Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Sunday 9/20

Top Selections - Overall:
Win %: 272 for 702 (38.7%) ITM: 497 for 702 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $1,191.50 $2 ROI: $1.70
Pick-4: 1,8/2,3,6/3,4,5/2,4 ($18)
Best Bet: Mike's Z Tam (Race 10)
Spot Play: Record Machine (Race 2)

Race 1 - Claiming $15,000

The day starts with an extremely wide-open $15k claiming event in which the top contenders are tightly clustered in terms of ability. Expect the shape of the race to ultimately be the determining factor. 5 - SEELEY MAN hit the board in all three of his starts since rising to this level, and he does his best work when in control of the terms. Last week, he fought gamely under pressure on the far turn and still held third after being ground down. 4 - ROCKABILLY CHARM won two of his last three $15k tries, from on the lead and off the pace alike. That kind of versatility can suit him well in a race this evenly matched. 2 - PREPPY ART has shown ability to absorb pressure and lift from just off the front flight since returning to action in recent weeks. Cosy draw puts this definitely value player close with ease.

Race 2 - Claiming $20,000-$25,000

8 - BARBADOS pushed clear from the eight-hole and held sway to narrowly win in his debut for Temming last week. A nearly similar situation exits today; Tetrick opts to stay on over two others. 6 - RECORD MACHINE made a strong account for himself on the far turn at Yonkers in a similar race last week, but gave in at the top of the stretch. His local track record is far better. Credible despite morning line offering. 5 - LINDYTHEFOURTEENTH could stand to pick up some pieces late given current trajectory. Since leaving Ohio, he's hit the board in four of five, and he's pressed and stalked his way into the ticket at double digits in both local tries at this tag.

Race 3 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

4 - PENZANCE HANOVER was a minor player in second- and third-level events this summer and generally finished evenly in those tougher groups. Bottoms out; Nap chooses on over two others. 7 - STENDAHL HANOVER improved belatedly to save fourth on the drop at Pocono last time. Top-three finishes with tougher in July and August noted; he's by far the strongest finisher in this group. 8 - SCRUB HANOVER improved mildly for third in his second start for Smith last week. He drops again, but will have to overcome a wide draw. Still, a credible value option in exotics.

Race 4 - Claiming $15,000

4 - DA MAGICIAN debuts for Huckabone after a failed three-wide push last time, but he ground his way to victory at this level the start before. This group shapes up as more manageable. 7 - DEERFIELD BEACH hit the board in five of six races since returning to action, all at this level. He can either press or rally off cover. 2 - DRINKA BEER is Nap's choice in the field on this crossover to claiming company. Post relief can aid; raw speed has been consistent with what this class produces.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

Three horses lift into this race out of third-level wins, and the two who did significant work in their respective outings bear inclusion in my top three Hi-5 selections. 5 - JK MUSICMAN pushed clear after a sharp :26 1/5 quarter and extended his lead through the final turn to win decisively last Friday. 8 - K RYAN BLUE CHIP moves the other direction on the class ladder, but has proven himself a capable mid-price option given his ability to press and stalk. He beat just easier at The Meadows two back and chased evenly against tougher at Pocono since. 4 - MAJOR DECEPTION put it together last week - and had to endure a wide journey for the whole mile in order to do so! Stalking and closing ability noted. Also consider 2 - MONTEFALCO N, who regains Tetrick and draws inside, and 7 - SHADOW CAT, who has been fourth or better in four straight, including two against tougher at Harrington.

