Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Thursday 10/15

MEET STATS: 351 for 927 ($1,542.00) / $2 ROI: $1.66
ITM: 648 for 927
Pick-4: 5,6/1,3,6/2,5/1,5,7 ($18)
Best Bet: Hillexotic (Race 6)
Spot Play: Beach Crazy (Race 9)

Race 1 - Claiming $15,000

5 - GIVEN UP TERROR makes his second start for Crissman today, and figures well to improve from a respectable closing effort from astern against tougher. He drops back to the $15k level and gains Napolitano. 4 - MYIDEALSON N rose to this level last week and endured a wide, uncovered journey to only miss by two lengths. Post relief can aid. 7 - RATHER SWELL got rolling late at M1 in his last and saved third at 30-1 after landing last out of post 10. Victor stays with this strong value option.

Race 2 - Non-Winners 1 Race

8 - ALLSWELL HANOVER stayed on well for minors in N2L events at Pocono earlier this season, and now finds an easier group after chasing futilely in the shadows of Miss McKee in recent PA stakes events. Massive raw speed edge noted. 4 - EXCELSIOR DEO debuts after a trio of even chasing efforts in M1 qualifiers. Midpack draw suits well given a lack of inside speed; Nap opts aboard. 2 - MAGGIE MAYHEM also debuts, doing so after qualifying in 1:59 4/5 locally. That kind of speed is ample to share for a minor in this field.

Race 3 - 2YO Non-Winners 2 Races

8 - MIKIBYTHESEASIDE got jammed up in an overflow field at Delaware, and as such, could never threaten in the Standardbred on Jug day. He returns to the site of his lone win to date. Despite the wide draw, minor stakes success gives him enough of a class edge to carry. 2 - HOMEBODY pressed into the lead off the home turn last week, but was just upended after making his second move forward. Post relief lightens the load today; trending upward. 3 - GINGER TREE FINNY hit the board in three of his last five starts, all at this level. Last week, he dug in gamely to save third after Homebody eclipsed him and Lou Ed Zeppelin emerged to strike the front. Figures well in exotics with similar.

Race 4 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - ROSALIE SWAN has developed into a consistent force from off the pace, hitting the board in all three of her starts to date for Pat Lachance. Her hard-closing 1:55 1/5 mile at Pocono two weeks ago is enough to tower over her foes today. Ramping up stoutly. 3 - DRAIN THE SWAMP finally broke maiden two back, but was just even against winners last week. Gains Simon on his return to Philly. 1 - BASTION hit the board in her last five starts here, including a try against winners on Sept. 18, in which she saved second after being shuffled to worse than mid-division up the far side. Pole keeps her close; can share if close and clear.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - MAX'S BEAST almost held his ground in a fourth-level event a couple weeks ago after being overpowered but saving second at this level the start before. Raw speed edge is clear; wide draw is not trouble given leaving ability demonstrated three, four and seven back. 1 - NORTHERN EXPRESS worked steadily into second in the same race Max's Beast exits before toiling off the home turn. Give credit to the work he did in a :27 3/5 third quarter, and also note this step down. 3 - BOXING GLOVES rises after an odds-on, open-length win. He pressed and stalked for minors at this level last month; can figure in the Hi-5 again with similar. 8 - DI OGGI was one-paced late after earning second up the far side at this level last week, and 2 - MAJOR IMPACT looks to improve after following cover on the far turn and just missing second by three-quarters of a length behind a runaway Skyway Cobra.

Race 6 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

3 - HILLEXOTIC pressed up the far side in the PASS final, only to break upon cornering for home. The start before that, he rallied into second behind Futurity winner Amigo Volo. Far easier await today. 2 - SWIPE RIGHT rises after lifting to a 14-1 win over N3L company on debut for Hastings. Kinder draw should cut down on the amount of ground he'll have to cover. 4 - SVF BLUSHINGBRIDE gets another shot after a break cost her last week. Her dominant Liberty Bell win and proven versatility in lower conditions encourage.

