Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Sunday 9/6

Win %: 185 for 463 (40.0%) ITM: 328 for 463 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $751.70$ ROI: $1.62
Best Bets: 24/32, $69.10 (+$5.10)
Spot Plays: 4/32, $21.80 (-$42.20)
Best Bet: Party Girl Hill (Race 12)
Spot Play: Tiger Thompson N (Race 7)
Pick-4: 2,4,6,7,8/2,3/1,6/1 ($10)

Race 1 - Claiming Handicap $20,000-$25,000

1 - TIME OUT I'M TIRED battled back once headed to win at this level a fortnight ago on debut for Estrada. Save for a failed three-wide push three back, he's turned in stout efforts consistently since returning. 6 - NIHILATED TRUTH chased for no-match second in his last two $15k tries. He rises amid good form; this isn't the toughest of upper-level tests. 8 - STARK HANOVER is one of two in for $25k here. Early exertion took its toll last out at Harrington; he chased well to save third locally after landing in the pocket.

Race 2 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - NUMBERED ACCOUNTS is Tetrick's choice of three in the field after his runner-up finish to the classy Western Fame last week. He has proven he can stalk or close from astern with equal efficacy. 7 - SEAFARER sprinted off boldly through the final three furlongs last week to defeat third-level company at twos-on. He'll need to employ aggressive tactics or follow live flow for similar on the rise. 5 - BEACH ART retains Foster after earning minors in upper-level races at Harrington of late. Four back, he emerged late to beat tougher locally.

Race 3 - PASS Consolation

5 - SHOULDABEENATD weakened late in pursuit of Party Girl Hill on Aug. 9, but chased evenly for minors in previous stakes outings. Company lines tell much of the tale. 1 - ANNABELLE HANOVER won a Stallion Series race at twenties-on two back, and since made a credible bid into JK First Lady at Pocono. Not lacking for staying power. 8 - ASHTINI never got involved from astern last out, but has been a steady presence in Stallion Series races all summer. Minor option with live flow - she did pass tired foes late last out, after all.

Race 4 - PASS Consolation

5 - SOLSBURY HILL gave way under sustained pressure in her Aug. 25 Sire Stakes assignment, but did collar Sister Sledge from an earned pocket locally on July 15. Forgive her Hambo Oaks line owing to early exertion from outside into a hot early pace. 3 - SHERRY LYNS LADY almost converted a 1:52 3/5 mile in her local PASS leg, but sustained pressure on the far turn did her in, too. Draw can keep her prominent without the early exertion. 2 - MISS MCKEE won two Stallion Series events and her All-Stars split, and was a credible minor player in her two PASS tries. Nap won with her twice already this season; they're back together. Raw speed needs to improve a bit, but she can chase OK for a share.

Race 5 - PASS Consolation

2 - MANTICORE took on open company at Northfield a few weeks ago, and he chased from astern to only miss Odds On Osiris by 1-3/4 lengths. Since then, he kept a first-over bid alive for third at The Meadows and was just collared after exerting to clear at Pocono. While winless on the season yet, he's proven he can withstand a lot of pressure. 8 - ENOUGH SUN was the beneficiary of pace pressure applied to Manticore last week, sneaking through late to just reach at 13-1. The 4-time winner will have to overcome a wide draw, but amid improving form. 7 - CAPTAIN GROOVY cleared, yielded, and was one-paced in his ALl-Star event. He's been no worse than fourth this season; value player in the Hi-5 along with 4 - LOU'S A PANSY, who can rebound with this more favourable draw, and 6 - SEEYOU AT THEBEACH, who dropped to Stallion Series company for a needed form refresh.

Race 6 - PASS Consolation

7 - BIG OIL broke in the Hambletonian, but was a credible fourth to Ramona Hill in his elimination. Since then, he's righted the ship largely, pushing clear and holding sway in a Meadows PASS leading to this consolation. 6 - CHESTNUT HILL just missed Big Oil after riding the pocket and angling to chase on the far turn. He's hit the board in three of four; form encourages. 1a - KING ALPHONSO won locally in 1:52 3/5 four back, and has since chased to be fourth or better in three straight stakes outings. Can share with similar.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - TIGER THOMPSON N pressed and just missed at this level in his first start with Lasix. He's been mighty sharp since returning to action, and can set, press or stalk the pace alike. Credible spot play. 6 - TROJAN BANNER N returned last week and just gave way after brushing and facing pressure on the far turn. Consistent :27-and-change closing speed is a plus, as are minor placings against far tougher. 4 - BETTOR MEMORIES just missed tougher from an earned pocket two back and chased from deeper back three and four back. Class edge noted; mind value.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $14,300 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

