Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Thursday 10/1

Through Sept. 13 – 50 days - Top Selections - Overall
Win %: 272 for 702 (38.7%) ITM: 497 for 702 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $1,191.50 $2 ROI: $1.70
Best Bets: 24/32, $69.10 (+$5.10)
Spot Plays: 4/32, $21.80 (-$42.20)
Pick-4: 4,6/1,2,4,5,7/3,4,8/5 ($15)
Best Bet: Tight Lines (Race 10)
Spot Play: Klassen Hanover (Race 11)

Race 1 - Claiming $15,000

3 - MELANIE'S TEDY rises again after overcoming late traffic to beat $12.5k types last week. He proved he can parry pressure and close out of traffic. Clear sailing makes this rising 4-year-old even more of a threat. 7 - DON'TCALLMEFRANCIS pushed his way to victory two back, and simply couldn't find a way into the race last out. Wide draw is his biggest obstacle, but he does gain Tetrick. 8 - LETSCHASETHEDREAMN weakened badly after a tough first-over grind on Sept. 7, but he qualified fine last Tuesday. He was more than fine with $20k company and tougher in the summer, note. Mind value.

Race 2 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

5 - WILLING HANOVER has really found his best strides in recent weeks, and seeks a third straight win after lifting to the line in each of his last two. Developing stalker-closer in unrivalled in this group in terms of late turn of foot. 2 - SCIROCCO PATRICK made a push to the lead in his last, only to break stride on the far turn. Mild Stallion Series success is a plus; can bounce if able to stay flat. Mind value. 3 - MEANTTOBE DE VIE nearly lasted on the lead two back, and since was gathered in after exerting himself to clear. Post relief can serve to keep him fresh late in the mile.

Race 3 - 2YO Non-Winners 2 Races

2 - INTELLIGENT AM was overmatched in the Kentucky Sire Stakes, but won at this course and class in July before venturing west. He's developed nicely; every chance to get back in the win column in this return effort. 7 - CYRUS PEAK drew off boldly to break maiden two weeks ago after solid pressing and chasing efforts before that. Form and versatility are both present. 6 - WATER SPORTS TEEN was just upended last out, and managed to protect third despite a tough trip and road trouble in his debut for Harris. Capable minor player with similar.

Race 4 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

7 - POWERFUL YIELD bottoms out after slightly better than even efforts for minors against tougher groups of late. While winless on the year, he's consistently a late player. 2 - FASHION WINNER made most of the pace last week, but was reeled in off the home turn. He's hit the board in two of three since dropping to this level. 6 - VICKI ALL chased well to hit the board in two tries at the level, from pocket and overland trips alike. Reasonably value player in exotics yet again.

Race 5 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

6 - HANNAH redeemed herself well with a runner-up finish in the Buckette last week after a break cost her all chance at this course and class. When she stays flat, she's easily the strongest in this group. 2 - LOYAL FOX HANOVER sustained a bid for second on arrival last week before levelling off mildly. That was a respectable debut effort for Coyne; watch for further improvement in this second start on Lasix. 8 - LUCY MAE HANOVER tried upper-winners company two back, and just missed Spee Club by a half length from an earned pocket. She comes back to three turns and figures to be a solid price option in the Hi-5. 4 - ARCLIGHT HANOVER lifted well off cover for second at this level last week, and 7 - BIG NUDGE adds Lasix after toiling in his last couple, but shows ample raw speed to contend for at least a minor.

Race 6 - 2YO Fillies Non-Winners 2 Races

5 - ITALIA SEELSTER improved steadily from well off the pace in her last two, most recently taking a good third in the Liberty Bell. Stout finisher shows some of the fastest three-turn miles on the page, and Tetrick is back on. 4 - IDEAL IN MIRACLES won at this level from the pocket two back, and since chased better than evenly in the same Liberty Bell split Italia Seelster exits. Solid enough chaser if close and clear. 7 - CLASSICIST returns east after minor success in Red Mile stakes. Her 1:52 1/5 mile in pursuit four back is the fastest on the page, but over two turns. Local outings in July encourage enough; she proved able to close a lot of ground from off the pace.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - YUGE drops another level after recovering from a break respectably enough in his last. He pressed his way to victory over just tougher at Yonkers seven back. 4 - TECH TITAN overcame a wide draw enough for an even fourth on debut for Dinges at Pocono last week. Tetrick takes over; kinder midpack draw should land him closer. 2 - PITTSBURGH HANOVER powered clear late last week, and now rises after starting to find his form. Forgive two back on account of a strenuous middle half.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

