Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Thursday 7/30

Win %: 108 for 294 (36.7%) ITM: 202 for 294 (68.7%)
Win Dividends: $428.20 $2 ROI: $1.46
BB: 12/16, $35.00 (+$3.00)
SP: 1/17, $4.20 (-$29.80)
Pick-4: 2,4/2,3,4/1,6,8/6,8 ($18)
Best Bet: AP Blaze Of Glory (Race 4)
Spot Play: Boxing Gloves (Race 6)

Race 1 - Claiming $15,000

4 - TORRID BROMAC N was fourth or better in all three of his starts since returning, and hasn't lacked for pace on any occasion. Form is ample for this kind group; Nap chooses on over two others. 5 - MACH DOMI didn't show much fight late earlier this month at Pocono, but hadn't raced for four months prior. He was an absolute bearcat in conditioned $15k events at Dover, boasting pressing and stalking ability alike. Expect better second out. 1 - HIGHLANDBEACHYCOVE drops in class and draws inside on arrival from Pocono. Kinder circumstances and a friendlier trip can yield better; mind value.

Race 2 - Claiming $12,500

3 - DARK POOL sustained a long first-over grind last week and duelled into the lead in upper stretch. The strength of his stretch drive encourages in this second start for $12.5k. Lots to like. 1 - GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE rallied into second again at this level last week despite being shuffled into midfield up the far side. He draws cosily yet again; a bigger threat with clear sailing. 7 - INNER PEACE was used to clear in a :27 1/5 quarter last week before giving way amid head-stretch pressure. The week before, the 22-time winner wired similar at odds-on. Can he bounce? Yes. Will the wide draw pose another issue? Quite possibly.

Race 3 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races, or $70,000

7 - WINNING SHADOW held gamely for third against tougher after being duelled down through the final turn, and he wired a like group two starts back. The switch to three turns can help his raw speed improve, and the longer run to the first turn is an aid as well. 4 - CLIVE BIGSBY drew off powerfully from fourth-level company at odds-on two weeks ago and rises back to this level. When he faced similar the week before, he kept a first-over push alive into a quickening pace. Form and versatility can carry him. 8 - ROCK OF CASHEL lifted off cover to just reach at Pocono in his last after belated bids for minors in two local tries this meet. Callahan opts on the 41-time winner; closer cover makes him a minor player.

Race 4 - 2YO Fillies, Non-Winners 2 Races

6 - AP BLAZE OF GLORY won well on debut at this level three weeks ago. Her proven ability to edge away late encourages in a field that only see a couple minor Stallion Series players invade. Brennan stays aboard. 2 - BYTHEWAY HANOVER chased for minors at large odds in both her Stallion Series outings so far. Easier await the proven finisher. 1 - PEAKS CRUISER never got involved from astern in two stakes tries. The pole can make her even finishes more effective by way of a closer stalking spot.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - GOES DOWN SMOOTH drops significantly after forcing a :27 3/5 third quarter in the breeze at Pocono last out and keeping his pressure alive through the far turn. There's no doubting his ability; he earned minors in June Graduate divisions. 6 - FILLED DONUT ... I don't understand why he doesn't get more respect at the windows. He's hit the board in his last three tries at this level — and at 13-1 last week. Clear sailing bodes well for him, to be sure. 1 - WINNERESS can benefit from post relief after failing to threaten in his last two. Three back, he stalked closely and chased mildly to protect third.

Race 6 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

8 - BOXING GLOVES swung wide heading for the far turn last week and pressed all the way to the line despite being outkicked for minors. He's been good since leaving fourth-level company; further relief can carry him the rest of the way. 4 - MOSCONI HANOVER drops similarly after clearing, yielding, and saving third out of traffic at 19-1 in his last. This group should be much kinder, and so should the journey with Boxing Gloves being the only true presser in the bunch. 1 - D'DREAM failed to fire three-wide in her last, but surged for a 43-1 upset two back. Class relief and the pole can help her boost exotic value at the least.

Race 7 - Winners 5-7 Races

4 - CROSSFIT lost to Grapple Hanover last week, but there are two reasons I give him the edge today: First, he endured an uncovered grind into a head-stretch lead, and second, he enjoys a much more favourable draw. No way we get 15-1 on him today, but value should still be pretty generous. 2 - MACMORRIS HANOVER chased to hit the ticket in his last two at the level after exerting from outside draws to land close. Post relief is his biggest positive change today. 8 - GRAPPLE HANOVER was a good second in his first two July starts, and he finally won at the level last week after stalking Crossfit's cover and vaulting clear. The big variable here: how will he handle post 8?

