Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Friday 8/14

Best Bet: Coventry Hall (Race 6)
Spot Play: Joe McDude (Race 14)

Pick-4: 4,7/1,2,8/4/1,2,3,5,6 ($15)

Race 1 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

Plenty of credible options present themselves in this well-matched fourth-level field, but the strongest in my opinion is the class-dropping 5 - THE WALL, who chased stoutly from an earned pocket in fifth-level company just on Sunday. Closer placement did him well, and another midpack draw can yield a similarly strong dispatch. 1 - APEX SEELSTER isn't among the six in this field to drop in class, but he gave a strong first-over account of his abilities on the step down last week — much stronger than his 13-1 off odds would otherwise have indicated. 2 - JK MUSICMAN retains Nap, but effectively has to step up 1-1/2 levels after just holding sway in 1:50 3/5 at odds-on. Inside draw should keep him close and his raw speed suits, but mind value.

Race 2 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

4 - OK LETS ROCKNROLL pressed steadily to just miss at 20-1 last week. Further improvement third out is a likelihood; raw speed is more than ample. 1 - GABBY TABBY never got involved from astern last out but did not lack for late pace. She stayed on OK last time she was here. Pole keeps her close with ease. 8 - BEACHALLUWANT turned in a solid debut effort last week, gaining late after being carried wide off the corner. Wide draw looms, but she's got clear potential.

Race 3 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - LIFEONTHEBEACH pressed and levelled off last time, but gets an easier task on account of four foes rising. Polee keeps him close; he won at this level four back. 4 - CAPTAIN NASH rises off a solid 1:52 1/5 score in his second start back. Prior to that, he lifted stoutly off cover to take second in the slop at Pocono. Versatility noted. 2 - CAPTAIN DISOMMA can figure well to add value to exotics with a closing effort similar to his last few. Mild class hike can be compensated for by way of his strong chasing ability.

Race 4 - 2YO Non-Winners 2 Races

1 - CATELLO drops from Stallion Series company after staying on respectably for third at long odds last week. Minor player is improving; gains the pole. 2 - HALL IT IN tired amid pursuit in a faster Stallion Series split after a good runner-up outing on debut. Back to a competitive level; mind value. 5 - VENTURESOME improved steadily up the far side in his last to take third at this level most recently. Minor player can benefit from a slightly improved draw.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - CLASSY GUY only missed $25k claimers by two lengths at Pocono in his last — and the fact that he was significantly hampered by mid-race traffic makes that effort all the more credible. Before that, he chased for minors in stout N5L company. Can strike in this easier spot. 5 - NEXTROUNDSONME rises after a convincing drop-and-pop out of upper winners races. Looking back to those tougher lines: While he didn't hit the board, he was consistently even or a little better. This step up from second-level company is minor by comparison. 2 - MOSCONI HANOVER chased well to hit the board in two recent tries at this level, and his inside draw can help keep him prominent early without requiring much exertion. 6 - RENTIER rises amid improving form, and 8 - KNIGHTOFVICTORY gets another crack at this level after early-season success against easier and some time off to refresh. Both can figure to boost Hi-5 value.

Race 6 - Non-Winners 1 Race

5 - COVENTRY HALL chased to protect third in the Tompkins (the Tompkins is the trotting stakes; the Geers is the pacing event that typically accompanies) behind the much tougher Rome Pays Off. Two starts before that, he gave similar pursuit to protect third in the Currier & Ives. This group is far more manageable than those Grand Circuit fields. No excuse to not improve markedly. 1 - BASTION lifted belatedly into third at this level last week after gaining cover. Nap opts to stay aboard the gradually improving filly. 6 - DOMINIC DE VIE pressed hard in his 3-year-old debut before levelling off, and more recently improved belatedly for the last minor. Save for Coventry Hall, this group shapes up as more manageable.

