Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Friday 9/25

Through Sept. 13 - 50 days Top Selections - Overall
Win %: 272 for 702 (38.7%) ITM: 497 for 702 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $1,191.50 $2 ROI: $1.70
Best Bets: 24/32, $69.10 (+$5.10)
Spot Plays: 4/32, $21.80 (-$42.20)
Pick-4: 4,7,8/3,5/1,4,7/3,5 ($18)
Best Bet: Molto Bene (Race 6)
Spot Play: Galveston (Race 12)

Race 1 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - CAJOLE HANOVER drops a level after chasing into the money in two straight against third-level types. Form is ramping back up; relief can only aid. 5 - ZAGSTER cuts back to three turns after nearly wiring tougher at Yonkers. He did slow up considerably off the home turn, but the venue change and midpack draw can help him improve. 4 - REMARKABLE DE VIE circled boldly into the far turn on the drop to this level last week and stuck around for third at 45-1 after levelling off. Kirby opts to remain on the credible closer.

Race 2 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

1 - TONIANNE rallied off cover for second on debut and turned in another runner-up finish last week after directly pressing the pace. Amply strong despite again taking on older foes. 7 - TEMPURA HANOVER tired some late after working hard to secure the pocket in her last. Aggressive placement has suited her better, it seems. 8 - BEAVER CREEK MISTY was an even fourth in her last two tries, both at this level. Wide draw is her biggest obstacle, but it can serve to lift her price considerably, too.

Race 3 - Liberty Bell (PA-sired 3YO fillies)

2 - NEXT LEVEL STUFF was engulfed in upper stretch after setting stout fractions in the PASS final. The only filly in this field to race in the Hambletonian Oaks has every chance to rebound. 7 - DIP ME HANOVER improved well from astern to claim third in the PASS final, but since was too far from striking range in an upper-level M1 overnight. That said, it's worth noting that she was only 4-3/4 lengths out of second. Minor stakes success all summer encourages. 4 - FIFTY CENT PIECE was the runner-up in the same race Dip Me Hanover exits, but will probably take more play as a result. While maybe a little more capable owing to sustained first-over grinds and a PASS win in August, the underlay potential is also greater. Weigh all factors carefully.

Race 4 - Liberty Bell (PA-sired 3YO fillies)

6 - ROCKNIFICENT is a multiple PA Sire Stakes winner who gave futile chase to Party Girl Hill and JK First Lady in the Sept. 6 final. She dodges them here; easily the filly to beat. 1 - DRAMA ACT won two of her last three, including a commanding 1:50 score in the Keystone Classic just nine days ago. Credit her work to advance into a :26 4/5 third split in the PASS final. 7 - PAIGE'S GIRL takes on tougher, but she is undefeated in two starts. She repelled pressure smartly in her last; worth a shot at a fair price.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

8 - ELYSIUM LINDY may have to overcome the widest post in this field, but he drops in class once again after being overpowered by a much tougher Two AM on an earned lead at Pocono. Far easier await on arrival, and Nap opts aboard. 3 - TOUR DE LINDY improved gradually from astern in a tougher event on Sunday. Before that, he pressed and stalked his way to top-three finishes in three straight at Harrington. Post relief can only help, too. 6 - CHOCO CHARLIE makes the most pronounced class drop in the field after even or better finishes in upper-winners races. 2 - OOH RAH rises after dominating easier at Freehold at odds-on, and 5 - TONY SOPRANO finished well - well enough to easily crack the Hi-5 here - after breaking early in his last.

Race 6 - Liberty Bell (PA-sired 3YO fillies)

6 - MOLTO BENE was very good in the Kentucky Commonwealth final, blitzing without cover on the far turn and powering clear to win in 1:53 2/5. The switch to three turns will put a damper on raw speed, to be sure, but none in this group match her class and form at present. Seeks a fourth straight win; seek value in exotics. 4 - IMPRESSIVE FASHION pressed on the far turn at The Red Mile in her last, only to stall and be eclipsed by Molto Bene after forcing a :28 1/5 third split. Her lone win this season came over this track in a Stallion Series event in July. 2 - SVF BLUSHINGBRIDE rebounded pretty well from a break in the PASS consolation with a hard-earned win and a near miss in two overnight tries. Tougher invade, but her form is improving. Consider for minors.

