Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Sunday 10/11

Pick-4: 2,4,5,6,8/4,6/5,7/3,7 ($20)
Best Bet: Sevens Hope A (Race 1)
Spot Play: Official Delight (Race 8)

Race 1 - Claiming $15,000

2 - SEVENS HOPE A seeks a third straight win at the $15k level after prevailing from the point and the pocket in his last two. Debuts for Pavia; keeps Napolitano. 3 - DA MAGICIAN also looks to repeat at the $15k level, but has delivered his best results from pressing and stalking roles. Capable, but ... will there be enough pace pressure for his liking? 5 - MIKE'S POWERHOUSE could figure as a credible value player in exotics given even finishes since rising to this tag on Sept. 17. Post relief will be a big help, to be sure.

Race 2 - Claiming $20,000-$25,000

8 - BELL I NO won routinely at the $30k level at Pocono through the summer, but tailed off a bit in his last two tries. Now, the 30-time winner drops below his most recent winning level. 7 - RECORD MACHINE wired similar last out, and has demonstrated gradual gains in terms of form since returning from Yonkers. Wide draw is his main obstacle; clear sailing is a must. 1 - DRINKA BEER overcame traffic well last week to split foes inside and save second in pursuit of Revelry. He handled the jump from $15k company well, I'd say. Simon stays aboard.

Race 3 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

1 - DIAMOND HEAD pressed hard out of post 10 at M1 last week before fading on the drop to a similar level. Before that, he was largely outmatched in stakes company. The good news: He pressed to victory at this level locally on Aug. 14. This spot more than suits. 4 - COMMANDER HILL invades from Rosecroft after a pair of wins from varying tactics. He didn't fare as well locally late in the summer, but he figures to be stronger in this return outing. Expect more aggressive early tactics. 2 - MEET THE CREEPER demonstrated improved staying power in his last two at the level after early exertion did him in three back. Solid minor option with the likelihood of hefty odds.

Race 4 - Claiming $15,000

4 - MORE DRAGON won three of his last four, including two at this level or higher. Extremely capable presser-stalker boasts form and class edges alike and retains Nap. 5 - MELANIE'S TEDY rose to this level last week and set most of the pace, only to be eclipsed by the tough of late Da Magician. Coming into his own. 8 - IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N hit the exacta in three of his last four, with the lone miss occurring from a two-move effort out of post 8 two back. Wide draw is his biggest obstacle; he's best when close to the pace but without the exertion needed to content with a :54 1/5 half.

Race 5 - Claiming $20,000-$25,000

8 - BARBADOS gets the nod from me on his return to Philadelphia. Both three and four starts back, he overcame the eight-hole to win at this level. Since then, he chased respectably for minors with tougher at Pocono. Very capable. 7 - JOHNNY Q parried pressure to win for $25k at Pocono last Saturday, and now seeks a fourth straight win. He's risen steadily up the class ladder, and he doesn't lack for versatility, either. 5 - LOUD SPLASH kept up well from the pocket on arrival last week after traffic trouble hindered his progress twice before. 6 - RAZOR'S EDGE and 3 - BLUEJEANSNREDWINGS figure well for the Hi-5 too, both having lifted mildly off cover for minor shares at this level in recent tries.

Race 6 - Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

2 - ROCKAPELO may have only managed an eighth-place finish at Pocono in his last, but he only missed by 2-3/4 lengths after racing from astern. If he's on the point or able to race off a helmet, he's a much bigger threat. Post and class relief aid; Simon opts aboard. 5 - JACK'S SHADOW N won at this level from the pocket two back, and since nearly lasted on an earned lead with top-level company. Horses for courses, perhaps? 4 - BILLY BADGER rises after pressing steadily into near misses in his last two, but he's certainly capable with a repeat of his Sept. 6 effort - a first-over grind into a going-away win at this level.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

