Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Sunday 9/27

Through Sept. 13 – 50 days Top Selections - Overall
Win %: 272 for 702 (38.7%) ITM: 497 for 702 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $1,191.50 $2 ROI: $1.70
Pick-4: 1,2,3,5,7/4,6/6,7/2,8 ($20)
Best Bet: Manticore (Race 6)
Spot Play: Vettel N (Race 8)

Race 1 - Claiming $15,000

7 - ONLYTHETUFFSURVIVE won three of his last four at this level, from pocket and cover trips alike. Tim opts on the capable and versatile $15k contender. 2 - DRINKA BEER, like Onlythetuffsurvive, seeks back-to-back scores at this level, but he's a touch more one-dimensional. His win last week came from an earned lead, and his narrow miss three back came from an earned pocket. That being said, Nap shouldn't have much trouble keeping him close. 8 - IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N was second in two tries at this level since being claimed - from the point and the pocket alike. Form's not in doubt, but the wide draw is a definite challenge.

Race 2 - Claiming $20,000-$25,000

2 - RECORD MACHINE was shuffled badly last out, but won stoutly at this level off a bold middle move three back. Forgive his Yonkers line owing to sustained uncovered gains in the middle half. 3 - ROCKABILLY CHARM seeks a third straight win, but steps up from $15k company on debut for Ruiz. Best if just off the front flight. 4 - IC A FREE SPIRIT lifted off cover to win at this level three back, but his closing bids have been a bit flatter since. Still capable of chasing for a minor.

Race 3 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - LUCAN HANOVER pressed and stalked more than respectably in his last two outings a level above this one. He's working back into form; further relief can lift the millionaire to his 52nd career win. 1 - CAPTAIN MULZAC is Tim's choice of three after a game effort at M1 led to a narrow defeat. He shouldn't have to work as hard for early position today from the pole; staying power with tougher fields encourages. 2 - MAGRITTE pressed a strong enough third quarter before flattening at large odds in his last, but now gets a second drop in class this month. He beat slightly tougher six back; mind value.

Race 4 - Claiming $20,000-$25,000

4 - REVELRY was engulfed in upper stretch last out, but before that pressed sternly into a strong enough pace to just miss. Ability to sustain progress over long stretches of ground encourages. 7 - MORE DRAGON rose to this level last week and just missed Barbados from an earned pocket. Nap opts on the likely strongest horse in the race, but value will likely be scarce. 3 - ROYAL HEART made ground for minors in all three starts at this level for Doherty to date. Good mid-price option for exotics with similar.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - AFLAME HANOVER held narrowly at this level two back and since gave stout chase to Wes Delight from an earned pocket at M1. The stakes-tested 4-year-old returns to a proven course and level, and Miller opts on over two others. 1 - ROCK THE TOWN likewise won at this level two weeks ago, and since pressed hard and stayed on at 9-1 against tougher at Pocono. Pole keeps him in the thick of it without issue. 8 - SOMEWHERE IN L A failed to convert in two tries since dropping to this level, but retains Napolitano after hitting the board on those occasions. Include, but mind value when considering placement. Honourable mentions go to 2 - NUMBERED ACCOUNT, who rises off a strong post 8 win, and 4 - ROCKIN RON, who drops a level after an even finish and boasts plenty of back class.

Race 6 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

5 - MANTICORE kicked home powerfully in the PA Sire Stakes consolation, and has demonstrated rising form amid recent stakes - restricted and open alike - assignments. Far and away the strongest in this group. 3 - LYONS SKIPPER rode Manticore's cover for a no-match second in the consolation, and lifted similarly in pursuit of the sharp Nicholas Beach more recently. Lifting just the same. 2 - TRU LOU fared more than OK in Stallion Series company all season, and chased behind Jug elim winner Sandbetweenmytoes for second in a Keystone Classic split. Should be close and clear.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