Race 7 - Non-Winners 1 Race

8 - DRAIN THE SWAMP has demonstrated marked improvement since adding hopples. Just on Monday, he made two moves into a credible second-place finish at 7-1. He seems able to overcome this wide draw. 4 - GRAN PARAISO just missed second at this level last week, but did significantly more work for his position than Ghost Pepper - the runner-up - did. Mid-price player seemed to turn a major corner three starts back. 7 - GHOST PEPPER made a stout bid from the pocket last week and chased similarly for second two back as well. Marcus opts to remain on the improving son of Andover Hall; a lack of inside speed should help him land close early.

Race 8 - Liberty Bell (PA-sired 3YO fillies)

3 - DANCE CLUB gave futile chase to some of the best in the continent in her PA Sire Stakes campaign. Easier await in this return effort; raw speed is as good as any here. 5 - GOING GONE HANOVER cleaned up on the lower circuit but failed to sustain a wide push in the same Keystone Classic split that Dance Club exits. Capable for sure, but mind value. 4 - WAYSIDE escaped traffic to save a no-match second in the Stallion Series final and rallied similarly to hit the ticket in three of her preliminaries.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - SOMEWHERE FANCY almost converted at twos-on last week after just missing tougher from an earned pocket. Form has improved with the recent steps down in class. He's best suited to be on or near the lead, and this race doesn't seem to offer much in the way of early resistance. 7 - JJ FLYNN has been fourth or better in six of his last seven, all against comparable company or tougher - all the way up to his runner-up finish from off the pace in a top-level conditioned event on July 26. Capable presser-stalker, to be sure. 1 - MR PROFETA steps back down to this proven level where he rallied off cover to take second both two and five back. Closer cover can help him immensely; he's not lacking for staying power in the least.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

5 - ARDIE B SPEED brushed and gave way on the drop back to this level, but he chased well enough to save second in his debut for Mosher. Nearly identical circumstances prevail this afternoon. 3 - BEVANS CULLEN pressed and tired in each of his last two. Minors with two levels tougher as recently as July encourage; Nap's choice of three. 1 - HEERE COMEES SWIFTY improved belatedly to hit the board in two of his last three. Figures to be close with ease from the pole.

Race 11 - Liberty Bell (PA-sired 3YO fillies)

6 - SHERRY LYNS LADY wired her foes in the PA Sire Stakes consolation earlier this month. Raw speed is among the best in this group. 3 - DUNE HILL broke at The Meadows last week, but reeled off seven straight wins before that. She's fast and versatile, but likely overbet. 2 - MISS MCKEE seeks a third win in four after open-length scores in a Stallion prelim and her Keystone Classic split. Likely forwardly placed from the outset.

Race 12 - Non-Winners 1 Race

3 - CAVIART RICHMOND raced credibly in a summer stakes campaign, tracking and stalking his way into the money in three of six tries. Easier await on arrival from The Meadows. 6 - ADDISON HANOVER had some issues in his two stakes outings, but has demonstrated recent improvement in terms of raw speed and closing ability. Last week, he made over nine lengths of ground through the final quarter. Nap's choice of three. 8 - GALVESTON is yet again worth consideration in all exotics and boasts the potential of lifting dividends all round. He's hit the board in six of eight, and despite having lots of pace last week, he lacked for room (he was demoted for bullying his way out and lifting in the final 70 yards).

Race 13 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - MCERLEAN closed ground belatedly at triple-digit odds last Friday, and now drops two levels below his most recent win. Back class for days. 7 - LAREDO TORPEDO N drops similarly after slightly better than even finishes in his last two. Wide draw is his likely nemesis; staying power is not in doubt. 1 - BURNING MIDNIGHT sprinted off on debut for Taneyhill at Pocono and now must negotiate a slight step up. Pole keeps him close.

Race 14 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

8 - BUY IN simply dominated at this level on debut for DiDomenico last week after a string of respectable pressing efforts for his previous connections. 5 - TAIL HOOK reached the board in five straight from close stalking trips. Simon opts off, but this one figures still to land close without much trouble. 3 - SWEET TRUTH attracts Simon after a failed first-over push in the Keystone Classic, but belated rallies for minors at this level encourage. Be wary of underlay potential.