Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Thursday 8/20

Pick-4: 5,6/2,3,4,6/2,6/4,6,7 ($24)
Win %: 185 for 463 (40.0%)
ITM: 328 for 463 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $751.70 $2 ROI: $1.62

Best Bets: 24/32, $69.10 (+$5.10)
Spot Plays: 4/32, $21.80 (-$42.20)

Best Bet: Party Girl Hill (Race 6)
Spot Play: Run Deo Run (Race 9)

Race 1 - Claiming $15,000

2 - IDEAL ROCKY drops from $20k events where he was troubled by a wide draw and traffic trouble. Raw speed suits and this draw is far kinder. 3 - WE THINK ALIKE was a one-paced third from the pocket three weeks ago after being swallowed up on a hard-earned lead in his first $15k start. Form is moving in the right direction. 4 - PREPPY ART was shuffled badly at M1 last out but managed to save third. Clear sailing and less early exertion can help him improve third out

Race 2 - Claiming $12,500

4 - INNER PEACE is Allard's choice over three others in this group after generally good results at the level - save for a break two back. He redeemed himself well last week with a solid enough pacesetting effort that saw him get worn down by Boss Du Fosse in upper stretch. Could he maybe end up lone speed today? 3 - HIGGS BOSON invades from Pocono after hitting the board at double digits in two of his last three. He can leave or rally off cover alike; solid value option. 8 - BOSS DU FOSSE sustained a first-over grind to win last week, but he'll have to manage this wide draw today. Still, he's proven he can take significant air, as he did both last week and four back.

Race 3 - PA Stallion Series

3 - CAVIART HEATHER seeks back-to-back Stallion Series wins after pressing to a narrow 7-2 score at Pocono. Improving filly can take a lot of air. 2 - THE BETHINATOR just missed last out after brushing and yielding, but she was a solid odds-on winner in two prior Stallion Series outings. The filly to beat; mind underlay potential. 1 - MARTINIQUE BEACH was outmatched in the Geers, but she stayed on admirably for minors in all three of her tries on this circuit. Pole gives Miller - who opts on - tactical options.

Race 4 - PA Stallion Series

6 - BLAZIN GRACE dropped from Sire Stakes company into this division in her last, and she almost held sway in a 1:52 1/5 mile. David stays aboard the four-time winner; class and raw speed edges encourage. 5 - ALEXA SKYE seeks her third Stallion Series win, but had the aid of a pocket ride in her narrow 1:54 victory at Pocono - nearly two seconds slower than Blazin Grace. Clearly capable, but mind value, to be sure. 2 - GIRL ON THE BEACH tired late after early exertion to prompt a fast pace at Pocono last out, but she battled stoutly to win a Stallion Series event at The Meadows three back. Can bounce; mind value.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - RIVER OTTER tired explicably after two moves out of post 9 in a tougher Pocono trot last out. Two back, he just missed at big odds at that level from a cosier - albeit earned - pocket ride. Kinder circumstances await on arrival. 2 - THIISGUYISONFIRE hasn't raced since January, but he more than held his own from off deep cover in similar M1 races during the winter. His qualifier last Tuesday indicates fitness; inside draw keeps him close with ease. 1 - WINNING AMERICAN never got involved from astern last week, but can chase for a share with greater ease from this inside draw. Pressing and mild closing lines in July indicate ability more truly. 6 - ALEXANDRA HANOVER rises again after a repeat win, and 8 - TIDQUIST closed well for second with similar at double digits both two and four back.

Race 6 - PA Sire Stakes

3 - PARTY GIRL HILL looks to complete a sweep of her PASS prelims after parrying pressure and sprinting off to a lifetime mark at Pocono. She can brush or grind it out first-over alike. Far and away the filly to beat. 5 - LYONS SENTINEL was just collard at Pocono after finishing a good second to Party Girl Hill in the Adioo Volo. She's only missed the exacta once in her career, and that came against unrestricted company in the Three Diamonds. 1 - ROCKNIFICENT enters off back-to-back wins in stakes company, including the Geers and a narrow pocket win in the Pocono PASS leg. Pole can land her close with more ease, but tougher rivals await today.

Race 7 - 2YO Fillies, Non-Winners 2 Races

5 - JK DISARRAY won at this course and class on debut, and since finished a game third in Stallion Series company just last week. Dunn takes over in Gingras's absence. 6 - JANE DIAMOND may still be a maiden, but her two-move Stallion Series outing last week impressed. After landing in third from post 7, she pressed on the far turn to challenge before levelling off. Similar relief awaits her. 4 - HOAX is pretty clearly a cut below the top two, but she's starting to come into her own. Consistent late gains are encouraging; minor share.

