Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Sunday 10/18

Witherite - PHL (through Oct. 11 – 66 days)
Top Selections - Overall
Win %: 351 for 927 - ITM: 648 for 927
Win Dividends: $1,542.00 - $2 ROI: $1.66

Pick-4: 1,7/2,5,8/5,7/5,7,8
Best Bet: Nicholas Beach (Race 7)
Spot Play: Gentlemanjim II IE (Race 12)

Race 1 - Claiming $20,000-$25,000

7 - REVELRY is Tetrick's choice over Barbados - and the two shape up to be the most likely winners in the group. Revelry lifted clear of similar from an earned pocket two weeks ago, and he's hit the board at this level in five of six from a variety of trips. Form and versatility both encourage. 8 - BARBADOS was claimed back by Chris Temming out of a seventh-place effort last week, but has every chance to return to previous form. He won in both starts for Temming at this level last month - and both after working clear from the eight-hole. 4 - WISE IMAGE attempted to bottom out his foes last week, but got nabbed on the line by Loud Splash after six furlongs in 1:21 3/5 did him in. Kinder pace is a must.

Race 2 - Claiming $15,000

7 - SEVENS HOPE A returns to Garcia after a futile chasing bid on the far turn last week. Nap opts to stay aboard the 31-time winner who can either withstand pressure or lift from the pocket. 4 - AN THE THUNDEROLLS drops back to this tag after top-level claimers proved too tough last week. Recent wins came from nearly ideal pocket trips, mind, but there's a chance he can land there from the middle of the gate. 6 - WALLEYWALLEYINFREE is a credible minor option to boost exotic value, as his last five starts at this level support. He stalked closely and lifted a bit to hit the ticket at double digits in his last two, and he raced quite well in the breeze the start before after floating forward, all things considered.

Race 3 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - BIG BAD BILL sustained pressure respectably in his last three outings, and showed that he can also close from farther astern in previous lines. Moves laterally on arrival from a solid string of minors; gains McCarthy. 8 - BLOOD BROTHER was even two levels above this one, and since made steady headway into a :27 2/5 final quarter to claim second a level above this one. Further relief can aid greatly despite the unfavourable draw. 4 - RAZOR'S EDGE drops markedly from $20k claimers into this group, and his most recent efforts encourage - he proved he can stay OK off cover for minors. Mind value given this significant drop.

Race 4 - Claiming $15,000

5 - STICK WITH CRAMER debuts for Mosher amid a strong form cycle, including a win and a narrow defeat at this level at Pocono. He can brush or grind with equal effectiveness; plenty to like. 4 - IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N has raced aggressively at the $15k level in five starts for Hunter Oakes, and has managed four second-place finishes in that span. Still just a bit short in terms of stretch kick, but the 35-time winner's holding his own OK enough. Mind value. 2 - IDEAL ROCKY was a solid open-length winner over Da Magician at 10-1 last week, but he had mixed results in previous tries. He could be rounding into form, or it could have been a one-off. That all said, these circumstances look favourable enough.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $10,400 Last 5 Starts

3 - TIGER THOMPSON N wired a like field out of post 7 five starts back, and aims to regain that form via class and post relief. He was a bit better than even for minors against tougher both one and three back - despite hard trips to capitalise on. 7 - MAC'S BIG BOY was overpowered on the far turn in his quest for a third straight win, but he still posted a 1:50 4/5 mile after giving way. Leaving ability not a concern. 6 - FINE DIAMOND raced a lot better than 22-1 would otherwise indicate last week after getting caught in traffic. Clear sailing can make him more of a threat; Tetrick's on, as well.

Race 6 - Claiming $20,000-$25,000

5 - RECORD MACHINE is only one of three horses in the race to have hit the board in his last three starts, and of those three, he's the only to have done so at this level each time. Expected pacesetter reunites with Tetrick. 2 - DRINKABEER closed well out of traffic to save second in each of his last two tries. Solid mid-price threat with clearer sailing. 1 - MORE DRAGON seeks a third straight win after pressing at this level and powering clear of $15k types since. Claimed back by Cito amid a very strong form cycle. Versatility can aid.

