Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Thursday 12/24

2020 Statistics (through Nov. 15 – 86 days)
Top Selections – Overall:
Win %: 450 for 1,194 (37.7%) ITM: 847 for 1,194 (70.9%)
Win Dividends: $1,988.10 - $2 ROI: $1.67
Pick-4: 4,6/4,5,8/7/1,4 ($6)
Best Bet: Itsonlymoneyhoney (Race 13)
Spot Play: Need Luck N (Race 10)

Race 1 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

5 - HEAT WAVE HANOVER rose to this level two weeks ago, pressed into the lead heading to the far turn, but faded off the corner for home while Context surged to the fore. Credit the work she did in the middle half; easier await. 3 - GINGER TREE BREN won her last two against N3L company and now rises amid strong form. Raw speed suits; step up presents a new wrinkle. Gingras' choice; mind value. 1 - HUNTING AS worked hard to clear from post 7 in the Context race, and fought gamely on the far turn before giving way in the final furlong. Post relief can aid; good value option.

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Race 2 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - SILVERMASS VOLO made a lot of ground to hit the superfecta in his last two tries, and chased reasonably from mid-division to do the same three back. Cosier draw can yield a stronger stretch drive from the 12-time winner. 6 - IZOH pressed well to hit the board in his last two at the level after toiling against tougher earlier in the fall. His form is on the upswing again, it seems. 3 - GUARD YOUR HEARTS drops to her last winning level after being simply outmatched by the likes of MacMorris Hanover and Pappy Go Go. Will the step down be enough to help her form rebound? Consider carefully that she had a lot go her way in victory five back. Mind value as such.

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Race 3 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

7 - HOTSPRINGS VOLO flattened after her first-over push last week, but demonstrated grit in her more recent Kentucky starts. Improving; gains Gingras. 3 - BOUNTIFUL BRITTNEY chased well in her local debut, and has worked into the board from all sorts of trips in four of her last five. Versatility is a plus; gains Napolitano. 8 - WORTHY OF HONOR hasn't been worse than fourth in his last four starts, and figures to be among the few early presences in this field despite the wide draw. Can benefit from a lack of pace pressure.

Race 4 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

3 - RENTIER gained steadily up the far side to push the pace through the far turn on the drop to this level last out, but his :27 4/5 third quarter in the breeze stung him pretty hard. Debuts for Marsh; easier trip can aid. 5 - NICE STUFF failed to fire off an overland bid in a faster first-level division last out, but chased well to protect second the week before. Simon opts to stay aboard. 8 - LANDONFITZ missed his last, but almost converted at this level three weeks ago. Wide draw is the prime obstacle, but he's certainly capable under the right circumstances.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $50,000

2 - GOES DOWN SMOOTH is a force when he doesn't break at the start. He did so in his last, but accounted well for himself in a hard-earned runner-up finish the start before. Pressing ability with tougher foes is a good indicator in this far kinder event. 5 - HASHTAGMADEYALOOK narrowly held against similar four back in a 1:52 4/5 effort at Pocono. He's been fourth or better in three since from midfield or astern. A closer tracking spot can lift him further. 4 - LOYAL FOX HANOVER was outmatched in fifth-level company lately, but wasn't devoid of staying power, either. The drop can aid. 7 - MYSTICAL WYNN and 8 - SVF CASH DEPOSIT were top-two finishers in their last tries at this level, and more recently held enough for minors at big odds against just tougher.

Race 6 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

1 - FATHER DUNN circled boldly into second on arrival last Friday, but was simply no match for Itsonlymoneyhoney. The stalker-closer maintains strong form; lots to like. 7 - BEAUTIFUL MRS A cleared, yielded, and chased to protect third after being boxed in her last. A similar effort fits in well for another sizeable share. 6 - CHURCH SOUT adds Lasix after a flat outing two weeks ago. Before that, he reeled off five straight in-the-money finishes. Value player gains Gingras.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

