Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Thursday 9/17

Best Bet: Mackie Hanover (Race 4)

Spot Play: Winning Legends (Race 11)

Pick-4: 4,5,8/2,4,7/1,4/1,5 ($18)

Race 1 - Claiming $15,000
1 - SEVENS HOPE A drops in from $20k competition at Pocono. In two starts there, he made mild progress from astern but failed to work into striking range from rearward dispatches. Class and post relief both help; local lines are indicative of ability. 5 - ONLYTHETUFFSURVIVE debuts for Mosher off the claim following an even effort in his last. Wins from the pocket and second-over at the level noted; Tim opts on. 2 - RATHER SWELL made lots of late ground in his last couple at the level. Kinder draw gets him closer early; live flow or clear sailing is a must. Still, he can boost exotic value in a big way.

Race 2 - Claiming $12,500
5 - SORTIE HANOVER won two of his last three and retains Napolitano at this proven level. The 19-time winner figures well to be lone speed from a favorable mid-pack starting spot. 1 - BOSS DU FOSSE tired late in his pursuit of Sortie Hanover last week, yet still held third after riding a cozy pocket. Back-to-back wins in August encourage; pole can keep him close. 2 - SKEEZIX never found a way into the race on debut for Ringler, but was able to hold position after inheriting two spots from breaking foes. He closed mildly in previous tries; post relief can land him close enough to share for a minor.

Race 3 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts
2 - MR HOUDINI rises after demonstrating ability to withstand and deliver pressure in two recent second-level events. All but two in this field are moving up in class, and Brennan takes over. 1 - MAJOR IMPACT just won from the pocket after stalking Mr Houdini last week. In July, he fared well enough from off the pace at this level and one above. 4 - PUDDIN N PIE chased well for second in two recent second-level tries, and was no threat from astern at this level between those outings. Mid-pack draw can land him closer to the action.

Race 4 - 2YO Fillies, Non-Winners 2 Races
2 - MACKIE HANOVER carries a massive class edge into this group: She's hit the board in all three stakes tries from various trips and tactics, and she dominated in her lone overnight start. Miller opts on; the one to beat. 3 - JANE DIAMOND seeks a repeat win at this level after a measured 1:54.1 score last Thursday. Similar await; this spot suits after mixed results in minor stakes assignments. 6 - STAR CAPTAIN was a one-paced third up the open stretch in her career debut, only missing second by 1-3/4 lengths while part of a second flight that closed in steadily to the measured Jane Diamond. Solid closing splits are most encouraging; credible minor option yet again.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000
Today's sub-feature can go a number of ways, and could yield some Hi-5 value as such. My slim top call is 7 - HENDERSON SEELSTER, who kicked cover to win at this level and who looks to rebound from an early break in last week's top-level trot. The plus side: He made a mild three-wide bid at the top of the stretch and still trotted in 1:53 3/5 in futile pursuit of Arabella's Cadet. Every chance to rebound at a proven level. 2 - CLIVE BIGSBY won well from the pocket at this level four back, and only just missed second down the outside last week while Rubber Duck drew off boldly. His effort was far better than the charted line indicates. 6 - BROADWAY ATHENA pressed to win at this level at 58-1 three back, 4 - FILLED DONUT just missed second up the pegs after being shuffled last in the same race Clive Bigsby exits, and 1 - BUEN CAMINO invades from Yonkers after early exertion from wide draws left him struggling some late.

Race 6 - 2YO Non-Winners 2 Races
3 - HULOU flattened after a mild bid up the far side in his last, but he gained into a :27 2/5 third quarter — the fastest of the race. Minor stakes success can carry here, though. 1 - BET MINE gets a pass from his last after being caught in the breeze the entire journey. The pole should yield a more favorable journey; speed is ample. 4 - GINGER TREE FINNY chased evenly for third at this level last week after being caught in the start before. Can factor again with clear sailing.

