Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Friday 7/10

Meet Stats: 25 - 70 (35.7%), $103.00 (-$37.00)
Best Bets: 4 - 5, $10.20 (+$0.20)
Spot Plays: 0 - 5, $0.00 (-$10.00)
Best Bet: Thinkbig Dreambig (Race 9)
Spot Play: Fortify (Race 10)

Race 1 - Pennsylvania Stallion Series

6 - CAPTAIN'S REIGN made two distinct moves in his Meadows win on June 22. Now, the son of Captaintreacherous dips his toe into the stakes waters in what seems to be a reasonable step up. Brushing and stalking ability both encourage. 7 - WESTERN VACATION didn't lack for late pace at Pocono last out, but was simply unable to find room after being buried up the far side. Give credit to his near misses in Grand Circuit company as a rookie. 3 - SWEET TRUTH won well at Pocono two back and chased evenly against winners last week. A closer stalking spot can help him hold for a minor in this kind group.

Race 2 - 2 Year Olds, Non-Winners 2 Races

4 - PADRE stayed with a quickening tempo in his M1 qualifier, and his speed is unmatched in this group. The addition of hopples seemed to help immensely. 1 - JACK FIRE worked into a no-match second in his lone qualifier, using a :28 2/5 closing split to take that position. He's proven he can get around three turns, and the pole can keep him close. 6 - CRICKET FASHION tired amid his pursuit in that same qualifier, and was just outdone by Jack Fire for that runner-up spot. Week-over-week improvement is a big plus; can share with continued progress.

Race 3 - Pennsylvania Stallion Series

4 - MANKAT dug in hard to repel pressure in his return effort a couple weeks ago, and his doing so in a N3L event gives him the class edge as far as everyone's most recent start is concerned. Speed and grit make him the one to beat. 1 - SUPER MAC never got involved last out, but picked up a couple minor cheques in tougher stakes company as a rookie. The pole can help him get back to a closer tracking spot. 7 - HEY RUN ME OVER was a very respectable second at 15-1 on Sunday, outdone only by his pocket rival, a very promising No Lou Zing. He responded well to pressure up the far side; consider for a minor at least.

Race 4 - Pennsylvania Stallion Series

4 - SAILBOAT HANOVER brushed boldly to a 1:51 second-out victory two weeks ago. His endurance has improved markedly from his rookie season, as has his ability to sustain uncovered pushes. 6 - LOU'S SWEETREVENGE sustained a first-over push at fives-on in his last after toiling from the pocket on debut. To me, that indicates improved fitness. Relief from PASS and Grand Circuit stakes (see last summer) can aid too. 3 - COMPLETE KAOS enjoyed some minor stakes success as a rookie, hitting the board in 6 of 13 last year. He figures to be stronger in his second start back after a bit of a flat debut into a fast mile.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - THE LUNCH PAIL drops a level on arrival after pressing and tiring in a fourth-level race at Yonkers a couple weeks ago. The switch to three turns should improve staying power, and a kinder trip can help him make the most of the step down. 3 - SHANE ADAM also drops a level, and he can benefit immensely from extreme post relief. Last out, a wide draw did him no favours at Pocono, and two back, he blasted for the pocket only to gap in traffic on the final turn. Easier do await. 5 - MR CENSI almost reached out of traffic at this level two back, and he passed tired foes from astern in a fourth-level test more recently. Solid minor option in the return to a competitive class. 8 - BEVANS CULLEN N rises after pressing and stalking his way to a pair of near misses at Yonkers, and 2 - JUMPING JAKE circled four-wide into a good third at this very level last week.

Race 6 - Pennsylvania Stallion Series

7 - GINGRAS BEACH gave way to pressure up the far side in his last after exerting to clear, yet still held third. Most everyone in the field is rising from N3L or softer company; he can keep building with even a slightly kinder journey. 3 - PADDY ALL DAY was a minor stakes player throughout his rookie season. Late regression in his lone 2020 qualifier isn't so much a concern given he was chasing in vain behind Papi Rob Hanover. He's proven he can stalk and close well, but how sharp will he be off the shelf? 6 - ROCKINMYDREAM closed powerfully to win two of his four career starts to date, both at Northfield. He can show up for a share here too if able to work into the flow.

Race 7 - Pennsylvania Sire Stakes

3 - PUT TO RIGHT circled three-wide and sprinted off at will to take his 3-year-old debut. While that 1:53 2/5 win was over maidens, it's worth noting his runner-up finishes from astern in Grand Circuit events last fall. He's capable. 4 - ROCKIN THE BLAZE cleared from post 8 before yielding and toiling on debut this season. This one did enjoy mild success on the PASS circuit as a rookie; expect something more resemblant of that form second out. 7 - THE GREEK FREAK turned in two good efforts to start his 3-year-old season, including a 1:50 3/5 lifetime best performance at Pocono last out. He had a few bright spots in open stakes assignments as a rookie; this group feels easier.

