Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Friday 9/11

Win %: 185 for 463 (40.0%) ITM: 328 for 463 (70.8%)
Win Dividends: $751.70 $ROI: $1.62
Best Bets: 24/32, $69.10 (+$5.10)
Spot Plays: 4/32, $21.80 (-$42.20)
Best Bet: Aflame Hanover (Race 8)
Spot Play: Capital T Storm (Race 6)
Pick-4: 2,5,7/1,3/5,7/2,5,6 ($18)

Race 1 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - WIN NOT LOU kept up well from the pocket last out after being overmatched by the tough Nicholas Beach twice prior. Speed and form are both crystal clear. 7 - SWEEET TRUTH rallied out of traffic to save fourth last week - in fact, after being shuffled, he made up over two lengths in the final furlong IN pursuit of Bombshell Hanover. Early-season Stallion Series success encourages. 5 - PADDY ALL DAY was softened up amid sustained pressure last week after even chasing efforts for minors from mid-division in two past tries at the level. Minor contender with a kinder journey.

Race 2 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - APEX SEELSTER hit the board in three of his last five, all at this level or higher. Forgive his effort two back owing to the wide draw and rearward journey. He should fare far better if able to stay close from the inside. 5 - MR PROFETA hasn't lacked for late pace in three starts since rising to this level. Closing ability off cover noted; value is a distinct possibility. 8 - IDEAL WHEEL drops to his most recent winning level after traffic and uncovered trips troubled him of late. Wide draw is his biggest obstacle; Nap does opt to remain aboard.

Race 3 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

2 - BEVANS CULLEN N bottoms out after keeping the pace honest in his last. There are definite signs of ability; can lift from that stout first-over try. 6 - LYONS WILLIAM never got involved from astern at Pocono in his last, but showed good pressing and stalking ability in previous tries. Class relief and a kinder draw can aid. 7 - BLUEBIRD GOLDWYN makes his second start back after toiling late at 101-1 in his return outing. Expect tighter second out in a field that largely lacks for consistent options.

Race 4 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

3 - ANDELA dropped from Stallion Series to N3L company last week and chased evenly. The strength of her maiden win three back indicates she's capable of better, and that 1:55 mile from last week is enough to beat this group. 5 - SABATINO invades from Vernon and debuts for Crissman after posting a win and a third in his last three starts. Variables abound; worth a shot at big odds. 2 - DURHAMVILLE tired late in two Stallion Series tries for Betts at The Meadows, but looked good in his maiden-breaking effort at Plainridge on Aug. 14. A return to that form puts him in the hunt here.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

8 - CARRICK won well at this level six back, and held his own a level above in two of his last four. Just last week, he chased well to save third behind the battle-tested Dayson. Easier await; leaving ability from the outside will come in handy. 2 - SYLVESTERAMERICAIT drops in class for the second straight week after a failed first-over try in the same race Carrick exits. Earlier this summer, he fared quite well in upper-level fields. This relief can help him regain his form. 6 - KINDA LUCKY LINDY won going away at Freehold last week, and steps up mildly off that refresher. Forgive his last local try; he pushed hard to vie for the lead early before ultimately tiring. Kinder trips yielded minors with tougher.

Race 6 - 2YO Non-Winners 2 Races

7 - CAPITAL T STORM enjoyed mild success in three Stallion Series assignments, and now he gains a pretty hefty step down. Nap takes over the lines for Åke, as well. 6 - CEFFYL DWR did what Capital T Storm couldn't: win a Stallion Series race. That said, he gives up a slight speed advantage on the whole and had the aid of the pocket in that victory, which is now just over a month ago. Mind value owing to present variables. 8 - HALL IT IN chased to save second in his last two tries at this level, and he's definitely faster than the above named stakes colts. Post 8, gait issues give a bit of pause, but he's capable with even just less than his best. Demand value.