Race 6 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

5 - IDEAL PERCEPTION chased well for minors in early-season NY Sire Stakes prelims, but could not find his way into striking range in his last three. Far easier competition awaits on arrival. 2 - ACTON HANOVER rises after a N4L win from an earned pocket at Pocono two weeks ago. Simon opts to remain on. 1 - SAILBOAT HANOVER gets a pass for his last owing to broken equipment, yet he still only missed by three lengths in the Stallion Series final. Pole keeps the versatile colt close; Dubé's got to keep him in the clear.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - IMSTAYNALIVE adds Lasix and drops in class after being reeled in on the point last week. Success against tougher in recent weeks - from both on and off the pace - encourages most of all. 8 - NUMBERED ACCOUNT exits a nearly identical race as Imstaynalive and looks just as good if not a hair better on paper. Tim opts to stay on; wide draw looms. 5 - DADDYOFEMALL moves up the class ladder off a hard-earned win over second-level company. He loses Tetrick, but he's shown pressing and staying ability against comparable foes this summer. Forgive two back on account of severe traffic.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - SOMEWHERE IN L A gets another crack at this level after a failed pocket pull at odds-on last week. He had enough in the tank to chase for minors in tougher groups early in the summer; back class is substantial. 2 - SADIQ HANOVER is a prime bet-back candidate, having lifted well from astern for third in a tougher - and much faster - race last out. Solid stayer can lift more strongly on this slight drop. 3 - TROJAN BANNER N returns from Harrington following a narrow defeat at odds-on. He shows ability to control fast paces and also make some ground off a helmet. If a cover trip is to be, Tim will need to work him closer up in the flow for best results.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 4 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

4 - DONTTELLMEAGAIN didn't lack for late pace in two recent upper-level paces at M1 after being just outmatched in stakes and open assignments. This step down can be just the antidote for a winless-so-far season. 3 - ALLUNEEDISFAITH N drops back to a competitive level after being shuffled out of striking range on approach to the far turn last week. He's got staying power as long as he has room; Nap opts to stay on. 5 - SAYING GRACE N invades from Hoosier, where he rose to the upper ranks in recent weeks. Late pace in his Open try last Friday is a big plus, eternal homestretch notwithstanding.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

I absolutely love 2 - MIKE'S Z TAM in this spot, given proven form paired with class and post relief. While he's yet to win this year, he's got everything it takes to pounce on this step down - raw speed, staying power, and a little bit of a class edge. Pat's just got to keep him in the clear so he can remain able to strike. 4 - LUCAN HANOVER pressed well on the drop to this level last week, only to just miss. The 51-time winner enjoyed success with tougher earlier this season. 5 - JACK'S SHADOW N was hampered by wide draws in his last two at M1, but beat tougher locally four back from an earned pocket. Relief all round helps all things but price.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

5 - ALL HANDS ON DECK never worked into striking range in his last N3L outing, but showed some closing ability from deep in the field the start before. This time, he finds far and away the easiest competition of his career. 7 - MR DISOMMA dropped to this level last week and emerged from heavy traffic to save second. Before that, he pressed and faded in a $7.5k claiming event at Pocono. A kind trip makes him a big value player in exotics. 2 - CLASSIC dropped to this level on arrival last week, but gets a pass for late regression on account of his effort to clear from post 8. Relief should aid a great deal.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - MISTER OHANZEE A drops after sustaining mild inroads from astern in his last and absorbing pressure the start before. Tetrick's choice of three. 1 - PADUKA N worked hard for the pocket at M1 last weekend and chased well to hold position. Class hike is offset by post relief. 6 - CASH IS KING stayed even for minor cheques in two local tries against tougher after mixed results at Harrington. Further relief can aid some; mind value noting good staying efforts in fourth-level competition earlier this season.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

1 - ROLLNTHEJOE held sway for an Excelsior win at Saratoga in his last, and he won twice at that level as a rookie. Pole can help minimise need for early exertion. 5 - LYONS FRIENDS was reeled in last week, but absorbed sustained pressure through the far turn. He's been fourth or better in all but one of his starts to date, mind. 4 - WELL DONE SON improved well from astern to just miss by two lengths at M1 last out. Improvement over his first start against winners noted; can share with similar.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

5 - SPEEDLING pressed hard three-wide into the far turn before tiring late on the drop to this level. Far easier await this time around; Nap opts to remain on. 3 - BLAYDE HANOVER can benefit from extreme post relief after he was stung early in the same race Speedling exits. 6 - CLOUDBREAK gains Tetrick this time around after failed bids in his last few. Watch for improvement.