Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Thursday 7/16

Meet Stats: 25 - 70 (35.7%), $103.00 (-$37.00)
Best Bets: 4 - 5, $10.20 (+$0.20)
Spot Plays: 0 - 5, $0.00 (-$10.00)
Best Bet: Rome Pays Off (Race 8)
Spot Play: Filled Donut (Race 12)

Race 1 - Claiming $12,500

2 - GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE chased well in his June 30 qualifier. Before struggling in his last two starts of the Dover meet, he proved himself as a capable and versatile contender for $15k. If the qualifier is any indication, he should be back in form. 5 - INNER PEACE won his qualifier last Tuesday and seems poised to return after a four-month spell. Forgive his outing two back due to severe traffic trouble. Class relief can aid. 4 - ELO HANOVER rallied off cover for claiming wins in the winter part of the Pocono season. Gains Tetrick on arrival; fitness remains in question.

Race 2 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - WINNERESS rose from a third-level win and chased out of traffic to save third at this level last out. Nap opts to remain on for Garcia; class and form noted. 1 - WINNING AMERICAN sprinted off to a clear odds-on win last Friday. Pole helps with the class hike, as do pressing and closing ability, but will the value suit? 6 - IZOH is a solid roughie option in this field if only he can manage a clearer journey. He was urged to mild late gains last week, but came up short in a battle for the minors after being hemmed in badly on the final turn.

Race 3 - 2-Year-Old Fillies, Non-Winners 2 Races

6 - JK DISARRAY powered clear of her qualifying foes on July 3, and she holds overall speed and closing edges on this group. 4 - THEE DOUBLE DEUCE comes close in terms of late kick, and her week-over-week improvement in local qualifiers is a plus. 7 - GABBY'S GIRL is Miller's choice in the field after an even chasing effort for fourth in Stallion Series company. Easier await here.

Race 4 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

8 - VALLEY OF SIN was shuffled severely three Thursdays ago, but emerged out of traffic to only miss a tripped-out Winneress by a length. Versatile veteran has overcome some mighty tough journeys in his 131-start career. 3 - EI EI O drops after fanning four-wide and lifting into third at 14-1 last week. Easier await this consistently decent finisher. 6 - MAJOR IMPACT rises after pushing in the breeze to beat second-level rivals in his last. Gradual improvement since returning to action is duly noted; that form upswing can help him on the rise.

Race 5 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

5 - DON GRIGIO demonstrated steady improvement through his last few Pocono lines. Even three back, he pressed a :28 4/5 third quarter before flattening, but he won powerfully since then. Current momentum encourages most of all. 2 - SCIROCCO PATRICK toiled in minor stakes last year, but has come back well off a long winter break. He reached from an earned pocket to break maiden last week, and his inside draw can keep him close to these winners. 1 - BANG BANG BOINGA can add value to the Hi-5 via his inside draw and the addition of David Miller, 7 - PROTEAS has been fourth or better in three starts to date this season, and 6 - HIGHWAY TO THE SKY seeks to improve second out after a flat rearward outing on July 3.

Race 6 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

3 - SHOW EM ALL LINDY made steady headway to take second in a similar field at Pocono last Tuesday after an understandably failed pressing bid at Tioga. This group shapes up as even a bit kinder. 8 - WAYWARD MAN chased to protect a no-match second two back and rallied from farther back to gain fourth since. Today, he bottoms out on the class ladder amid improving form. 4 - R SAM gains Tetrick after passing tired rivals from astern in his last. Midpack draw can enable a closer trip for the veteran.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races, or $70,000

This shapes up as an incredibly tough fifth-level trot, with stakes horses and Open horses converging in search of a bit of relief. 2 - STORMY KROMER gets the nod from me here after a game effort behind Pat Matters in a top-level Pocono trot on July 4. He cleared, yielded, and chased to just miss at 36-1 ... in 1:51 4/5! Now Tetrick opts to take over the lines. 5 - TROLLEY weakened at M1 in his last behind a 1:50 2/5 mile from Don't Let'em, but chase well here two back. The 19-time winner is not lacking for back class; that can carry. 8 - DAYSON makes his fourth start back after toiling form astern against tougher. Sub-:27 closing splits at M1 indicate fitness; he'll need a stronger start to stay in contention, though.