Race 8 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races, or $70,000

This co-featured event stacks up as tougher than the typical fifth-level event on account of all eight competitors racing in tougher events in their most recent starts. From a handicapping standpoint, it's pretty tough too - lots of credible cases present themselves. 2 - HOME'N DRY gets a slim call after working to protect second behind Morairtime last week. More impressive is that it was his first start in 4-1/2 months. Expect sharper from the Dover Open winner coming back. 3 - TIGHT LINES also won at the Open ranks this past winter, and he broke 1:53 with minor placings against tougher in each of his last two tries. The 26-time winner is warming back up. 4 - MAX never got involved at Pocono last out in pursuit of Crystal Fashion, but held sway a half level above this one two starts back. Price is the big question mark on the 18-time winner.

Race 9 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

8 - IRON MINE DIVA looks to repeat at this level after battling between foes for the lead and opening up in hand last week. She boasts a clear raw speed edge, too. 1 - MEANTTOBE DE VIE worked hard to secure the pocket in that same race, only to tire amid his chase on the far turn. Post relief can give him more in the tank for the stretch drive; Miller opts to remain on. 6 - KHEDIVE takes on winners for the first time after wiring last week's foes out of post 7. He's demonstrated steady improvement since first lining up behind the starter just last month.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - NOMO VOLO passed horses steadily up the open stretch to gain a no-match second last week, but it's her effort the week before that I'm more sold on. At this level, she lost cover into the far turn, yet kept her chase alive to only miss by 1-1/2 lengths. That staying power can go along way in this easier fourth-level race. 8 - ATABOY HANOVER almost lasted on the lead in third-level company last week after chasing evenly at Pocono the start before. The wide draw is his biggest obstacle today - he's one of six to step up in class, so the hike doesn't concern me as much. Nap does opt on over two others. 1 - MR HOUDINI is the only horse in the race to drop in class, and given the relative motion of the others, this shapes up more as a double drop. While he worked to win just below this level on July 5 and can finish well as such, he finished flatly in his last two. Be mindful of value on account of all the above.

Race 11 - 2YO Non-Winners 2 Races

7 - ANDRES HANOVER won his Stallion Series debut and chased respectably in the breeze since then at The Meadows. Much easier await the son of stakes winner Anadarko Hanover. 3 - YANKEE LITIGATOR also drops from Stallion Series company, but was no threat off excess cover in his last and no threat from astern on debut at Pocono. He'll need to get closer to make better use of solid raw speed; he's availed that chance here. 1 - MOVE THE LINE flattened late on debut, but still showed enough to factor for a minor in this group. Pole can yield another cosy journey.

Race 12 - Non-Winners 1 Race

5 - BRUTALLY LUCKY almost got there last week after circling three-wide into the far turn, but he couldn't reach a fresh Baby Donut, who inherited the lead at the eighth pole. Week-over-week improvement noted. 6 - EVENING STROLL drops in from stakes company and finished second in each of her first two starts. Dunn opts on the rookie, but how will she fare against older? Mind value. 8 - RUN LIKE HILL broke in his local debut after making most of the pace - it was in the race that Baby Donut won, consequently. If he stays flat for another furlong, he probably wins.

Race 13 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

1 - BOSS DU FOSSE pushed steadily up the far side and through the far turn, and held on respectably after being rebuffed by Raceace. Now, the 12-time winner drops again after a solid outing. 2 - SODA PUMP cleared, yielded, and gave way for second only in the last sixteenth last week. The kindest draw he's had in some time can sharpen him more for the stretch. 7 - SWANS HONEY hasn't done much of late, but nor has she lacked for late trot. In terms of raw speed, she's got enough for a minor in this group provided she can land better cover. Miller opts on.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - NEED LUCK N qualified well last Tuesday nearly five months after his final start in New Zealand. On Feb. 29 in a nine-furlong race over turf at Taranaki, he was last of six early, moved third-over on the far turn, and lifted three-wide into third. Two days before, he overcame a 30-metre handicap to win over 13 furlongs on the grass at Stratford - pushing four-wide in the straight and accelerating to reach from off the pace. There's no disputing he's a strong finisher, and the switch to limestone will surely boost his raw speed. 1 - HAMMER CREEK chased evenly last week after pressing and tiring but holding third two back. Inside draw can land him closer to the pace. 6 - WARRAWEE SHIPSHAPE invades from The Meadowlands after even efforts there yielded mixed results. This group shapes up as a good bit more manageable, especially in terms of staying power.