Race 8 - Pennsylvania Sire Stakes

6 - ALLYWAG HANOVER lifted off cover for a pair of solid wins to open his 3-year-old campaign. Likely Meadowlands Pace standout was a minor stakes player at 2 for Coleman, and he's developed beautifully over the extended break. 7 - LAKE CHARLES won the Stallion Series final and a Liberty Bell split last year, and his two races this season indicate similar strength and versatility. He can set or press the pace alike; solid roughie option. 5 - FORCE N FURY was a measured winner in the breeze in his seasonal debut. Last year's Kindergarten winner can press and close effectively; options abound for Dunn.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - THINKBIG DREAMBIG worked into an upper-stretch lead in his last at M1 before Somebaddude swept past to just nab him. He gets another crack at this level on arrival; strength demonstrated in tougher races is the big selling point for him. 4 - MIKE'S Z TAM drops a level after nearly wiring upper-level foes at Pocono last week. Traffic didn't help any at the Big M two back; relief all round makes him a player third out. 8 - IDEAL JIMMY has back class galore to draw from, but he needs clear sailing for best results. The 21-time winner was locked in during both his 7-year-old starts to date; a little space in this kinder group can aid in a big way.

Race 10 - Pennsylvania Sire Stakes

6 - FORTIFY is worth a chance on arrival from out west, following a gritty front-end win at Scioto which saw him stave off pressure in a :55 4/5 back half and a narrow miss at The Meadows after closing a ton of ground. While tougher await, the dual-eligible colt has proven he's amply fit. Minor placings in Grand Circuit events last year encourage as well. 2 - A POSITIVE HANOVER parried pressure at Pocono on arrival Sunday. Fast Toronto miles in June indicate fitness and versatility. 7 - ADRIANO HANOVER came out swinging as a rookie, but tailed off as the Sire Stakes season reached its end. His 3-year-old debut looked flat on paper, but it was behind Aflame Hanover, who enjoyed success in his sophomore campaign last year. Capable, for sure, but be wary of underlay potential here.

Race 11 - Pennsylvania Sire Stakes

2 - LATER DUDES didn't race at two, but has shown immediate promise since a pair of resounding Northfield wins to open his career this spring. Just a couple weeks ago, he chased to only miss by a length in the Star Destroyer at Hoosier. He's ramping up in a big way. 1 - MAC'S BIG BOY chased well out of traffic on Sunday after adding Lasix. Minor placings in open stakes last year noted. 7 - SEA OF LIFE pressed into a good second on debut a couple weeks ago. All through his rookie campaign, he chased into minors at healthy odds, including a runner-up finish in the Kindergarten final. Can share again today.

Race 12 - Pennsylvania Sire Stakes

7 - SEEYOU AT THEBEACH seeks a third straight win after demonstrating versatility and strength in recent Scioto outings. Minor stakes success at two isn't matched universally in this group. 2 - TEAEM BEST won at Mohawk two back, and he stayed on evenly behind the tough Allywag Hanover at M1 last week. Solid contender if close and clear. 4 - CAPTAIN GROOVY drew off for a pair of Meadowlands wins to start the season after winning 4 of 9 as a rookie. Late strength is a plus; value may take a hit.

Race 13 - Pennsylvania Stallion Series

1 - BARRAGE HANOVER won powerfully two back, and chased respectably last out after exerting early. The pole lands him close, and only one faced tougher in his most recent start. That one is 7 - JAHAN HANOVER, who pressed into a :27 4/5 third quarter and dug in to hold second against N4L types last out. He showed up for minors in some small stakes last year. 5 - PARTY WHIP had some trouble as a rookie, but seems to have improved markedly over the winter. He won his seasonal debut, and then battled gamely to narrow defeat in his first try against winners. He appears much stronger by all counts. Minor option.

Race 14 - Pennsylvania Stallion Series

2 - MONEYMAN HILL beat N5L foes from an earned pocket a couple weeks ago, and fared well on the Kentucky circuit as a rookie. He should be close to the action here without any trouble, and he stacks up among the strongest in the field according to the class ladder. 5 - QUIZZER drew off to a Meadows win on Saturday, and parried pressure three back. He needs to be directly involved from the outset for best results. 4 - MASTER CONRAD has consistently demonstrated stalking and closing ability through the spring and summer. Ability to cover a lot of ground in one shot can carry him into contention at a healthy price.