Race 8 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

4 - ROME PAYSS OFF drilled two sharp qualifiers at M1 in preparation for his return to action. Last year's Crown runner-up to Amigo Volo towers over this group. The one to beat. 2 - CLASSY GUY has already had a few races under his belt, and he's fared OK at this level from earned stalking spots. Tetrick takes over. 1 - STARRYSTARRYNIGHT is a credible minor option in her third start back. Raw speed is ample for these, and the pole can keep her close with ease.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

Here's the angle I love - horse dropping in class after doing a lot of work through the race and not regressing. 3 - SIR JOHN F fits that bill to a T after his first-over grind into Boots N Chains came up only three-quarters of a length short. Further relief can lift him the rest of the way. 4 - RENTIER circled three-wide and closed belatedly in that same race, but had the aid of cover up the far side. He vaulted past tougher from the pocket as recently as February. 1 - CAJOLE HANOVER will try again at this level after giving way narrowly to sustained pressure in his last. Gains Miller.

Race 10 - Winners of 5-7 Races

6 - BROWNIE makes his second start with Lasix after being outmatched by Next Level Stuff at this class last week. Recent improvement since returning to action is duly noted. 7 - MACMORRIS HANOVER was even amid traffic in his last, and was worn down under sustained pressure the week before. Fall form proved ample for this group. 4 - REMARKABLE DE VIE is the only horse in the field looking for back-to-back wins, and he rises after just reaching from the pocket at 14-1. He can convert, but he'll need a lot to go his way.

Race 11 - 2-Year-Olds, Non-Winners 2 Races

7 - ROLLBIN parried pressure for a Stallion Series win two weeks ago, and he returns to face a markedly kinder group after his 1:55.2 win. 3 - MIKI U SO FINE improved belatedly out of midfield for third in his debut, and his 1:54 mile gives him the speed edge. Tetrick opts away, mind. 8 - HIS BEATS HANOVER adds Lasix after passing tired foes from astern in his Stallion Series debut. Easier await; he'll need a stronger start to land close from the far outside.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

While Clive Bigsby looks the part of a favourite, I'm going to try to beat him with 3 - FILLED DONUT. He wired this level two back, and raced his heart out one level above this one last Thursday. After clearing from post 8, he fought gamely until the final sixteenth, when Broadway Athena reeled him in. Post and class relief are enough to lift him. 2 - CLIVE BIGSBY makes a similar drop from fifth-level company, and while he endured a first-over grind into a near miss, he did that work in the slower division. As such, while he looks good on paper, he's going to have to elevate his game to keep with Filled Donut. 1 - ALEXANDRIA HANOVER drops and draws inside after posing no threat from astern at Pocono last out. Nap chooses her over two others.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 1 Race

8 - SERMON closed powerfully to just miss at 21-1 at M1 on June 26. While it's been almost a month since then, he shows signs of ability others simply have lacked thus far. Gingras's choice. 1 - HABANERO K chased for minors on the Sire Stakes circuit last year, and she makes her second start as a 3-year-old here. Pole can help her in her Lorentzon debut, and so can Tetrick. 7 - SEBASTIEN DUHARAS improved steadily through his three Woodbine lines, despite regressing late in his last mile. Easier await on this side of the 49th.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - HAMMER CREEK tired after working clear from post 8 on the rise to this level. Given the strength of his June 25 win, the move to an inside barrier can help him stay sharp for longer. Can bounce. 7 - PANAMANIAN HANOVER makes his first start since February, and he does so just above a level where he chased for second this winter. His last qualifier demonstrated enough staying power for these, and now Tetrick is back aboard. 4 - POWERFUL YIELD was never close enough to threaten last out, but his 1:55 4/5 raw time fits in well with this group. Post relief lands him closer.