Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Monday 9/7

Win %: 185 for 463 (40.0%) ITM: 328 for 463 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $751.70$ ROI: $1.62
Best Bets: 24/32, $69.10 (+$5.10)
Spot Plays: 4/32, $21.80 (-$42.20)
Best Bet: Broadway Bruiser (Race 4)
Spot Play: Mayfield Duke (Race 3)
Pick-4: 1,7,8/3,4,5,6/2,6/1,3 ($24)

Race 1 - Claiming Handicap $20,000-$25,000

4 - FERNADO debuts for Taneyhill on arrival from Tioga. The 20-time winner reeled off five of his last seven against upper-level claimers at my former home track, and negotiated a variety of trips in doing so. Plenty to like; Nap opts on over four others. 8 - BETTER B ROLLING invades from Pocono, where he hit the exacta in all five starts since returning to action. He can set or stalk the pace alike; wide draw is his biggest obstacle. 7 - LETSCHASETHEDREEAMN debuts for Lare after giving way sharply in his last two, but he chased far better in early August outings. The ability's there.

Race 2 - Claiming $15,000

5 - IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N debuts for Hunter Oakes after mixed results at the $15k level at Pocono since returning. He can leave, stalk or press; similar await on arrival. 2 - DREAM OUT LOUD N lifted out of an earned pocket to prevail on the drop to this level last week. Before that, he circled from astern and gained gradually into fourth with tougher. Draw is favourable; mind value. 1 - WE THINK ALIKE landed close from post 8 last week, but was mired in traffic up the far side. Prior efforts show clearer and closer sailing can yield better outcomes. Can share from the pole.

Race 3 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - MAYFIELD DUKE steps down from high-tag claiming company, where he had mild success in recent weeks. Last week, he closed belatedly for third at 31-1 in a $20k event. This race represents a hefty step down. He can leave or rally late alike. 6 - IDEAL CHILL fits my bet-back criteria - dropping in class from a strong first-over or closing effort off stalled cover. He's hit the board in three of four, and now he gains Brennan. 1 - WAGON MASTER made two moves out of post 7 to push a :27 2/5 third quarter at Pocono last out. The pole can help on this third straight drop in class.

Race 4 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - BROADWAY BRUISER protected a no-match second behind the very tough Stormy Kromer at Freehold last weekend, and before that didn't miss second by that much while Goes Down Smooth similarly drew off. Far easier await this 8-time winner today. 6 - LUCKYCOMPETER invades from Cleveland after a good run in conditioned claiming events there. This feels like a lateral move on paper; switch to three turns can improve raw speed. What impresses me the most is the combination of his leaving ability and that to absorb large amounts of pressure and hold his ground. 1 - BATTLE MAGE drops and draws inside after a pair of no-menace outings at Yonkers. Should be closer with ease from the pole.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - HATIKVAH finds a kinder spot on arrival from the NYC metro area, and honestly, he doesn't seem to need this much class relief. He's been fourth or better with tougher in four straight, and hasn't lacked for late trot on any occasion. 6 - AMADOR rises after a hard-earned third-level win, and Nap opts to remain on over two others. 8 - MEADOWBRANCH RICKY proved ability to rally from astern in his last two Pocono tries, most recently circling up boldly from last to just miss similar. 3 - SKYWAY COBRA and 5 - GUARD YOUR HEARTS warrant mention too, the former chasing well for minors at this level and tougher in recent outings and the latter rising off a going-away third-level win.

