Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Friday 9/18

(Through Sept. 13 – 50 days) Top Selections - Overall
Win %: 272 for 702 (38.7%) ITM: 497 for 702 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $1,191.50 $2 ROI: $1.70
Best Bets: 24/32, $69.10 (+$5.10)
Spot Plays: 4/32, $21.80 (-$42.20)
Pick-4: 4,6,7/6,8/3,6,7/3,5,6
Best Bet: Somewhere Fancy (Race 12)
Spot Play: Knightofvictory (Race 14)

Race 1 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - SUM FOR ALL passed tired foes in his return outing last week after nearly two months off. Similar await; post relief and Corey's choice both noted. 3 - HAMMER CREEK made a wide bid up the far side before fading in pursuit of Troller last out. This group seems more manageable by comparison. 5 - ALLERAGE ECHO is Morgan's choice after a no-match but even effort last out. Improvement in a four-day span clearly noted; watch for further headway.

Race 2 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

1 - DIAMONDBEACH gains the pole and Nap's respect after even but non-threatening efforts in his last couple. Raw speed edge is clearly noted in this race which sees most of the likely speed line up on the outside. 3 - SOUTHWIND DREDGE improved belatedly to hit the super in two of four since graduating from bottom-level company. On the improve; needs a clear journey. 7 - HOLY MOMENT rises from a hard-earned maiden win amid good form. He's only missed the board once in his career, and that came from a failed first-over push into a :26 4/5 third quarter.

Race 3 - Non-Winners 1 Race

7 - CYRUS PEAK is improving steadily, and while he tackles older competition today, his pressing and lunging ability developed in recent weeks really impresses. He's clearly on the right track after exiting stakes company. 4 - BORN FREE DE VIE hit the board in his last four, including a 1:52 4/5 effort on arrival last Friday. He has proven closing ability from deep back in lesser fields, and his :27 3/5 closing sectional on arrival last week is more than enough to stay with this group. Tim elects to remain aboard. 1 - STAR SPEAKER chased evenly or just better in recent outings, and has improved to hit the board at large odds twice in his last three. Pole keeps him close with minimal exertion.

Race 4 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

3 - TUIS SHADOW lifted well to save third at large odds in each of his last two at the level. There's minimal speed to his inside, so a closer stalking spot is very much a likelihood. Performances of late exceed expected value. 4 - DURHAMVILLE was reeled in late following a middle move to take charge on the drop to this level last week. Despite late regression, overall raw speed is ample. Forgive stakes lines at The Meadows. 5 - WILLING HANOVER rises from the maiden ranks after lifting steadily to just convert last Friday. He's developed into a capable stalking-closing type; week-over-week improvement is a definite plus.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - WHAT CHAPTER floated forward and then improved wide of foes to take third in his return outing. When he was right this summer, he was a force with tougher. Steps up gently; expect tighter. 6 - CAJOLE HANOVER dropped back to this level last week and was a good second at 21-1 to the tough Sylvesteramericait - who had been competing one to two classes above this one. Definite consideration to boost value. 2 - CHUCKY DE VIE rises off a stout Pocono win. Forgive his Aug. 11 outing; gait issues don't seem to be a problem around three turns. 3 - TONY SOPRANO was better than even on the rise back to this level, and 1 - LUCKYCOMPETER can benefit from extreme post relief in his second local try.

Race 6 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

3 - OK LETS ROCKNROLL improved to hit the board last out after being ground down on the point on Aug. 25. On the whole, she brings the best form and raw speed into this race. 6 - TONIANNE performed credibly on debut, improving steadily in the breeze for a no-match second. She's got lots of room to grow yet. 7 - TEMPURA HANOVER keeps Tetrick after failing to threaten in her last, but she draws into an easier maiden field. Even finishes for minors earlier in the season are more indicative of ability to boost exotic value.