Race 7 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000
4 - PAULIE WALNUTS drops back from stakes company into this kinder spot. Just last Sunday, he lifted mildly into third behind Chestnut Hill in the PASS consolation. He seems to fare OK from off cover, but his lone win this season came from an earned pocket. 8 - INNISFALLEN did a lot of work in the breeze to reach in a N4L event at Pocono two weeks ago. Given his steady closing outing two back, I'm not so concerned by the wide draw. If anything, it can help his price. 5 - HANNAH held her own in minor stakes all summer, but her bid for the lead in the Stallion Series final came up short ultimately. Capable with her 'A' game; mind value.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $20,000 Last 4 Starts, 9 Races or $90,000
7 - RUBBER DUCK won well at 9-2 in his return outing, trouncing fifth-level foes with ease after six months out of action. After brushing from third to clear, he parried pressure and opened up stoutly while driven. Lots to like in today's feature off an effort that was incredibly sharp. 4 - SOUTHWIND AVENGER returns to Philly off a similarly sharp score in a N8L event at Yonkers. He seeks a third straight win after showing steady progress to the line in each of his last two; he seems on the right track again. 2 - GOES DOWN SMOOTH broke in a Yonkers Preferred last week, but looks to rebound on this switch back to three turns. He tore his way up the class ladder here through August, and held off pressure from the tough Arabella's Cadet to win at this class a fortnight ago. That said, this group became tougher with the entries of the aforementioned pair. Demand a fair price.

Race 9 - Winners 5-7 Races
1 - MACMORRIS HANOVER missed last week's assignment due to sickness, but can pick right back up where he left off from this favorable inside draw. He's hit the board in his last six — all at this level — and he does his best work when on or near the lead. Conversely, 4 - YANKEES BEAST does his best work from off the pace, having stalked and circled his way into the money in three of his last four. Tetrick stays aboard the 6-time winner who sustained a three-wide push through the last two furlongs to just miss Spee Club last week. 6 - GRAPPLE HANOVER was the one who forced the pace to intensify in that race, and he endured a tough first-over grind to only just miss by a nose. Mixed results before that noted, but he did win at this level on July 23. Value player for sure if he brings his best.

Race 10 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000
1 - MARGOT finds a much easier spot on this return east from The Meadows. Throughout her summer stakes campaign, she did her best work when on or near the pace. This draw can help her land there without much exertion. 5 - MUSCLESANDMASCARA took on tougher this summer but without the results. The step down is bound to attract attention; be mindful of value even with the sub-1:56 miles on the page. 3 - BANG BANG BOINGA pressed or stalked his way into top-four finishes in his last six, all at this level or in stakes company. Consistent factor could yield overlay potential owing to the above pair.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts
6 - WINNING LEGENDS charged home up the open stretch to score at 12-1 in his local debut on Aug. 20. After breaking the following week, he came back last week with a strong effort at 9-1 — following a stout middle move, he was just collared on the line by Cavill Hanover. He stays at this proven level; form edge noted. Expect another healthy price. 3 - AMADOR was used hard early to clear at this level 10 days ago, only to give way to pressure. Previous efforts at this level yielded stronger staying power for minors; post relief can sharpen him some. 5 - GINGER TREE SKYR pressed Rubber Duck to a :27 4/5 third quarter before fading last week, and now finds himself in a much kinder spot. The strength of his win at this level five back is noted, as is the reunion with David Miller.

Race 12 - Non-Winners 1 Race
2 - MIDNIGHT CITY turned in improved results in his last couple outings, and Nap opts to stay with him in this more manageable maiden assignment. 7 - KLASSEN HANOVER has value potential written all over him, especially if the pace folds up. He's chased well to hit the ticket his last three, all at over 20-1. 1 - DOODLE HANOVER enjoyed success on the fair circuit in what's been a busy summer so far. At Bloomsburg, she held off sustained pressure to win. Raw speed will improve over this course.

Race 13 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts
3 - GOLDEN SON was compromised by broken equipment last week, but previous outings show success with tougher in pacesetting, pocket and pressing bids. That consistency can shine on this step down. 4 - SWANS HONEY also steps down after rearward placement hindered in her last. Value option emerged well out of traffic to just miss tougher at 15-1 two back. 5 - PRESIDENTE ZETTE was fourth or better in five straight, and has demonstrated consistent pressing and stalking ability through that stretch. Rises mildly in his return from Lexington.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts
2 - VICKI ALL bottoms out after an even but no-menace outing in her last. She chased better to hit the board in two tries at this level back in July; relief should aid. 8 - NOBLE PRIZE improved well for fourth-place finishes in his last two against second-level company. While he drops and gains Nap, the wide draw remains a major obstacle. 7 - FASHION WINNER stayed on well for second on the drop to this level a week and a half ago. While today's foes are more manageable, will he be able to work into striking range with enough ease to stay on similarly?