Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Friday 7/24

Best Bet: Solo Story (Race 5)
Spot Play: Mr Censi (Race 9)
Win %: 81 for 238 (34.0%)
ITM: 161 for 238 (67.6%)
Win Dividends: $305.80
$2 ROI: $1.29
BB: 12/16, $35.00 (+$3.00)
SP: 1/17, $4.20 (-$29.80)

Pick-4 Ticket: 4,7,8/1,2/1,4,6/3,8 - $18

Race 1 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

8 - GINGRAS BEACH hit the board in all four of his starts this season, including a pair of respectable chasing efforts in Stallion Series events after exerting for early position. He's proved his leaving ability well in his last two; wide draw does not concern on the step down. 6 - WIN NOT LOU tired late in his pursuit of a 1:50 mile at The Meadows last Saturday. Over this oval, he held his own much better for third behind Revolt. Easier await him, too. 5 - DIAMONDBEACH improved into fourth against stakes company two weeks ago after starting his 3-year-old campaign with back-to-back wins. He can brush or lift off cover alike.

Race 2 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - SIR JOHN F almost held on the point at odds-on last week, but was collared by a rapidly rising Cajole Hanover. Before that, he pressed and just missed at this level. Nap stays on. 4 - CASA PALMERA moves down a level after pressing and chasing to hold second at Yonkers in her second start back. Relief can aid further improvement. 3 - P L JERICO chased for third in two Yonkers starts since coming back - one above this level and one below. Switch to three turns improves staying power.

Race 3 - 2YO Non-Winners 2 Races

2 - HALL IT IN gave way on the final turn in his lone local qualifier, but his 1:58 4/5 time is the strongest on this page - including M1 miles. Plenty to like. 7 - CRICKET FASHION made steady headway to make up 12 lengths in the final half and just miss in his debut two weeks ago. Every chance to keep building; Dunn's in for this and one other. 6 - CEFFYL DWR chased evenly in both his qualifiers and can add value to exotics with a close and clear tracking trip like he's had so far.

Race 4 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

2 - MBT left hard to clear, yielded for the pocket and made a bid for second in the stretch last week, but was ultimately outkicked for that runner-up spot behind Fireside. Post relief can give her more late oomph coming back. 8 - HANNAH GRANT stayed on much better in her last at Pocono after pressing and fading locally on debut. Wide draw is her big stumbling block. 1 - GABBY TABBY improved late in her last after regressing some on debut. Cosiest draw for her to date can help her work closer to the pace.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

8 - SOLO STORY fits my main bet-back criteria: horse dropping in class after doing considerable work in his last and staying on respectably. He ground steadily into a :27 3/5 third quarter in fourth-level company last week, did level off, but still held third. Easier await today - in fact, he's the only one here to drop in class. 2 - WAGON MASTER lifted to beat just easier at Pocono in his last after failing to fire from astern against tougher. Inside draw keeps him close and clear; the step up isn't daunting at all. 5 - MCERLEAN pressed and flattened in thee same manner Solo Story did last week, albeit at this level. Still, his finishing ability can help him factor for at least a minor. 7 - CRUSADES and 4 - HERE COMES TEDDY look to rise off stout second-level outings in which they both took considerable air on their way to victory.

Race 6 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - BIODETTI HANOVER made steady uncovered gains through the middle half at M1 last out before fading. A third straight class drop can help those advances mean more. 4 - BATTLE MAGE chased respectably for minors in two Yonkers starts off the forced layoff. Similar await on arrival; Nap opts on. 1 - PARAGLIDER lifted late into third in each of his last two starts. While he was no match for the top pair last week, he sustained a three-wide push through the entire far turn to reach third. Strong roughie inclusion in exotics.

Race 7 - 2YO Fillies, Non-Winners 2 Races

Three of these rookies jump off the page to me, and all for different reasons. 7 - LOVE MUFFIN was a 1:57 Stallion Series winner from an earned pocket on debut, and then she fought bravely under pressure in defeat to Anoka Hanover just last week. A kinder situation through the final turn can help her rebound, but to her credit, she turned in a :56 4/5 final half in just her second career start. 8 - MIDPOINT posted a two-move Stallion Series win at The Meadows on debut. She worked forward for the pocket and then moved on the final turn to win going away in a pretty stout 1:58 4/5. This group figures to be a good bit more manageable. 4 - CALLAS almost reached on debut at Pocono, and her :28 2/5 closing speed is the second fastest over three turns on this page. Can build off a solid debut outing, for sure.