Race 7 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

7 - FARADY HANOVER was hampered by early road trouble in her PASS consolation last Saturday, but still mustered a good first-over try up the far side. Before that, she stayed on respectably in her lone two overnight assignments. Todd McCarthy opts aboard. 5 - JOYCES SECRET gained steadily in the breeze and more or less maintained her position in her second career start after chasing well from the pocket on debut. There's clear ability. 2 - IF UR RICHIMSINGLE can benefit from post relief after blasting from post 7 and being gathered in late last out. Still, she improved, as it was her first top-three finish.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - AFLAME HANOVER faces maybe the easiest field of his career after post 8 taxed him at The Meadowlands last out. Post and class relief are bound to help him regain earlier form; still, he paced sub-1:49 miles in July stakes assignments. The one to beat. 3 - DECLAN SEELSTER has what it takes to beat Aflame Hanover if the former doesn't bring it. He similarly drops in class after proving himself well in pressing and stalking outings at levels above this one. 7 - TACT TATE N handled the step up to this level with aplomb, I thought. After brushing to retake, he turned aside pressure on the final turn before being reeled in. Value option is on a clear upswing.

Race 9 - Non-Winners 1 Race

5 - IDEAL ARTILLERY exits NY Sire Stakes company, where he chased for minor honours consistently. Three back, he nearly lifted to reach at big odds in a 1:52 3/5 mile at Yonkers. Class edge should carry him here pretty easily. 7 - PLAY THERAPY hit the board in four straight, including his swan song at Woodbine on July 16. Since, he's established himself as a type who perches just off the top flight and lifts late. Clear sailing is a must. 4 - PACK UP AND GO hit the board in his last four overnight tries, both here and Pocono. He can stalk, press, or close from a little bit deeper.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - ANOTHER BREATH chased evenly against similar last Friday, but before that, mounted a strong three-wide push into the far turn in a third-level race. Not lacking for upside. 6 - POWERFUL YIELD drops in class too after hitting the super in five of his last six — and all against tougher. Still, he's winless on the year; mind value. 5 - ATABOY HANOVER didn't particularly lack for late trot last week but was engulfed by a number of stronger finishers off the home turn. Easier await the presser-stalker.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 1 Race

8 - STEEL SCHOONER broke the 1:56 mark three times already this season, and as such owns the three fastest miles on the page. Drops in from Stallion Series competition; gains Nap. 2 - WILLING HANOVER almost got the job done last week in a thrilling stretch drive. Improving closer is really ramping up. 1 - GRAN PARAISO chased from a loose pocket in the same race Willing Hanover exits, and stayed on respectably for third at big odds. Can share in exotics with ease from the pole.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - DIVISION BELL chased evenly at long odds against N4L in his last, and now finds himself in a significantly easier spot on arrival. Raw speed edge is clear as day. 4 - MR HASANI N rises after lifting to win at sevens. Generally speaking, he finishes decently enough unless he isn't taxed in the early going. 1 - BOMBAY HANOVER was just collared by Mr Hasani N after dictating the pace on the drop last week. Moves back up, but into a fairly manageable second-level group.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

5 - SVF BLUSHINGBRIDE broke in the PASS consolation, but sustained a wide bid to win at this level three back. Returns to a proven class; amply fast. 6 - CAFE AMERICANO was a minor player in Stallion Series company last month, and now gets a cut back after just missing from a cosy stalking trip. 3 - LAZER JET reached at 13-1 to beat similar three back, and since pressed and stalked into minors. Can factor credibly in exotics again.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - JK MUSICMAN gets the call from me in the last on the step down from a stern first-over try. He did back away late, but only after forcing a :27 2/5 third quarter. Back to his last winning level now. 1 - BO MACH keeps moving down the class ladder after largely mid-1:51 miles were insufficient. That kind of raw speed fits in well here, and the pole gives Kirby tactical options. 6 - ANWAR HANOVER lifted late for second at massive odds on the drop to this level last week. Clear sailing can help him boost exotic value again; the breeze, on the other hand, not so much.