Race 7 - Non-Winners 1 Race

6 - KLASSEN HANOVER strung together six top-three finishes from stalking and deep closing trips alike. He's easily the fastest and most consistent of the bunch. 5 - KEEPTHETAB HANOVER overcame a break to save third in his last by circling wide on the far turn and sustaining his progress. He enjoyed a good enough summer. Gradually improving. 8 - APOCALYPSE makes his first start with hopples today following a smooth Pocono qualifier last Wednesday. Second-time Bath starter demonstrated improvement in that morning outing; worth including in exotics at a price.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

3 - TIGHT LINES drops a level after saving ground from astern and gaining mildly up the open stretch in the featured event two weeks ago. While on a five-race losing streak, he has finished a narrow second from pacesetting, pocket and pressing trips in that span. Gregory's back on. 1 - PAT MATTERS bumps up mildly after brushing and being just collared at Pocono. She wired just tougher at Yonkers four back, note. Gains Lasix, the pole and Dunn. 6 - ROCK OF CASHEL, the elder statesman of this field at 10, is rounding back into improving form, it seems. Three back, he lifted out of traffic to win at Pocono, and just last week, he made all the pace before pocket rival Fashion Creditor upended him in the last 70 yards. Similar await today; credible value option.

Race 9 - 2YO Fillies, Non-Winners 2 Races

5 - BEACHBLANKETLINDY worked gradually into second before flattening on arrival last week, but her 1:54 1/5 mile from that race is ample to contend in this group. Expect sharper coming right back. 2 - BEACH CRAZY almost fought off pressure in her Chiodo debut last week, but may have been a bit short off six weeks' rest. Another one who figures to be stronger on the quicker return; post helps her land close with ease. 3 - EASYRUNNER HANOVER has yet to hit the board in seven starts to date, but has largely been racing in stakes and series company. Traffic trouble did not aid at all last week; can lift with clearer.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - FILLED DONUT won from an earned pocket at this level five back, and since did well to hit the board in two of four against tougher. Most recently, he lacked kick from a tracking trip behind Broadway Athena and Pat Matters -- both of whom contend consistently a level or two above this one. 1 - SKYWAY COBRA sprinted off powerfully in the last three-sixteenths of his third-level race a fortnight ago. Given the strength of that win and his favourable inside draw, he should manage fine here provided he remains on gait. That said, breaks three and five back don't concern me too much -- the former was on a half-mile track, and the latter came while he was gearing up to strike off the home turn. 5 - SPEE CLUB held sway against upper-winners three back, but since was overmatched -- but more or less even -- in upper-level events. Class relief can aid.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 1 Race

2 - LIZ'S CHAMP invades after garnering mixed results in Kindergarten prelims. While she broke late in her last, she lifted well for a 1:55 4/5 effort two back. That kind of raw speed towers over these. Nap's choice. 5 - DOMINIC DE VIE demonstrated pressing and closing ability in both his starts for Randy Taft thus far. Versatile and capable enough; solid mid-price option. 4 - MIZZY BRENDA K debuts for Engblom following a rather good Sept. 29 qualifier. Gait issues in early-season stakes trouble some, but she seems to be improving. Mind value.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

5 - MOSCONI HANOVER bottoms out after an early break cost him in second-level competition last week. While winless on the year, the 16-time winner has ample back class to draw from and has hit the board in nearly half his starts this season. 6 - MAGIC N SPICE almost lasted at this level last week after making much of the pace. Given a lack of other speed, there's a good chance for him to try to steal it again. 3 - GINGER TREE SKYR was used twice in his third-place effort on the drop to this level last week. Only a couple months ago, he chased significantly tougher for minors in sub-1:55 miles. Be mindful of value.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

1 - SWEET TEA can either press and sweep from out of mid-division with success -- after all, she's hit the board in five of her last six doing just that. Narrow miss at this level on arrival encourages; keeps Nap. 4 - WORTHY OF HONOR withstood Sweet Tea's pressure pretty well, all things considered, only just being outkicked by Swipe Right, who surged off third-over cover to reach. Likely pacesetter won well on the point at Pocono two back. 7 - DEVINE EQUINE tripped out to reach at this level when we last saw her, but that was three weeks ago. Current form encourages; wide draw may pose an obstacle but may also lift her price.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - GUARD YOUR HEARTS is one of two horses in this field to drop from third-level company. Last week, her cover broke on the final turn, and she accelerated after losing that cover to just miss Trixar by a half length in 13-1. Recent form uptick noted, too. 5 - SWANS HONEY did a fair bit of the heavy lifting up the far side after being left in the breeze with five-sixteenths to go in the same race, but she broke amid her ascent on the home turn. She teams back up with Miller, who hit the board with her in three of their last five together. 1 - KAREN HANOVER weakened late after stalking from midfield in her last, but was in the unenviable spot of having to chase a 1:53 2/5 mile, which is a good two seconds faster than most good second-level miles here. Minor option under more ordinary circumstances.