Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Friday 7/31

Win %: 108 for 294 (36.7%) ITM: 202 for 294 (68.7%)
Win Dividends: $428.20 $2 ROI: $1.46
BB: 12/16, $35.00 (+$3.00) SP: 1/17, $4.20 (-$29.80)
Best Bet: Marseille (Race 6)
Spot Play: EI EI O (Race 3)
Pick-4: 1,3/2,3,4,5/2,5/4,7 ($16)

Race 1 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

6 - I GET THAT drops another level after toiling in upper-winners races just four weeks ago. He's got the speed to contend here, and Allard opts on. 7 - MODERN REFLECTION makes a third straight drop after wide draws did him in twice and he just couldn't get involved from astern in his local debut. Further relief can aid. 5 - POGEY BEACH gains Brennan after a failed backstretch bid in his last. He's shown just enough of late to figure for a minor in this much kinder spot.

Race 2 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

2 - TEMPURA HANOVER drops in from well-earned third-place finishes in Stallion Series company, and it's worth noting that only one of her rivals today is older. Class edge can carry in a field composed mostly of rookies. 4 - WATERBOARD was a minor player in tougher stakes, but she has regressed late in each of her three starts today. Still, she's been no worse than fourth. 7 - CLASSICIST lifted well out of mid-division to take second behind Fireside in her career debut a fortnight ago. Arguably the strongest finisher in the group; Miller opts to remain aboard.

Race 3 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - EI EI O gets significant credit from me for his Ocean start last Friday: he made two significant moves in the first six furlongs before regressing. Post relief can aid, and he's proven to fare decently with tougher groups here already this summer. Strong value option. 5 - BROADWAY MOJO weakened in pursuit at M1 last out, and simply failed to threaten two levels tougher before that. He drops for the third straight start and Nap opts on, but be mindful of value. 6 - OBERTO angled three-wide into the final turn last week and stayed on respectably with the second flight. Even finishes with tougher make him a credible player here for at least a minor.

Race 4 - Non-Winners 1 Race

8 - BUCKWELL hit the board in his last six starts dating back to last September. He's consistently the fastest in this group and he gains Brennan amid ramping form. 6 - MIKI U SO FINE takes on older after gamely fighting on the point last out and lifting mildly out of traffic on debut. He's got ample staying power already. 3 - GALVESTON proved a capable closer in his Harrington lines earlier this month, making significant ground out of wide draws to hit the board. Post relief on arrival can give him a comparable task despite the rise to face tougher.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - POWERFUL YIELD finished well to hit the board in his last two tries at this level, just missing a rising Cajole Hanover in his most recent try. Rising form at the class encourages despite Tetrick opting off. 6 - DI OGGI worked really hard in the breeze last week and in fact took second with seven-sixteenths to go before being rebuffed and giving his all to hold third. He didn't get beat for second by that much, and the horse who was second - Turville Hanover - was able to stalk cosily until hooking three-wide and lifting in upper stretch. Give credit to the extra work this one did, for sure. 5 - RACEACE parried pressure to convert at odds-on last week, and he rises into a pretty manageable third-level group. What's encouraging to me is that he closed steadily for second behind a rather strong Izoh at this level three back, but I don't expect much in the way of value. 7 - TURVILLE HANOVER and 2 - CASA PALMERA are my honourable mentions owing to staying power at the level.

Race 6 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

7 - MARSEILLE had to chase Gimpanzee in both of his appearances to date this year, and was negatively impacted by traffic in the 13-horse Hambletonian Maturity after blasting clear and yielding. This much class relief should be able to get the 4-year-old home. 2 - WITH OUT A DOUBT chased well from the pocket to hold second last week and fought gamely under pressure thee start before. Form and versatility are both apparent. 6 - BARLEY invaded from the NJ Sire Stakes circuit last Thursday, and he closed from astern to make mild ground in the same race With Out A Doubt exits.

