Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Sunday 8/16

Pick-4: 1,3,4,6/6,7/6,7/1,6 ($16)
Best Bet: Amigo Volo (Race 6)
Spot Play: Soho Wallstreet A (Race 7)

Race 1 - Claiming Handicap $20,000-$25,000

1 - SEVENS HOPE A dropped to this level two weeks ago and finished third, but had to push extra hard to clear in a :26 1/5 first quarter. Pole can lessen the early load; Nap opts on over three others. 7 - ROLL N CATCH beat similar at eights last out after rolling off cover. While the versatile 15-time winner figures to be sharper coming back, another wide draw can prove tough. 2 - ACTING OUT didn't lack for pace in traffic at Yonkers in his return outing. Inside draw keeps him close on the lateral move; clear sailing is a must.

Race 2 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - SEEING EYE SINGLE floated forward from post 8 and pressed stoutly at this level two back to just miss. He was no threat against tougher last week after an overland journey, but he's the strongest of the three in this field who drop in class. 2 - KERFORD ROAD A rose from a two-move win to split rivals and close ground in the final sixteenth. Clearer sailing this time is bound to help. 7 - TWIN B SPEED DIAL invades after posting solid wins at Tioga and Ocean. He's ramping up and Nap opts on, but be wary of value given the jump up on arrival.

Race 3 - PA Stallion Series

6 - TOWN VICTOR was a strong Stallion Series winner at Pocono two back - so strong that he edged clear in the stretch after vaulting clear from post 8. Brennan can offer a similarly aggressive tactic with the 7-time winner. 7 - BARGAIN BOB invaded from Hoosier for the July 26 Stallion Series event, and he did well to maintain second in a tougher division from the pocket. He figures to be one of only a few to contest the early pace. 2 - KEYSTONE CHAOS only last week broke maiden, but has hit the board in 11 of 14 tries today. In his Stallion Series debut, he was simply too far off a slow first half to pose any threat.

Race 4 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

The three strongest horses in the race - at least the way I see it - are stepping up from wins or extremely arduous efforts. 3 - JK WILDFIRE rises after winning decisively on arrival, but before that he charged out of traffic to just miss similar at M1. 4 - MACHIAVELLI parried pressure and kicked away at Yonkers on Monday before this step up. When he was last at this class on July 10, he nearly lasted before Mr Censi - who has since earned minors in fourth- and fifth-level company - just nabbed him. 7 - ABERDEEN HANOVER may be 20-1 on the morning line, but look at the first-over journey he toughed out to just miss on Monday! He's stayed on OK for minors against tougher at M1, and now he splits the difference. Great roughie option.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $20,000 Last 5 Starts, 9 Races, or $90,000

1 - US CAPTAIN kept up well with Angers Bayama at M1 on Hambletonian Day, and that runner-up finish at 26-1 was made all the more impressive by the fact he cleared from post 8 into a :26 1/5 quarter before yielding. Pole sharpens him up on this lateral move. 7 - ALLUNEEDISFAITH N rises mildly off an earned Pocono win at odds-on. Three back, he failed to fire from post 10, and four back, he tired after a second move to push the pace. Nap seems to have found the key to this one. 6 - PROPER ONE was a one-paced third to Shnitzledosomethin a fortnight ago, and he pressed well for second behind Turbo Hill in tougher company the start before. He figures to stay on again, and can even close if he's got live cover.

Race 6 - PA Sire Stakes

In today's first Pennsylvania Sire Stakes event, 2 - AMIGO VOLO drops in after saving fourth behind Ramona Hill in the Hambletonian. The only member of this field to race in the Hambletonian final was a resounding PASS winner at Pocono on July 26. The one to beat, to be sure. 1a - EL IDEAL won his Pocono Sire Stakes after landing in the pocket and brushing to control with a circuit to go. Give credit to his Reynolds effort out of post 8, too. Must stay flat for best. 1 - KING ALPHONSO dropped to N3L company last week and simply dominated. Tougher stakes foes await, but that outing can give him the confidence to be a minor player here. Pole keeps him close.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races, or $70,000

3 - ROCKAPELO keeps moving up - and so do four of his rivals. After two sharp wins, he chased off the home turn to just miss at Pocono in his last. This feels more like a lateral move given the opposition, and Brennan won with him two back here. 1 - IN SPADES is one of two horses to drop in class, and he does so after lifting wide to pass horses. Post relief helps; so does Nap. Mind value. 6 - SOHO WALLSTREET A is the other class dropper, and he deserves a lot of credit for his Aug. 7 Yonkers line. After battling to clear from post 8, he endured pressure on the final turn before ultimately giving way. A kinder scenario is an almost certainty here.

