Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Thursday 11/19

Top Selections - Overall
Win %: 450 for 1,194 (37.7%)
ITM: 847 for 1,194 (70.9%)
Win Dividends: $1,988.10
$2 ROI: $1.67
Pick-4: 4/2,6/1,2,4,7,8/1,3,4,8 ($20)

Best Bet: Roger Rabbit (Race 7)
Spot Play: Contepartiro Deo (Race 10)

Race 1 - Claiming $15,000

2 - GUNSLINGER HILL rose to this level successfully last week after a stretch of success in lower claimers. Debuts for Mosher after winning his last two by a combined 6-1/2 lengths, and gains Nap. 3 - DAVID THE SAINT was a good third last week, only missing the runner-up spot by 2-1/4 lengths after rallying for a similar place at Pocono the start before. Stalking and staying ability makes him a solid value option. 6 - BUCKEYE N rises out of bottom-level conditioned company after hitting the board in two tries for his new connections. Best when near the action; improvement apparent. Worth including at a healthy offering.

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Race 2 - Claiming $10,000-$12,500

4 - INNER PEACE just missed from the pocket two weeks ago after simply having no chance from far behind Stop Resistin's 1:53 2/5 mile the start before. This spot suits the 23-time winner. 2 - BOSS DU FOSSE got up in time at odds-on in a bottom-level race last Thursday, but he hardly looked the part given how much Morgan had to get after him. Rises; demand value off such an effort but consider for exotics. 8 - BROADWAY PROMISE invades from M1 following a pair of runner-up finishes at the level. Nap opts to remain aboard after experiencing good results with him in New Jersey.

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Race 3 - Non-Winners 1 Race

4 - HE'S EXPLOSIVE was able to overcome a tough post and share in his last with a more forwardly-placed approach. Steadily better overall, showing signs now. Mild nod amongst challengers looking to spark a good autumn. Closer and closer each week. 1 -- SIMON GOT LUCKY has reliably finished third in every recorded career mile so far. Closed in attractively last week to get close to breaking maiden. Good win chance, an opportunity to set the terms right here from the prime draw. 8 -- KEEPTHETAB HANOVER is a sensible addition to any ticket and will just about certainly fire for the lead. Appears to have found the right level; good rating up top appears the right setting. Uncharacteristic break at start two miles prior.

Race 4 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

6 - LEVATOR graduates to N5L company after hitting the board in four straight. McCarthy remains aboard the versatile son of Muscle Hill who can lead, pounce, or stalk off a helmet. 7 - WILLING HANOVER does his best work from off the pace. Last week, after being mired in traffic, he made steady inside gains to save third in his first try at this level. Solid mid-price player in all exotics. 1 - BIG NUDGE faltered approaching the bell last week, but wired similar with Miller aboard three back. They're reunited; pole can aid.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - CHOCO CHARLIE is signaling good things ahead with steady improvements in his last two miles. Sufficient raw speed to take the contest and getting better weekly at cutting his margins down. Emphatic mid-price call. 1 -- PHANTOM RUSTY led most of his last mile at Pocono and now tries our oval. Will likely appreciate the pole position draw, does best leading early. Anything like his back class would comfortably take the event. 2 -- NICE STUFF is also trying our oval after a period at Pocono. Wide middle moves in last lend to excusing that last mile, but his transfer into a lower level could prove refreshing. Can spark exotics. 4 -- ODD BALL closed in to be a relatively nearby fifth in his return to racing. Tries this level again with a chance out of a nearer-half post. 8 -- PITTSBURGH HANOVER received an extra few days of rest and will benefit from any excess speed should it arise. Reliably passes the tired week after week; post does challenge.

Race 6 - Non-Winners $20,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - SCIROCCO ROB won his last local start at this level on Sept. 17, and did so via a sustained press through the far turn. Since, he wired top Dover trotters out of post 7. Tetrick opts to stay on following that recent score. 3 - ROCK OF CASHEL is warming back up, as is evident by a pair of pocket wins this month. This will be a tougher test, to be sure, but current form and a general lack of inside speed in this race make him an attractive choice at advertised odds. 6 - NO DRAMA PLEASE brushed and held at Dover two back before finishing a solid second to Scirocco Rob more recently. Can share with similar if perched close; projected shape of the race indicates he should be able to do just that with minimal trouble.

