Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Sunday 10/4

Through Sept. 13 – 50 days - Top Selections - Overall
Win %: 272 for 702 (38.7%) ITM: 497 for 702 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $1,191.50 $2 ROI: $1.70
Pick-4: 1,6,7/1,3,5/4,6/1,4 ($18)
Best Bet: Our Max Phactor N (Race 10)
Spot Play: Fullback (Race 14)

Race 1 - Claiming $20,000-$25,000

6 - RAZOR'S EDGE invades from Pocono and gains Napolitano after failing to fire from astern in his last two. Four back, he charged well out of traffic to beat $25k foes. Expect him to lift on arrival. 5 - IC A FREE SPIRIT was fourth or better in five of six tries at this level, including a pair of wins. Solid enough stalker and stayer. 3 - RECORD MACHINE chased to save second last week after mid-race traffic trouble hampered him two back. Best when close and clear; can set, press or track the pace alike.

Race 2 - Claiming $15,000

3 - SEVENS HOPE A is one of two horses in this field to seek back-to-back wins at this level. After parrying sustained pressure through a :27 3/5 third split last week, he sprinted off while driven at odds-on. Nap opts to remain aboard. 5 - AN THE THUNDEROLLS reached from close tracking trips in his last two tries, including at 9-1 on the rise to this level. Improving 6-year-old consistently shows good pace once free late. 7 - TJ BLAST was hampered by wide draws in his last few tries against tougher company. While pinned to the outside yet again, the drop to $15k company should yield an easier task. Value option in exotics.

Race 3 - Non-Winners $11,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - KEY ADVISOR simply couldn't get involved with tougher from the eight-hole at Yonkers last weekend, but he didn't lack for late pace in the least! Switches to three turns and returns to a winning level. 3 - TACT TATE N kept up well from an earned pocket at this level two back. More recently, he was pushed to a more ambitious pace and only lost by a neck. There's a lot to like about this veteran. 7 - BETTOR MEMORIES sustained late gains to just miss the stealthy Tiger Thomson N at this level on Sept. 6. Layoff is the big variable.

Race 4 - Claiming $20,000-$25,000

5 - LINDYTHEFOURTEENTH fought gamely under pressure to only just lose on debut for Sheridan last week. Improving form is starting to catch up with the class hike four back. 4 - REVELRY just missed More Dragon in the same race Lindythefourteenth exits, but misses my top call on account of having done less work through the middle stages of the race. He did press well to just miss similar three back, note. 3 - DOJEA SOLO should have an easier time getting involved from this inside draw on arrival from Pocono. He can stalk or press the pace alike and enjoy pretty good results at this level. Logical minor option.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,050 Last 5 Starts

1 - DADDYOFEMALL closed stoutly down the outside to only miss by a length at this level last week. Given the likelihood of a pressured pace this time around, he figures as an even more credible mid-price player in today's Hi-5. 2 - MAJOR OFFENSE chased well for second in a tougher race two back before flattening last out. Moves laterally on arrival; gains Nap. 7 - MAC'S BIG BOY rises off a 1:50.1 win, but only just reached from a cosy pocket. Late chasing pace in stakes assignments earlier this summer encourages; mind value. 3 - BATTLE STRONG and 4 - MCERLEAN are honourable mentions, the former on account of pressing efforts with tougher and the latter on account of his gritty second-level win last Friday.

Race 6 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 4 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

7 - MANTICORE rises after a pair of stout wins over this course. The stakes-tested 3-year-old accelerated to the fore as soon as he was pointed to the open stretch last week. Lots to like on the step up. 3 - CRIMSON AND CHROME moves the other direction on the class ladder after giving futile chase to top-level fields from astern. Three back, he proved a gritty winner at this level. Expect him to be involved from the get-go for best results. 2 - DA DELIGHTFUL just missed from an earned pocket at M1 in a similar race last weekend. When we last saw him here, he won comfortably at this level after making all the pace. Capable for sure under the right circumstances.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

6 - BAD BOY BRAD A overcame road trouble and a wide trip to save third on the drop to second-level company last week. Now, he gets further relief off a more than respectable outing. 1 - BUCKWELL drops from N3L company after failed chasing efforts at large odds. Raw speed is consistent with others' ability. 7 - DEALMAKER was fourth or better in three of his last four and four of six since dropping to this level. Minor option in this manageable group if able to land close - leaving ability demonstrated in August indicates he can.