Race 8 - Winners of 5-7 Races

2 - MACMORRIS HANOVER hit the board in his last four at this level, including a chasing effort for third behind Crossfit and Winnerup last week after clearing from post 8 and yielding. Relief can sharpen him late in this race with many chances. 6 - YANKEES BEAST adds Lasix after clearing, yielding and toiling late last out. He fared better in the stretch two and three back, albeit to no avail. 3 - INTEROVER switches to three turns on arrival from Yonkers, and will have more of a chance to use late trot with the open stretch here. Simon opts on; clear sailing is a must after getting buried at the pegs last week.

Race 9 - PA Stallion Series

2 - ANNABELLE HANOVER was a credible fourth in last week's Sire Stakes at Pocono, and now finds herself as the only filly in this field to drop from the top circuit. Closing speed is consistently strong. 6 - RUN DEO RUN chased well to hit the board in all three Stallion Series assignments to date this season. Solid finisher figures to outperform her 8-1 morning line with ease with a repeat of her last. 4 - DREAM DANCING has been tearing up the fair circuit, and she won a Stallion Series race at 49-1 in July! She has proven able to lift well out of traffic or sustain wide bids alike. Can share with best.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races, or $70,000

6 - TIGHT LINES is one of five horses in this field to step up, but he's no stranger to upper-level company. Before his odds-on win two weeks ago, he pressed a :27 3/5 third quarter at this level and stuck around for second behind Max. Very capable. 4 - ARABELLA'S CADET debuts for Bongiorno after pressing efforts at Yonkers yielded in-the-money finishes against tougher. Likely catalyst for pace pressure gets another drop in class on arrival. 7 - THUNDER makes his second start since October this afternoon following a lackluster fifth-place finish at M1 two weeks ago. Stakes winner at three posted some mighty fast miles at Lexington last fall. Expect sharper second out, especially with Dunn opting to stay on.

Race 11 - PA Sire Stakes

4 - JK FIRST LADY was second in two PASS tries this season, but advanced off cover to take runner-up honours behind Party Girl Hill 11 days ago. That improved closing kick can carry her in this kinder division. 3 - NEW YEAR improved first out for Ryder with a good third-place effort at 22-1 in the Shady Daisy. Tetrick's back aboard the improving finisher; clear sailing shouldn't be that hard to come by. 1 - DRAMA ACT seeks to return to July form: before tiring late in her last two, she edged clear for an odds-on Sire Stakes win at The Meadows. Late-blooming rookie was an open-length stakes winner here in October; now she's still trying to find her 3-year-old form.

Race 12 - 2YO Non-Winners 2 Races

8 - HIPPESTCATINTOWN was just collared on debut last week. Wide draw poses an additional challenge, but a lack of early speed elsewhere in the field can help him overcome it. 4 - SHORE OF HIMSELF gains Nap after passing tired foes from astern in his local debut. He's restricted to rookies this time; kinder draw should aid. 5 - SUCCESSION earned minor cheques in two of three starts at this level. Even finishes and fast enough times can make him a bit more of a player in this kinder group.

Race 13 - PA Stallion Series

1 - MARLOE HANOVER toiled late at Pocono behind Party Girl Hill last week, but still managed a 1:50 1/5 mile in pursuit. Far easier await this 4-time winner on arrival. 6 - SWEET FILLY seeks back-to-back Stallion Series wins after a middle move proved the key at Pocono on debut for Beaver. Before then, she was just outmatched in PASS events. 4 - CORAL REEF HANOVER shared victory at The Meadows on July 25 after toiling for fifth in the upper circuit. Meadows lines indicate ample versatility.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

8 - HAMMER CREEK steps down again after earning minors in four of his last five against tougher. Wide draw is truly his biggest obstacle; Dunn's back on. 6 - CHARLES VII stayed on well for third on arrival last week after even efforts two and three back as well. This group is fairly manageable. 3 - FRONT STREET pressed and faded at Pocono last week ... and that was after leaving from the eight-hole for close position early. Keeps Nap; post relief should aid.

Race 15 - PA Stallion Series

7 - GOING GONE HANOVER has two wins and a second-place finish in Stallion Series company so far this season, with the wins coming from the point and the pocket alike. Strength is clear; McCarthy opts on. 4 - CANDY ON THE BEACH held her ground late to win on debut for Beaver at Pocono after Sire Stakes foes were simply too much for her to handle. Zeron opts to remain aboard. 1 - KEYSTONE EUREKA missed last week due to sickness, but held well to win her second Meadows Stallion outing after traffic trouble kept her from achieving anything more than second the start before. Pole keeps her close with ease.