8 - SOMEWHERE IN L A is reunited with Tetrick after a traffic-troubled effort at Pocono last out. Three and four starts back, he chased for minors in local winners-over events. This group is two rungs below that one. 7 - STATEMENT MADE A is starting to heat back up, as is evident by his last three lines. After a one-paced pocket ride two back, he dug deep to almost repel pressure last Sunday. Loses Tetrick, but form and versatility can carry. Solid value choice. 3 - BILLY BADGER N hasn't missed a cheque in his last six races, and he's demonstrated good closing ability from in the breeze and off the pace alike in recent outings. Slight relief noted; figures well to finish among thee strongest.

Race 9 - PASS Final

2 - ALLYWAG HANOVER was even but ultimately no threat in the NA Cup, yet enjoyed success on this circuit and in Meadowlands stakes earlier in the summer. Narrow misses against open stakes company from pressing and stalking trips encourage mightily. Slim call in a wide open race. 6 - NO LOU ZING is the "now" horse in the division, having risen rapidly from the conditioned ranks to being able to hold his own with some of the toughest in the continent. Pressing ability is a plus; his pocket win at The Meadows last out impressed. 7 - SANDBETWEENMYTOES sprinted off to win his last two by a combined 7-1/4 lengths, and he boasts ample raw speed. He sustained wide bids to win two and six back; similar tactics can help him overcome the wide draw.

Race 10 - PASS Final

3 - AMIGO VOLO was upended locally on Aug. 16, but came roaring back with a stout front-end win at The Meadows last week. He's the only one in the field to have raced in the Hambletonian final, and he chased to save fourth after clearing from post 10 and being shuffled up the far side. As strong as they come. 2 - HILLEXOTIC was a good second in pursuit of Amigo Volo last week, and before that reeled off three straight wins in sharp fashion. After not racing as a 2-year-old, it hasn't taken him long at all to find his best strides. 7 - EL IDEAL won twice in three PASS tries this year after a dynamite rookie season. He's able to blast from the outside, and figures to be involved from the outset as such here, too. Value option in exotics should the above pair take expected action.

Race 11 - PASS Final

6 - SISTER SLEDGE broke in the Hambletonian, but when it comes to competing against fillies, she's only a neck shy of an undefeated record this season. That defeat came right here on July 15, but she's gotten stronger since then. The one to beat. 1 - NEXT LEVEL STUFF pressed, yielded, and gave chase to Sister Sledge for second at Pocono last week, and she even held her own against older company earlier in the summer. Pole keeps the 9-time winner close with ease. 7 - FIFTY CENT PIECE only missed the board once this year, and in recent outings has pressed and stalked her way into the money. Strong value option in deeper exotics given her ability to turn up the heat on the outside.

Race 12 - PASS Final

1 - PARTY GIRL HILL rolled to victory in the Fan Hanover at Woodbine last week, and remains undefeated with now two triumphs over unrestricted company to her credit. Beat her for everything. 6 - JK FIRST LADY just held for an All-Stars win last week after pressing and edging clear decisively here the week before. Presser-stalker is warming up for Takter in a big way; rookie success from off the pace encourages too. 5 - ROCKNIFICENT was cross-entered in the PASS and the Fan Hanover, and remained local for a 1:50 2/5 win. Since, she missed JK First Lady from the pocket, but not by much. Stayer has hit the board in all eight tries this year; can do the same with current form.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

7 - WARRAWEE VELOCE pressed to the lead last week before being outkicked for home. He's hit the board in five of seven, including in tougher Stallion Series company. 1 - P-DRIVE HANOVER improved belatedly last out in a respectable rebound effort. Three, four and five back, he hit the board at this level. Morgan opts on. 6 - ALL HANDS ON DECK was no match for Nichols Beach in his last two tries. He escapes that foe today and shouldn't have to work as hard. Can boost exotic value.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - FULLBACK drops in class after a torturous trip in the slop. After being parked early, he was used hard to clear up the far side before almost immediately giving way. Post and class relief alike await him. 2 - KEY ADVISOR rallied well from off the pace to hit the board in his last three. He gets a kinder draw and assignment on arrival from Yonkers. 8 - JJ FLYNN, like the two above, drops in class after posting respectable showings in his last couple. Tim's choice will have to overcome a wide draw, though. Mind value.