4 - MAX drops back to a winning level after turning in respectable efforts with tougher both here and at Pocono. Two back, he gave futile chase to Arabella's Cadet's track record, and he was just nabbed by Mississippi Storm after setting the pace in his last. The drop refreshes. 5 - BLUEBIRD JESSE gets another crack at this level after fighting gamely after being headed on the far turn. He can deliver or absorb pressure alike, and he boasts closing ability as well. 7 - DELTASUN A makes his U.S. debut after chasing the likes of JK Cruze and Gimpanzee in M1 qualifiers. Here's a detailed look at his last two starts in Australia, both over the 1,000m track at Terang:
• June 23, over 2,180m from a standing start: Landed fifth-over from a 40m handicap, moved three-wide with 900m to go, advanced to gain cover, ducked into the pocket on the far turn, and was urged up the pegs to give chase.
• May 24, over 2,180m from a standing start: Landed last of 10 from a 40m handicap before angling fifth-over, surged three-wide with 600m to go, was carried four-wide with 350m, lifted off the home turn, and was hard urged to reach the lead in the final 50m.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - SKYWAY COBRA cleared, yielded, and was a one-paced third on the step down to this level last week. Proven staying ability with tougher rivals encourages a great deal. 3 - TYMAL TULLO invades from Tioga after rallying well out of traffic to just miss in his last. Gains Nap on arrival. 8 - SWANS HONEY improved belatedly to hit the board in both of her starts at this level since dropping from fourth-level competition. Solid stayer will need to float forward or land in a live flow for best.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $20,000 Last 5 Starts, 9 Races or $90,000

5 - TIGHT LINES pressed well through the far turn last week, only to be eclipsed off cover by Mississippi Storm. He did the bulk of the work in the back half of the race, to be sure; worth another crack. 8 - RICH AND MISERABLE won well at Pocono last out and has ample back class to draw from, but will have to overcome the wide draw on the step up. Capable with best; demand value. 2 - CLIVE BIGSBY is another horse rising from a fifth-level win, having vaulted clear from a cosy pocket. He's drawn inside again, and should be able to make a beeline for the pegs given his lone inside rival tends to not show early speed.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 1 Race

5 - ARMANI HANOVER looks to rebound from a break in the Keystone Classic, but minor placings in Stallion events prove that he's more than up for the task. Gains Tetrick. 7 - KLASSEN HANOVER is my prime value play on the afternoon owing to his steady string of minor placings from sustained rallies at the level. Wide draw should help boost price once again. 2 - COMEONOVER HANOVER chased for minors all throughout his Stallion Series campaign, and should have an easier time getting involved early from this inside draw. Easier await; improvement noted.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

2 - RAP SHEET improved belatedly in his last, and now gains both an inside draw and the easiest class here. Can continue to build. 3 - INNER PEACE tired late after clearing and yielding in a $12.5k event. Raw speed when flat is ample for this group. 1 - MAGIC N SPICE passed tired foes to save fourth on the drop to this level last week. Inside draw yields an even easier task.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

8 - MARGOT staved off pressure through the far turn on arrival two weeks ago, but was reeled in off the home turn. Gains Tetrick; they teamed up for a good second in stakes company four back. 1 - CEFFYL DWR reached from the pocket in his last, and now rises to face older. Expect him to land close again from the pole. 2 - LEVATOR chased mildly to protect third last out. Forgive his Sept. 4 outing due to early exertion for the pocket from the outside and an extremely fast pace.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

8 - MAGICAL WINNER K powered clear willingly in his debuts for Harris last week. Wide draw and class hike noted, but he really impressed on arrival. Lots to like, including the price. 6 - AMADOR was fourth or better in his last five tries at this level, including a good chasing third behind two usual fifth-level contenders last week. 2 - PRESIDENTE ZETTE passed a few horses late at big odds last week, but now regains Tetrick and draws inside. Can share with similar.