Race 7 - 2YO Non-Winners 2 Races

4 - INCENTIVE was overmatched in recent stakes assignments, but did turn in a 1:55 3/5 mile at Pocono in his career debut in July. That performance alone is enough to tower over this group. Class relief can go a long way toward boosting confidence. 7 - YUCATAN PARTY MAN started to put things together on the Excelsior circuit pretty well toward the end of the summer. He's developed into a consistent presser-stalker, and could prove himself a solid mid-price player on the drop into this condition. 6 - LINDYS BOOZE CRUZ never got involved in the Stallion Series final, but pressed his way to a going-away win at sixes three back. Capable; mind value.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - FASHION BYTHEBEACH drops in from $25k claimers at Harrington which saw him stay even from astern last out and tire after a cutthroat duel two back. Far easier await; Tetrick's back on for the first time since they won from the pocket on June 15. 8 - ROUGH ODDS chased well for second against tougher two back, but failed to sustain a wide bid into the far turn on the drop. Wide draw notwithstanding, he's got the raw speed and enough of a class edge to contend.

Race 9 - Non-Winners 1 Race

Three of these horses were second at this level in their last starts, but all three did widely varying amounts of work. On account of that, 7 - OUR MEMORIES gets a slim nod from me. In what was her first career start, she controlled the terms throughout, only to be outfought to the line in a 1:58 mile. While Ghost Pepper was faster last out, this one did more work and stands to improve coming right back. 6 - BOOM CITY stalked and lifted late in :29 to just miss last out. He's chased to hit the board in three of five, and he seems to do his best work just upon cornering for home. 5 - GHOST PEPPER was a one-paced second from an earned pocket last week, and demonstrated pressing and mild closing ability in previous outings. Definitely capable, but mind value.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

5 - ROLL WITH JEFF is a definite bet-back for me after his two recent efforts to get involved from wide draws and nearly hold on. Post relief can give him the extra oomph he needs on arrival, and Tetrick opts on. 6 - ARDIE B SPEED was lots better than 22-1 on debut for Mosher last week, chasing after being overpowered and still holding second spot at this level. Roughie potential. 3 - JOE MCDUDE drops in class once again after racing at M1 last week. After being stung early from post 10, he only missed by less than four lengths for it all. Post and class relief help his cause, but again, mind value.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

3 - SCIROCCO PATRICK dropped to this level last Thursday and saved second after being caught in through the far turn. Stallion Series success can definitely carry to this spot. 1 - BALDAQUIN returned to action after nine months off just last week, and he swung four-wide to make steady ground off the home turn and take third in the same race Scirocco Patrick exits. Every reason to expect sharper coming right back. 6 - HABANERO K flattened after his second-over pursuit through the far turn, but was even late to complete a 1:55 1/5 mile at 16-1. Tim stays on; can share in exotics.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - SOMEWHERE FANCY was amply fast in tougher races this summer, but too often failed to work into striking range. He soundly beat similar seven back, and he most recently just missed fourth-level types from an earned pocket. Solid option here. 2 - BEACH BOOGIE makes a fourth straight step down after being overmatched in winners-over races early in the summer. Last week, he worked to save fifth after being shuffled out the back. Clear sailing is a must. 3 - IN SPADES, like Somewhere Fancy, drops to a proven level, but he was just even in his most recent. He'll need to be closer to the action for best results in this tougher-than-usual third-level assignment.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

1 - POCKET WATCH N wired similar in the slop in his U.S. debut a few weeks ago. Similar await the 4-year-old who only figures to be sharper from the pole. 8 - BILLY LINCOLN N overcame the 10-hole to win at M1 a couple weeks ago. He seeks a third in four; wide draw is once again his main obstacle. 4 - BUY IN is the likely catalyst for pace pressure, having hit the board from first-over trips in his last three. Debuts for DiDomenico and Tetrick.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - ICINGON DE CUPCAKE was a one-paced third from the pocket at M1 last out, and now gets another cut back in class. Cosy draw keeps him involved with ease. 3 - KNIGHTOFVICTORY chased evenly for minor cheques in his last two against tougher, and now drops amid improving form. He was second the last time he took on this level of competition, and that was after clearing from the eight-hole, no less. 8 - BOXING GLOVES came back with a pair of good third-place finishes against tougher. While he draws outside, he should have an easier time sustaining a pressing or stalking bid in this kinder group.