Race 7 - 2YO Fillies Non-Winners 2 Races

1 - DD'S DIAMOND proved a credible stakes player in two career starts so far. After chasing from astern on debut, she blasted from post 8 at Pocono, yielded, and chased well behind Pub Crawl in an All-Stars event. Easier foes and a much cosier draw await. Lots to like. 3 - MISS CLEOPATRICK did significant work in her local debut, grinding uncovered into a :28 1/5 third quarter and staying on well at sixes. Solid effort for her to build on. 7 - ANOKA HANOVER looks to win again at this level, but she tripped out behind Miss Cleopatrick in that July 17 score and only reached by a head. She's capable, but I wouldn't dare accept 2-1 on her off that line. Demand a better price.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $10,000 Lsat 5 Starts

Not much separates the top few in this fourth-level event, which is quite possibly the most challenging race on the card to handicap. 3 - WARRAWEE UNIQUE invaded on Sunday after two straight wins at The Meadows, and he raced with aplomb on a pretty hefty jump. After blasting clear from post 7 and yielding to Feeling Cam Lucky, he was left behind on the far turn and battled to only narrowly cede second after doing ample work in pursuit. 5 - CASH IS KING raced two days before Warrawee Unique did, and fought gamely under pressure after retaking, only to be beaten by his second-over rival off the home turn. In terms of the work these two did, it's pretty even. 2 - VEGA STAR N chased well at Pocono last week to post a 1:50 mile, and he's risen steadily since coming back to action in June. He hasn't missed the board in six tries.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - CRUSADES gets another crack at this group after his long first-over push last week ended off the home turn. Before that, he worked to victory over second-level types. Post relief should aid in this comparable group. 5 - SHANE ADAM pushed clear powerfully at the quarter pole last week, and now rises again after two solid second-level tries. Improved form duly noted. 7 - WARRAWEE TOTAL was all-out from thee pocket behind McErlean last Friday, and was only just collared for second in the last strides. Tetrick stays aboard an improving stayer.

Race 10 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

7 - BIG NUDGE worked up into second behind a sharp Iron Mine Diva last week, and chased well to just miss from the pocket before that. His last two lines indicate improved strength, and Brennan takes over now. 4 - STITCH HANOVER drops in from Stallion Series company after an even outing in traffic on Sunday. Kinder await and Dunn's back on - they won together here four weeks ago. 1 - BOSCH draws cosily and can track along with ease after hitting the board in two of four starts this year. He's clearly best when near the action.

Race 11 - 2YO Non-Winners 2 Races

3 - MYSTICAL KING won impressively at this level at Pocono two back after clearing from post 9 and fending off pressure on two separate occasions. He followed it up with a respectable chasing effort to hold third in a Stallion Series race. He's back to a winning level today. 2 - RARE MUSCLE makes his second career start after a :27 4/5 last quarter earned him an even fifth-place finish in stakes company at M1. Class relief and a kind draw can help him improve. 1 - TAKE THIS SOCIETY broke in his NJ Sire Stakes race, but he showed better in June qualifiers. Dunn opts aboard.

Race 12 - Non-Winners 1 Race

2 - LAZER JET circled strongly on the far turn last week, and his three-wide bid carried him into a third runner-up finish in four tries. Strong finishes set him apart from his foes today. 3 - I AM THE STORM is reunited with Tetrick amid respectable form of his own. He's chased from tracking trips for third in each of his last three, and his raw speed has improved steadily. 5 - LEVATOR toiled to hold fourth in a Stallion Series event on debut for Neilson, but made stout overland pushes locally twice before. Mind value.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

6 - SUNUMA BEACH returns east after chasing to hold second from the pocket in a fast Stallion Series event at The Meadows. He's a perfect two-for-two locally this season, and his wins have come from the pocket and amid a sustained duel alike. Capable. 2 - TELL THEM LOU gets a pass for his Meadows line on account of interference heading to the far turn. Before that, he demonstrated ample pressing ability at this level locally - forcing a :27 1/5 third quarter three back. Kinder trip lifts him. 3 - BUY IN makes the most pronounced drop in the group after toiling to no avail in Sire Stakes races, but he fared well in one try at this class and course on June 26. After pushing a :27 third quarter, he stuck around to just miss by a neck. An effort like that is worth a lot more respect than 8-1.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - SOLO STORY gets a third straight drop in class after solid finishes proved just insufficient. Last week, he lost cover, dove inside, and chased to narrowly miss second behind McErlean. Before that, he pressed strongly two levels above this one. Lots to like, but it all appears between the lines. 3 - URBAN RENEWAL dropped to this level last week and he chased cover to nab second. Form amid class relief encourages. 1 - PEMBROKE WILDCAT gains Tetrick this week after he saved third up the open stretch in pursuit of a hot pace last time. Pole keeps him close.