Race 8 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

3 - NICHOLAS BEACH will square off against some of his toughest competition to date, but there's no disputing he's the 'now' horse. The 4-year-old is undefeated this year, and he made virtually all the pace in all four of his wins for Jenn Bongiorno. Clearly the fastest in this group. 5 - PATRIOT NATION, on the other hand, has the benefit of stakes competition this summer and a narrow defeat in a tougher N8L field at Yonkers in his last. Formidable competition for Nicholas Beach in terms of making the pace. 1 - GINGRAS BEACH makes his second start on Lasix after simply not getting involved in the Keystone Classic. Minor stakes contender did win at this level on Aug. 2, albeit from a cosy enough pocket ride.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $20,000 Last 5 Starts, 9 Races or $90,000

Everybody in this field proved themselves capably a level below this in recent history, save for one. As such, it makes for a tough race to handicap despite the short field. 4 - PRINCE OF TIDES earns my respect on account of his two-move effort to win at Pocono last weekend. After pushing up the pegs for early position, he sustained a first-over grind out of third to reach. Nap is right back aboard on arrival. 6 - PYRO gets another crack at this field after being engulfed in upper stretch last week. To be fair, he was hard used to clear and then nudged to a :26 4/5 third quarter before giving way, and he only lost by 1-1/4 lengths. 3 - ITSROCKANDROLL A rises after a string of solid pressing and deep closing bids just below this level. Worth considering should the pace not be the place to be on this day.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $11,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - OUR MAX PHACTOR N absolutely gets a pass for his Sept. 28 line at Yonkers owing to the eight-hole, broken equipment and road trouble. Just as recently as late August, he was a decided factor in top-level company there, keeping up with Indiana invader Shnitzledosomethin - who has won two of three career starts locally against top-level company. So much to like about this 26-time winner on his return down I-95. 4 - BILLY BADGER pressed and stayed on well a level above this one last week, and he ground his way to victory three back. Easier await this likely catalyst for pace pressure. 7 - ROBBIE BURNS N could prove a viable roughie option if he can work free late or land in a live flow. He just missed similar last out after a two-move win the week before. Improving form noted.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

7 - TITO ROCKS just missed N4L foes from a cosy pocket at Pocono in his last after proving a minor player in stakes company through the summer. Class edge noted. 4 - TERRITORY rises after narrowly winning a N2L event at Pocono, but he cedes a pretty hefty raw speed edge. Gains Brennan on arrival. 1 - P-DRIVE HANOVER likewise won a N2L event in his last, but got to draft along in the catbird seat before narrowly lifting. Improving form a plus, as is the pole.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - CAPTAIN MULZAC gets another crack at this level after pushing a :54 4/5 half and tiring up the far side last out. Kinder trips yielded better finishes two and three back, note. This McDermott trainee has plenty of back class to draw from. 7 - MISTER OHANZEE A was softened up at odds-on by sustained pressure last week, but held enough for second the start before. Generally easier foes await today. 1 - PENZANCE HANOVER moved back up to this level last Sunday, and stayed even in pursuit of Settlemoir after being pinned in up the back. Minor option from the pole with clearer sailing.

Race 13 - Non-Winners $7,050 Last 5 Starts

8 - BABES DIG ME meets my main bet-back criteria, and could offer healthy enough value on arrival from the Hilltop. In both of his most recent starts, he landed in the pocket before giving stout chase ... and both were against tougher fields than this one. Wide draw doesn't trouble me so much, especially given a general lack of pace in this group and his ability to land into and maintain the pocket in his last. 2 - ROCK LIGHTS made steady progress into a :27 third quarter at Pocono last out and stuck around to maintain second. Similar await on arrival. 1 - KASEY JOHN A failed to fire in his last three, but gains the pole on this drop to a clearly proven level. Expect him to be closer to the action this time.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

4 - CINNABAR DRAGON drops on arrival from Yonkers, where he chased from astern to take third on debut for Harris. Nap's choice. 6 - FULLBACK cleared, yielded, and lifted to just miss at 11-1 in a second-level race last out. Bottoms out after chasing far tougher for minors as recently as August. 7 - WORLD ON EDGE only missed by a neck two back, and since charged belatedly from astern to save fifth. Easier await on arrival; can share again.