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Race 7 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - ROGER RABBIT is my top overall call today, and his expanding, gliding-away victory last week lived up to his heavy favoritism. Terrific form reversal indicates he's ready to graduate to more challenges. Key to the Pick-4. 2 -- WORTHY OF HONOR suffered a break and broken equipment two starts ago, marring what had otherwise been reliable production all through the autumn, and most of it happening here. Will be at or near the lead. Must control the tempo for best results, but more than fits and plays with this group. 5 -- BEAUTIFUL MRS A has done well for herself since arriving from Indiana and has two wins at moderate odds in the condition. Sensible addition; wins with her best. Faces several who can give her a solid challenge; likely to press the leaders.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - SIR JOHN F seeks a third straight win after ascending first-over and dueling down Ginger Tree Skyr last week. The step up is minimal, given five of his rivals raced at this level in at least one of their last two tries. 6 - LIONBACKER KIDD also rises, and he does so after maintaining the pocket in his last at Pocono and emerging belatedly out of traffic the start before. A little trip relief can help him achieve more. 7 - GINGER TREE SKYR moves up with the rival that took him down last week, and he looks to improve in his second start on Lasix. Wide draw presents a big obstacle.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

1 - MAX'S BEAST reached from an earned pocket last week and has now hit the board in his las seven. Form can carry him upward again; pole keeps him fresh. 8 - SWAN LEGACY rises from a hard-earned N5L win in his local debut for DiDomenico. Switch to three turns surely helped; there's potential for the stakes-tested gelding. 7 - WINNERESS chased mildly up the pegs when room availed last week. All told, he handled the double jump to this level well. Clearer sailing can further aid his consideration.

Race 10 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

8 -- CONTEPARTIRO DEO seeks a third consecutive win today and will be challenged from this outermost spot. Even so, the new leaving tactics have worked out to great result for her and we can look for her to perhaps try that again. She's in the best form of her career. Slim call against strong foes. 3 -- HARLEY K was victorious in Simpson action and now returns to a level where he had trouble at the outset two back. Let's excuse that and consider him a strong candidate to grow on that breakout performance in stakes action. The extra time off is a positive, too. 1 -- PRESIDENT has travelled regionally throughout the fall and had moderate successes at Pocono and also with us. Gets post relief and is one of the most tactically versatile of the group. Honorable mention to 2 -- TRICKY SISTER, who showed several fantastic late quarters in recent tries and joins us from Indiana.

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Race 11 - Non-Winners 1 Race

4 - VITANI AS almost lasted on the point last Wednesday but was ultimately ground down by sustained pressure. She has demonstrated improvement and versatility alike. 3 - CHURCH SOUT sustained wide bids to hit the board in his last two at double digits. Post relief gives him a shorter stretch of ground to have to make up. 6 - I'LLALWAYSBEBACK debuts for Ehrhart after failing to threaten in MA and NJ stakes events. Far easier await on arrival.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

8 -- WONDER BUNS has a chance at taking all the bread today, even from the wide post. She passed tired foes with a wide latter-stage move in her last. Shows effort in last pair that signal coming into better overall form. Quite lightly raced this year compared to all other campaigns. Potential price drifting. 3 -- HAMMER CREEK shows reasonable final fractions for the level and retains Ginsburg. Protracted trouble two prior was not characteristic. Much better in October; a return to that form can take the race. Useful in every ticket position. 1 -- SCARLETT RAIDER is one of the more versatile of the lineup and gets a good post draw today. Won't likely be the enormous odds of last week, but the price may be good. Shares readily.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

7 - BUSINESS CASUAL steps up from a maiden-breaking score at eights two weeks ago into a N3L field that feels pretty manageable. She's warming up and has clearly developing upside. 1 - ROBBIE PEV broke maiden last week, doing so by way of a sustained wide attack out of mid-division. Miller stays on over two others. 6 - LAVANTE, like the other two, seeks back-to-back wins after grinding his way to a maiden-breaking score two weeks ago. Second- or third-best here in terms of raw speed still needs better late pop.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - RIVER OTTER invaded last Thursday and was a good chasing second to MacMorris Hanover. Looking deeper, he had to duel through the far turn to protect second. Somewhat kinder await today. 6 - GRAPPLE HANOVER is one of three to drop in class in this field, and he does so after an even effort up the pegs to save fourth in fourth-level company. 8 - SWANS HONEY gains Gingras after earning minors at this level and one tougher in her last four. There are signs of chasing and closing ability; can share with her best.