6 - CAPTAIN NASH tired after trying to chase a blistering pace in a second-level event last week. A third straight step down awaits the 7-time winner; this spot is far more manageable. Slim call. 8 - OUTKAST BLUE CHIP pressed and flattened in his last, but pressed and chased to protect second at this level the start before. 5 - SCRUB HANOVER was fourth or better in four straight, all from well off the pace. Can close again for a share in this more manageable spot.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - OFFICIAL DELIGHT gets another crack at this level after mid-race traffic trouble stunted his late progress. Still, once free, he lifted to save third at tens on the rise to this spot. Berry stays on; strong mid-price option. 4 - PREMIER ROCKSTAR ground out a first-over win in bottom-level company last week. Steps back up; Nap opts to remain aboard. 7 - MISTER OHANZEE A nearly lasted three back and tired after pushing hard to clear and facing immediate pressure the week after. Early involvement can help his cause most.

Race 9 - Winners Over $25,000 Handicap

7 - NONE BETTOR A had to work hard to clear at Yonkers in his last, only to be overpowered in mid-stretch. The 29-time winner debuts for Shane Tritton, and Nap opts aboard. 5 - JACK'S LEGEND N seeks a third straight win after wiring his Harrington foes two back vaulting clear of local top-level company since. Strong and versatile, to say the least. 2 - MAC'S JACKPOT should be able to land in a cosy tracking spot with ease from this inside draw. He's shown gradual improvement since getting back into action last month.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

3 - TUXEDO BAY bottomed out on arrival from Pocono and sustained overland gains for third. Ability to overcome stalled cover encourages. 7 - D M JOHNWICK flattened after being parked two back, but came back to lift off cover for third. Gains Brennan. 4 - FASHION BYTHE BEACH hit the super in his last three after exiting high-level claimers, and he did so from three widely differing tactics. Capable and versatile, but mind value.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - MCERLEAN cleared, yielded, was shuffled and stayed even on the step back up to this level. His win two back encourages, especially given the heavy pressure he faced in a :27 3/5 third quarter en route to the winner's enclosure. 1 - MAJOR POCKET A returns from Minnesota after nearly a three-month spell. While there, he demonstrated pacesetting and mild closing ability, and as recently as March, he lifted off cover to just miss tougher. Pole keeps him close. 7 - NUCLEAR DRAGON moves laterally on arrival from Freehold, where he chased evenly after being shuffled mildly. Provided he can avoid the breeze, he figures well for at least a piece.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - ROBBIE BURNS N landed close to the pace from outside draws in both starts since rising to this level, and then he made late gains at double digits on both occasions. Last week, he missed the much tougher Our Max Phactor N by only a length. 3 - TACT TATE N is a solid mid-price player in this group, and he boasts the form to prove it. He's hit the board in five of six, with his only miss coming when he was caught far astern behind Aflame Hanover. 7 - MAC'S BIG BOY rises again after working hard to clear and holding on over third-level types last week. He seems to have turned a corner since exiting a tough group of stakes colts.

Race 13 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - MCCLINCHIE N invades from M1 and drops after a taxing first six furlongs did him in. Raw speed suits; this spot is far more manageable. 1 - NORTHWEST YANKEE also steps down after enjoying minor success in mid-level races. Pole can keep him close with ease. 6 - GLENGARRY KNIGHT N stayed even in traffic at Pocono in his last, and fared OK in similar races at the Ocean this summer. Gains Nap on arrival.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - FABRICE HANOVER improved well out of traffic in his last, and has earned cheques against far tougher in his last seven starts. Significant drop will surely aid, but clear sailing is a big must. 2 - BETTOR MEMORIES drops down after an extended wide bid in his last and a narrow miss out of mid-division two back. Class and post relief both aid; mind value. 3 - SADIQ HANOVER improved from worse than midfield to reach the super in two of his last three. He pressed for an 11-1 upset at this level six back; recent uptick in closing speed noted.