Race 7 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

7 - BOMBSHELL HANOVER seeks a third straight win after pressing and duelling down P-Drive Hanover last week. They meet again today; this one gets the edge by way of current form and the amount of work he did to prevail last week. 4 - P-DRIVE HANOVER has improved markedly in recent weeks and fought gamely in defeat last week. Mind value. 6 - HEY RUN ME OVER stalked the duel last week and lifted at eights to just miss. Provided he's got a way into the race, he can boost exotic value in a big way.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

8 - ACTOR HANOVER has hit the board in six of seven starts this meet, all against comparable company and from a variety of trips, too. He can leave from the outside, he can press, or he rally off cover. Form, versatility and class all unite. 2 - SPIRIT OF TRUTH rises off a hard M1 win, but missed his last assignment due to illness. Even from rearward trips two and three back, he showed good late pace on the long stretch. Closer draw works to his favour. 1 - LAREDO TORPEDO N rises again after a narrow defeat to Ideal Wheel, but this one gets the nod for minors on account of having done more work in his last three starts with only slightly worse results. He's quite clearly on the improve; can share with similar trajectory.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - ANYTHINGFORLOVE A lunged out of an earned pocket to just miss tougher last week after toiling in upper-level races. Further relief can get him the rest of the way, especially in a race with few serious threats. 1 - OZONE BLUE CHIP can benefit from post relief after floating and chasing into second at long odds on the step down to this level in his last. 8 - SKIP TO MY LOU hasn't lacked for pace against tougher in his last two. The wide draw is his biggest obstacle, but he's got some of the best staying power here.

Race 10 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

5 - DEVIOUS HANOVER gave good chase to protect a no-match third last week, and she gained into third in a Stallion Series event three back. Raw speed and slight class edge both noted; Nap opts on over two others. 3 - ZOE F rises after pushing clear of slightly kinder N2L foes at Pocono. She's improved steadily since returning to action. 1 - LAZER JET faces winners for the first time after pushing to an odds-on score. Strong finisher can factor for at least a share; pole can aid.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - SMOOTH ACCELERATION suffered from gait issues two and three back, but redeemed himself well 12 days ago at Pocono with a well-earned third against just tougher. This time around, he won't have to blast hard from the outside for early position, and he gets a much easier group. Lots to like if he stays flat; early summer form supports. 3 - SORTIE HANOVER exits $15k claimers at Pocono and demonstrated good staying power in all three tries for Pavia at that level. Easier await on arrival. 7 - WAYWARD MAN can significantly lift exotic value with even a repeat of one of his last four efforts. He can chase OK, and he can leave enough from the outside to land in the early mix.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

1 - JOE HILL was just collared after being used to clear on the drop last week. Pole can give him enough oomph to dig in a little deeper in the lane. 2 - MR D'S DRAGON was gathered in late in his last after toiling for minors against tougher earlier in the summer. Mind value. 6 - WAVES OF FIRE A has had mixed results since dropping to this level last month. There's ability for sure; demand value in exotics.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 1 Race

2 - ROCKIN ROCKO almost lasted on July 13, but was just nabbed at the end of a 1:51 2/5 mile. His qualifier since served to keep him sharp, to be sure. 4 - TECHTOPIA HANOVER chased for second twice in his last three at the level. Midpack draw gives Stafford tactical options galore. 8 - MEET THE CREEPER toiled from an earned pocket last out, but held for minors at 20-1 or longer in three of his last four at the level. Good candidate for deeper exotics.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

Five of these eight horses step down in class, making for a tougher third-level test than usual, but 7 - JOE MCDUDE is extremely encouraging after his push around rivals into third at 16-1 last Friday. While he's tasked with another wide draw, even the slightly more manageable group (by way of the inside pair not moving) can give him enough relief to lift. 4 - EFFRONTE was softened by sustained pressure through the far turn at M1 in the Hambo Day finale. Before that, he reached from an earned pocket at this level. Clearly capable; mind value. 1 - ROUGH ODDS hasn't lacked late pace in his last two, but was too far from the action to pose a bigger threat. Pole can serve to keep this respectable finisher closer.