Race 8 - PA Stallion Series

7 - SAXON improved belatedly for fourth in his Muscle Hill split, which was his first start with hopples. If that equipment change continues to aid past gait issues, this one's class edge can carry through. 6 - ARCLIGHT HANOVER worked clear and held sway in his Stallion split on July 26, and he followed it up with a respectable chasing effort behind the tougher Hell Patrol. 1 - STEEL SCHOONER has shown up late for minors in his last two stakes assignments. Pole keeps the capable stalker-closer well within range.

Race 9 - Winners Over $25,000 Lifetime Handicap

7 - CAVIART LUCA pounced from the pocket to win a Yonkers Open at 9-1 last week. Forward placement enabled him to make his already strong closing kick count for a lot more. Refreshed on arrival. 6 - HIGHALATOR overcame an arduous first-over journey to win the local winners-over four weeks ago at nearly sixes. He's had time to recover since then, it should seem. Expect him to be prominent from the outset. 5 - SOUTHWIND OZZI missed his last due to sickness, but was one of my prime selections on the Aug. 2 card. In his last outing, he pressed strongly in the breeze to force a torturous middle pace in the William Haughton. He won't have to contend with Dancin Lou or Century Farroh here; mind value.

Race 10 - PA Stallion Series

1 - STICKLER HANOVER won well in Stallion Series company at Pocono before burning sharp fair miles twice already this month. Extremely capable. 6 - SEBASTIEN DUHARAS should have an easier time of things today following his game runner-up effort last week. He won't be saddled with nearly as tough a starting spot as he was in his previous Stallion outing. 4 - CAFE AMERICANO showed improved closing ability in his last after early exertion stung him two and three back. Easier await compared to prior stakes outings.

Race 11 - PA Sire Stakes

5 - HILLEXOTIC pressed to a narrow 1:53 victory in the Muscle Hill after minor success in Pocono stakes to start the season. This presser-stalker is finding better strides, it seems. 4 - CHESTNUT HILL tired after pushing a :54 4/5 half in his Muscle Hill division but still held third behind the tough Beads. He's another one who can take a lot of air; raw speed edge noted. 3 - BEYOND KRONOS added Lasix for his no-match runner-up effort to Beads, and he figures to improve a bit more yet. He's chased OK in comparable fields at M1 thus far; must be close for best results.

Race 12 - PA Stallion Series

5 - OVERSERVED drops in from Sire Stakes company following a better than even effort to save fourth at big odds. Before that, he lunged late to just miss at 59-1 in an All-Stars outing. Raw speed edge is clear as day. 1 - SOLAR won his Pocono Stallion Series event after fending off Steel Schooner's late bid. He's hit the board in 6 of 7 this year; inside draw keeps him close. 7 - S CLASS was overmatched by the tough Beads in the Muscle Hill; he simply couldn't keep up after chasing a fast first six furlongs. Prior outings are more indicative of his ability, and this group is more to his liking.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

7 - STOP ACTION lifted three-wide for fourth in a Stallion Series race on Tuesday, and now he comes back to a course and class where he just missed at massive odds. Form indicates we can expect a better effort than recent odds otherwise would. 5 - BUCKWELL pressed and flattened on the rise to this level, but still held third. Midpack draw can save him some early exertion. 3 - MILLENNIUM PARK engaged late to reach at 14-1 in his last. Slight bump up awaits this solid finisher; Lasix has seemed to help him improve.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - TACT TATE N figures to be sharper second out, but he was pretty good in pursuit of JK Wildfire last week. Similar await coming right back. 3 - MISTER INDIANA drops from no-menace $20k outings, but he was even or better in his last two. Relief can aid. 8 - TRUMP THAT made two moves to just miss bottom-level company out of post 9 last week. A third straight outside draw troubles him, but he's proven strong enough to be able to amply overcome it before the first turn.