be slightly improving. 3 – BORN TO BE GREAR had a significantly improved qualifier a week ago and is now making his formal debut for Christopher Temming's stable. If gait problems are solved, a chance to share. Made up several lengths in that prep, too. Appealing and potentially delivers a nice dividend. 6 - MELANIA drops from an even but non-threatening stakes outing, but has struggled when forced to chase from off the pace. Raw speed is ample for these; mind value.

Race 12 - F&M Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - SUDDEN PASSING makes her second start back from a brief spell. Last week, she just missed the tough Amanderosa - who is well proven against tougher - from a cosy pocket. Despite the draw, this assignment shapes up as easier. Retains Brennan. 2 - OOH REAL GOOD offered pace pressure in the Amanderosa race and only lost by a length. Expect better second out; solid price option. 6 - ROLLING GOING GONE drops to her last winning level after even but non-threatening tries from mid-division and worse in her last three. The drop can refresh; a closer dispatch will help her most.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 1 Race

3 – WARRAWEE VICTOR left from an outer post and always stayed in touch with the leaders, ultimately a close-by second. Likes to leave, good spot to do it, and a class level that has produced. A narrow call with several interesting competitors. 2 - YER SO BAD reliably landed in the money at Freehold throughout last month. If the son of Roll With Joe can better dictate early speed if that's the plan, he's formidable. Back in the early summer, his final quarters were potent. Fits and plays. 6 – STAR SPEAKER has produced some cashing finishes throughout recent weeks in this class - and always at high odds. Very capable presser-stalker is useful for at least a share.

Race 14 - F&M Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

2 - KEYSTONE IZZY maintained a no-match second on the drop to this level after being overpowered on the far turn. Easier yet await this afternoon. 3 - ROCKLINDAROCK only missed the runner-up spot by a length in the same race Keystone Izzy exits. Ability to sustain progress encourages. 1 - CORNER TABLE can benefit from post relief after failing to get involved and passing the tired up the pegs last week. Minor option with similar staying power.