Race 7 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

7 - NICHOLAS BEACH just missed a very tough Patriot Nation two weeks ago - but that rival was since a game second in a Liberty Bell split. Likely pacesetter in this field has been simply dominant thus far for Bongiorno and has never missed the exacta. 1 - IDEAL ARTILLERY will look to take it to Nicholas Beach and extend a four-race win streak. He powered clear of N4L types at Yonkers two back and should be able to land near the action with ease again from the pole. Todd McCarthy's choice. 5 - ACTON HANOVER rose to this level a month ago and was a one-paced second from the pocket, but hasn't raced since. The top pair will be mighty tough to crack, but this one can chase well for a minor share if fit.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $20,000 Last 5 Starts, 9 Races or $90,000

2 - ITSROCKANDROLL A made his presence felt off cover and missed narrowly in each of his last three — including last week's winners-over that saw Jack's Legend N and None Bettor A duel through the final furlong. There's enough pace in this race to pave the way for this stalker-closer, provided he brings a similar effort. 8 - CASUAL COOL pressed and held sway at Pocono in his last, and now rises half a level. Simon opts on this likely catalyst for pace pressure despite the outside draw. 5 - JACK'S SHADOW N won three of his last four, including a narrow defeat at this level two back. He bounced back with a gritty front-end win over fifth-level types last Sunday, and now he's reunited with Tetrick. Form encourages, but he'll have to withstand a lot more pressure this time.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - CAPTAIN MULZAC, like much of this field, steps up in class. He does so after nearly lasting at odds-on in his last. Narrow defeats three and four back encourage as well. Gains Tetrick. 5 - MITCH MAGUIRE N should be able to land closer to the action from this kinder midpack draw after failing to get involved at M1 in his last. Reunited with Nap; they won together at 14-1 two back. 4 - LAREDO TORPEDO N was a narrow runner-up twice in his last three at the level below, earning that spot from on the point and out of an earned pocket. On the improve.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $15,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - NUMBERED ACCOUNT won well at 15-2 last week by way of a sharp first-over ascent and strong kick clear of his foes. Reunited with Tetrick amid renewed strength. 8 - PEACE OUT POSSE hit the board in six straight tries, including four straight against comparable company and just tougher. Versatility is his big selling point. 5 - BILLY BADGER N is the likely catalyst for pace pressure in this event, and not only that, he consistently sticks around to the end of the mile.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

2 - COMMANDER HILL returned from Rosecroft last week with a refreshed performance — one that saw him push into the lead before being eclipsed by Diamond Head. Inside draw should keep him up on the pace easily. 5 - PACK UP AND GO keeps Nap after a powerful maiden-breaking effort last Friday. He steps up to face winners following that 1:53 1/5 outing; mind value on the rise. 6 - FULL SEND was terrific on the fair circuit this summer, hitting the board in 15 of 21 tries overall. Versatility noted; raw speed is ample.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $10,400 Last 5 Starts

8 - GENTLEMANJIM II IE may be 12-1 on the morning line, but there's too much going his way to overlook him. First, he drops below his most recent winning level. Second, he gains Dexter Dunn. Third, his last line is worthy of a complete pass - he simply couldn't get involved from the far outside at Yonkers. The run to the first turn is a lot longer here, enabling him to work forward in time for the corner. 5 - ROBBIE BURNS N was overpowered by Numbered Account last week, but had enough left to save third at this level. He seems most comfortable when able to stalk the pace directly, and this midpack draw suits his style to a T. 7 - ROCKIN RON never got involved in his last at M1, but still paced a 1:50 2/5 mile in pursuit of similar. Staying power was lots better in local outings; can rebound.

Race 13 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

1 - ZINNY MACH N is one of two in the field who hit the board in their last. He keeps Nap and starts from the pole. 4 - MR D'S DRAGON steps down mildly after an even effort from astern at Pocono on Tuesday. A closer journey makes him a big player in this manageable group. 7 - WAVES OF FIRE A lifted steadily into a no-match second at 48-1 last week after getting stung early the week before. Results have been hit-or-miss, but he has the potential of lifting exotic value in a big way.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - TACT TATE N may have failed to fire off cover last week, but he held his own far better two, three and four back - including a pair of good stalking efforts for minors one level above this one. Reunited with Morgan. 3 - WEONA SIZZLER A bumps up half a level following a front-end score at Pocono. He fares pretty well on the point and in fact wired tougher twice in August. He and Nap have won the last three times they've been together. 1 - BABY KITTY drops and draws inside after traffic and rearward trips hindered his earning potential a level above this one. Clear sailing or live cover makes him a minor player.