7 - FASHION BYTHEBEACH circled horses late in a second-level race last week, and now finds himself at the lowest rung of the class ladder. Late pace in recent tries is ample for this manageable group. 5 - OUTKAST BLUE CHIP never got involved from astern one and three back, but showed good late pace two levels above this one in the start between. Nap's choice. 1 - HYPOTHETICAL gains class and post relief alike on debut for Crissman, and Tetrick opts aboard. Pole keeps him close with ease; raw speed in recent Meadows lines is ample.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $20,000 Last 4 Starts, 9 Races or $90,000

4 - RODEO ROCK was strong at M1 in his last two, chasing belatedly via a :25 4/5 closing sectional two back and only being narrowly upended by Allywag Hanover last week. Invades amid definite strength. 6 - JACK'S LEGEND N seeks back-to-back wins after parrying sustained pressure at Harrington in a similar event. Before that, he pressed and chased to hit the board in four straight against similar or even tougher. Strong of late just the same. 8 - VETTEL N rises again after another narrow score, this time just reaching at 20-1 out of traffic from an earned pocket. The wide draw surely troubles, but he proved able to overcome similar last Sunday. Strong value player for minors.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $15,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

The morning-line favourite in this race is tasked with a double jump, and while he proved capable locally both five and seven back, he may be a bit vulnerable. As such, there are a few credible value options here, including 7 - PEACE OUT POSSE, who made stout late inroads at this level and tougher in his last two races after a two-move 1:49 4/5 win against just easier. He's been consistently strong all round. 6 - ITSROCKANDROLL A rises mildly on arrival from Pocono after sustaining a first-over attack to win last week. Before that, he lifted well off cover to make strong inroads at this level and parried pressure in an upper-winners event. 2 - SEMI TOUGH can prove a player too with a bit of relief from his arduous first-over grind on the drop to this level last week.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

8 - JK MUSICMAN didn't lose by much a level above this one last week, and in fact was a convincing winner at this level the week before. Nap's choice over three others. Plenty to like. 2 - TACT TATE N also steps down from a third-place finish against fourth-level foes. While he was just a fifth of a second slower than JK Musicman, he was also just one-paced from a cosier ride. Mind value. 1 - DADDYOFEMALL roses off a pressing win to chase for third behind Numbered Account at this level last Sunday. Good late gains noted; minor option with similar.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - MISTER OHANZEE A didn't miss tougher by that much two and three back, and he nearly converted at odds-on on the drop last week. Tim's choice of four; worth another shot. 3 - ROCKSTARPATRIOT just missed Mister Ohanzee A by a half length on the same drop last week - and that was after a month away from action. He figures to be sharper coming right back. 4 - CASINO BAGS ANSO tries three turns after wide draws limited his earning power at Harrington. On the whole, this is essentially a lateral move.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

6 - OFFICIAL DELIGHT stayed on OK for third in his last two, both at this level and one tougher. Gains Nap, who chooses over three others. 4 - DEALMAKER pressed hard up the far side before levelling off last out. He's been fourth or better in three of five at the level. 3 - MISTER INDIANA nearly reached two back, and now comes back to the bottom class after a failed bid last week. Can rebound.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

7 - SOMBODYITREASURE and Todd McCarthy drilled a 1:49 4/5 mile at M1 on the drop from stakes company a couple weeks ago. This doesn't represent much of a step up from that race; mild stakes success early in the summer can more than carry. 4 - ROLLNTHEJOE battled stoutly on the far turn on arrival last week, but was out fought to the line at odds-on. Multiple Excelsior winner can rebound; mind value. 3 - SOUTHWIND DREDGE can either prove a catalyst for pace pressure or a late factor in this event. He's shown improved efforts in his last couple tries since adding Lasix; value option for deeper exotics.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - BAD BOY BRAD A tries three turns after wide draws troubled him in his last two. It's worth noting that he made pretty significant ground from astern on both occasions. 4 - SETTLEMOIR demonstrated pressing and stalking ability in bottom-level company since arriving from the NYC metro area. Just last week, he left from post 8 for the pocket, was shuffled, and emerged out of traffic to save second at nines. 5 - PENZANCE HANOVER almost lasted on the point last week, but loses Nap and is forced to take on tougher. Minor option still noting past chasing efforts at this level.