Race 6 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

3 - ATOMIC BLAST N adds Lasix after clearing, yielding and chasing to hold second at this level two weeks ago. In his U.S. debut, he brushed and drew off decisively. Fine here. 4 - SURFER BEACH pressed the pace before flattening at 19-1 in his last try, but he's gradually ramping up after being tested in some stout N3L fields. A kinder trip can aid further improvement. 1 - FANTASTIC VOYAGE tore away from his rivals at Ocean last week in a simply jaw-dropping performance. That 1:53 3/5 mile will translate easily to a couple seconds faster, and the pole gives him a fairly easy task ahead.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - GINGER TREE MARTY drops a level after passing tired foes in his last at Pocono and chasing mildly for third off cover before that. Class and post relief can both aid the 21-time winner. 7 - PALOMAR improved steadily in the late stages of his last, and his 1:48 4/5 Meadowlands mile four back is far and away the fastest on the page. Wide draw may yield a challenging assignment; mind value. 8 - TUXEDO BAY pressed and faded in his last, but still turned in a 1:51 3/5 mile at Pocono. Further class relief may help him; speed is ample for a minor.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - PASSA-GRILLE BEACH used a first-over grind to defeat similar at Yonkers two starts back. Give him a pass for his return outing — he did pass tired foes out of post 8 to save the last cheque against tougher. Midpack draw at a winning level, though? Great chance to rebound. 3 - FEELING CAM LUCKY also won in his last try at this level, overcoming early road trouble to do so on July 26. Forgive his last two on account of wide draws at Pocono — which are mighty tough to overcome. 4 - ARTMAGIC shares the post-and-class-relief angle on arrival from Yonkers. He did chase to earn minor cheques against tougher foes twice in four starts after graduating from this level. Don't expect him to have to chase from so far off the pace today.

Race 9 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

2 - BANG BANG BOINGA lifted into an upper-stretch lead last out, only to be collared late over sloppy going. He's hit the board in five straight, though, and all from a variety of strategies. Versatility and form encourage. 6 - MEANTTOBE DE VIE reached from the pocket for a 13-1 Stallion Series upset two back, but since broke over the off going after supplying Bang Bang Boinga with cover up the far side. They meet again; Nap opts to stay on. 4 - DAYTONA DREAMIN hit the board in three of his Stallion Series efforts this year, including a 1:55 2/5 mile at Pocono in July. In terms of raw speed and staying power, he fits well with this group. Mind value owing to winless record on the year.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - LIFETIME ROYALTY broke at Yonkers in his last, but can rebound on the switch to three turns. Before that, he stayed on well for third two levels above this one. A big threat with a clean dispatch. 1 - MAJOR IMPACT made a serious bid for the lead off the home turn last time out, but lacked off the turn. He drops to his most recent winning level - on July 3, he sustained an uncovered bid for over half the mile to prevail. 5 - MR HOUDINI hit the board twice in his last four, and nearly reached on the step down to this level last time out. He boasts ample staying power for these; mind value.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

6 - WARRAWEE TOTAL lifted well for the line but just missed on the drop to this level last week. This group feels even more manageable; Nap opts to remain aboard. 1 - CLOUDBREAK steps down from N3L company, where he was even on a couple occasions but largely overmatched. The pole can serve to get him closer to the pace, as well. 3 - WHATA TWIST improved mildly from astern last week after chasing evenly to preserve fifth on the drop to this level. Minor option with similar; a lack of early pace on paper can help him land closer early on.

Race 12 - Non-Winners 1 Race

3 - BOOM CITY lunged boldly to narrowly miss two back, and since turned in a 1:57 2/5 mile at Pocono in a similar class. Raw speed edge is clear. 5 - MIDNIGHT CITY improved with a fourth-place and a third-place finish since returning to action after nearly two years away. He's still warming up; Nap remains on. 1 - BUSY DOING TRIX broke on the final turn at Yonkers last week in pursuit of the front flight of a tougher N2L group. The pole can aid, as can the switch back to three turns.

Race 13 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

7 - STENHOUSE HANOVER makes his second start back after circling from astern to save the last cheque a few weeks ago. He bottoms out on the local class ladder; expect sharper coming back. 6 - MABEL SIMMONS invades from Ontario after earning minors in her last four north of the border. Stalker-closer held her own in comparable groups at Kawartha and Georgian. 4 - LANDONFITZ rallied to hit the board in three of his last four at Vernon. Tougher await on arrival, but his staying power warrants respect in exotics.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - BADIX HANOVER tired late after a wide dispatch in his last, but kept a pressing bid alive for third with similar the start before. Pole can help him stay strong to the end of this mile. 8 - TRUMP THAT pressed hard up the backstretch and held well to just miss Urban Renewal last week. On the flip side, he'll have to overcome the eight-hole this time, but he's got arguably the best form in this group. 2 - PENZANCE HANOVER chased for minors in his last five, all at this level or slightly above. Presser-stalker figures well for all exotics.