4 - TROLLER was shuffled mildly last out, but sustained a bid through the home turn to save second and give stout chase to Lindy's Big Bang. A big threat if clearer; only one drops in from second-level company. 6 - TW LAUXMONT was an even fourth on the step down to this level last out. Raw speed edge noted. 1 - D' DREAM improved belatedly for third at 41-1 last out after even finishes for minors two and three back. Pole keeps her close.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

8 - ROCK OF CASHEL has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence in recent months, as is evident in two wins and two second-place finishes in his last six starts. Raw speed and staying power are both refreshed; wide draw is the 44-time winner's biggest obstacle today. That said, this field isn't as hefty as the upper-level groups he's chased after lately. Plenty to like about him. 5 - MAX struggled to get involved from outside draws in his last two M1 outings, but he did wire a like field from post 8 here on Nov. 25. Kinder starting spot helps; mind value. 4 - TWO AM historically has done well here in upper-level races. Two back, he rallied into second at 15-1 against tougher at Yonkers. Switch to three turns can get him back on the right track.

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Race 9 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

7 - CONTEXT impressively circled three-wide through the last three furlongs to win on the step up to this level a fortnight ago. The presser-stalker is ramping up mightily for Lorentzon, having accounted for three wins and a narrow miss since joining her barn. My Pick-4 single can conceivably provide some healthy value. 2 - PRESIDENT is a strong option for boosting value in exotics given three runner-up finishes in five tries at this level. On two of those occasions, he was sent off at over 20-1. Solid stayer any way you look at the race. 4 - ROSALIE SWAN was worn down by sustained pressure through the far turn last time, but fared well in previous tries at the level. Second-time Lasix starter looks to rebound.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

1 - NEED LUCK N vaulted off cover to win going away at twos-on in his return outing two weeks ago. Tougher await today, but not by that much. The strength of his local wins encourage, and any semblance of pace pressure afore bodes well for him. 4 - MEADOWBRANCH RICKY also rises after beating third-level foes in 1:54 4/5, but did so from a cosy pocket ride and without much in terms of late turn of foot. Still, his form is among the best in this group. 8 - SWEET HEART AS reached N5L foes last out, and carries a slight class edge over some others in this group by that account. Wide draw is her biggest hurdle; Gingras does opt on.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - MARION GONDOLIER missed his Dec. 10 assignment due to transport issues, but looked to be a promising contender on the step down from a solid two-move outing against fourth-level types. Class and post relief lift him. 5 - DOT DOT DOT DASH improved late in her last three tries, all at this level or just tougher. Last out, she made over four lengths in the final quarter at 21-1. Now, she cuts back to third-level competition. 7 - OPTIMIST BLUE CHIP returns to his last winning level after a break and a respectable chasing effort with tougher. Wide draw partially negates class relief.

Race 12 - Non-Winners 1 Race

7 - ANDOVER SUPER BOWL chased well to protect second in her debut outing for Lebo two weeks ago. Iowa invader has a clear form edge in this group. 1 - HIT THE ROAD was empty on debut for Marsh three weeks ago, but stayed even or slightly better for minors in pervious tries at this level. Gains the pole and Kirby. 5 - LORD FAIRFAX picks up Steve Smith, who has driven many a young trotter to results that far outshine their off odds this season. Manageable foes await today.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

1 - ITSONLYMONEYHONEY won well in both his local starts - the half-mile track at Yonkers just didn't get along with him, it seemed. Similar foes await one last time this season; Buter's on from the pole. 2 - HALL IT OFF is in search of a fourth straight win after heading off a sustained threat on the far turn two weeks ago and trouncing his competition by a combined 12-1/2 lengths the two weeks before that. His toughest test to date awaits to his inside. 3 - CATWALK AS stayed on well for second from earned pockets in both her last and antepenultimate starts. Gingras' choice should be able to land close to the action without much trouble.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - GOLDEN SON added Lasix two weeks ago and held his ground to beat second-level company. Rises amid form uptick; expect him to be involved from the outset. 1 - PRESIDENTE ZETTE was more or less even in his last two at this level. Now, he's reunited with Simon and draws the pole - nearly identical circumstances to his win four back. 3 - BATTLE MAGE looks to benefit from post relief after being caught astern in Need Luck N's dominant score two weeks ago. Gains Gingras.