Race 8 - Non-Winners 1 Race

2 - HABANERO K made two separate moves to just miss Corsair on arrival last week. As expected, she was better second out. Further improvement is a definite possibility; Tim opts to stay on. 1 - LAZER JET is the other main contender by way of his 1:56 4/5 mile last week. He kept a first-over advance alive through a quickening pace on the far turn, note. 5 - I AM THE STORM tired from an earned pocket on the far turn in that same race, yet still held third and demonstrated improved raw speed. If he keeps improving as he has so far this year, he can figure for another minor.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - HIGHRTHANANEAGLE A edged clear at Pocono on the step down last week. The week before, he gave a strong accounting of his ability despite only mustering a sixth-place finish - and that line is what impressed me the most. He landed in the pocket from post 9 in a sharp :26 quarter, was shuffled and pinned in, and once free in the stretch, surged to only miss by three-quarters of a length. Granted, the pace slowed late, but he moved forward again once room availed. 4 - DRINKA BEER almost lasted at Pocono in his last after winning on the point at Yonkers off a long spell. This is only a mild step up; Nap remains. 1 - MR CENSI can yet again boost exotic value, and he's even more of a threat if he's clear earlier on the final turn. Last week, he charged up the open stretch to save second after being pinned in up the far side.

Race 10 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

3 - PIT MASTER brushed and dug in well to break maiden on debut. The son of Father Patrick looks to springboard off that measured mile, and this group of winners isn't too terribly daunting. 8 - LUCY MAE HANOVER also seeks back-to-back scores after pushing clear on the far turn at Ocean. This is a tougher group for thee 7-time winner, granted, but her improvement second out is a big plus. 4 - HIGHWAY TO THEE SKY didn't tire too badly after pushing clear early and giving way up the far side, but she was all-out to hold third. Minor option with less exertion from mid-division.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - CELEBRITY MASERATI fought under pressure here a fortnight ago, only to be softened up and overpowered in upper stretch. Post relief at least partially negates the step up for this versatile veteran. 2 - TURVILLE HANOVER rises after posting a two-move win at odds-on at Pocono. He fared respectably with tougher last fall. 5 - DI OGGI failed to fire three-wide last week, but battled well to beat a similar group at Pocono three starts back. Trip will be key; mind value.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

7 - LAREDO TORPEDO N worked up into third off the home turn in his last at M1, and he used a :27 closing quarter to hold that position. Further relief on arrival can yield further improvement - his speed towers over these, anyway. 8 - LOOKINFORADVEENTURE dug in under pressure after a middle move last week, but was worn down in the final sixteenth. Still, the 12-year-old's effort against tougher is encouraging for this step back down to the bottom level. 4 - CAPTAIN DISOMMA chased cover and made late inroads while four-wide in the stretch in the same race Lookinforadventure exits. A closer stalking spot helps this minor player on the drop.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 1 Race

6 - PADDY ALL DAY was even in his Stallion Series effort two weeks ago, and now he drops into a much kinder field in his second seasonal start. Solid showings in minor stakes can carry him a long way. 1 - LIGHT UP THE PARK sprinted off to a powerful qualifying win last week, and the change of tactics reflected a refreshed horse compared to flat outings from astern as a rookie. 3 - WHISKEY N COKE earned money in his last seven starts but takes on tougher on arrival. If he can step up raw speed on the switch to three turns, he can boost exotic value in this group.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - URBAN RENEWAL improved into third in his last two Pocono lines against tougher. His July 11 outing encouraged greatly, considering he stormed home out of traffic after floating and being shuffled. Nap's choice on the drop. 1 - SHANE ADAM mounted a three-wide rally last week after being shuffled into mid-division. A bigger threat if clear earlier. 6 - MR D'S DRAGON drops after an even effort for fifth in a third-level race. Two back, he tired late but had to exert himself from post 9 to land in midfield amid a hot early pace.