Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Friday 12/4

2020 Statistics (through Nov. 15 – 86 days)
Top Selections – Overall:
Win %: 450 for 1,194 (37.7%)
ITM: 847 for 1,194 (70.9%)
Win Dividends: $1,988.10 - $2 ROI: $1.67
Pick-4: 1,5,6/4,8/2,6,7/3,5 ($18)
Best Bet: General Ward (Race 2)
Spot Play: Mr Profeta (Race 12)

Race 1 - Claiming $10,000

7 - MYSTERY ISLAND lifted well into second last week, and has hit the board in his last seven. Veteran boasts far and away the best form in the field; likeable mid-price option. 5 - ROAR OF APPROVAL seeks to improve second out after toiling late amid a quickening pace. Midpack draw suits his preference for being near the action. 1 - REUBEN TUNE UPS passed tired foes from astern on the drop to this tag last week. Extreme post relief makes his staying power count for more, and he gains Todd McCarthy.

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Race 2 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

7 - GENERAL WARD looks for his fourth win in a row after taking his last two against similar from pacesetting and close tracking trips alike. Clearly capable; draw is main obstacle. 1 - LOU'S SWEETREVENGE has the benefit of the pole in his third start since returning, but was just nabbed at odds-on in a similar race last time out. Be particularly mindful of value. 4 - TAIL HOOK finished well to hit the board in four straight tries against similar or just tougher. There's not much speed to his inside, so he shouldn't have much trouble landing close to the action once again.

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Race 3 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

2 - KOMBUCHA invades from M1 after giving futile chase to Get Legs in two outings there. Pressing ability demonstrated two back encourages greatly. 1 - MANOFMANYLUVS had some breaking issues in Ohio this summer, and now debuts for Brubacker after a clean qualifier on Nov. 24. Variables abound; a flat line can help him boost exotics, especially from the pole. 7 - KHEDIVE earned every bit of a no-match second last week in his first start on Lasix. Clearer sailing can aid his cause all the more. Another solid value offering.

Race 4 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - DRAGON STRIKES reversed form last week at the lowest level and starts an upward trajectory today. The mile was powerful and almost completely dominant. Final quarters have improved steadily across last month. Appealing to continue the good work today. Good central key to the Pick-3. 2 - SCRUB HANOVER has also improved markedly in recent times and posted a good second-place finish last week. Drawn well to preferred racing style. Value play to share. Early speed appeals. 3 - MAJOR OFFENSE drops to the condition today off a good pair at a higher level for superb connections. Should perform strongly against these; will appreciate high speed to press into race. Mind value.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - MR CENSI closed in late off a stalking trip to win easily. Has some of the best raw speed of the group, appears to be getting better in late stages versus earlier in the fall. A consistent top-four finisher and reliable performer. Slim call. 3 - CAPTAIN MCKEE dropped to a level of better fit two weeks prior and responded well. Back in that original level after arriving from Woodstock. With miles under his belt locally and an extra week off, fit to fire fresh. Attractive to spark exotics. 7 - BAG PIPE MAJOR invades from Plainridge and features numerous miles that collected purse money. Level, productive speed in many miles. Prime beneficiary of any excessive early speed. 2 - TOM'S TWILIGHT drops slightly today. Enjoyed a good mile two starts prior on local arrival. 1 - BACKYARD VELTIC comes in from Freehold. Immense post relief noted; another useful addition on arrival.

Race 6 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - VAPOUR N missed from an earned pocket last week, but didn't lack for late pace in his pursuit to the line. This fourth-level group shapes up as a hair kinder. 5 - ROCK LIGHTS left for position, got locked in, and toiled late at Yonkers on the rise to this level on Saturday. In his two starts before that, he closed strongly and sustained wide pressure to just miss easier. Effectively splits the difference and gains Nap. 7 - LIVE LIKE A BOSS is the only horse dropping from fifth-level company, and he does so after rallying to hit the board at big odds. Can certainly contend; wide draw looms.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

5 - LYONS AMUSEMENTS almost held his ground at this level four back, and now is a beneficiary of post and class relief after being caught astern throughout last time. He's reunited with McCarthy, too. 1 - SUCHASENSEOFHUMOR finished evenly or better for minors in three straight at this level since arriving. Nap has every chance to get him involved from the pole. 6 - DEALMAKER has been no worse than fourth in his last four. Five back, he faded after forcing the pace through the middle half. Forgive that outing. Solid minor option.

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Race 8 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - ROCKIN MEDICINE invaded last Friday and overcame severe traffic by hooking three-wide at the eighth pole and surging into second. Similar await; any semblance of clearance can lift him the rest of the way. 8 - SURFER BEACH has been off for a month, but he was a powerful front-end winner in his last at Pocono. 7 - ALWAYS HOTSPEED toiled at Yonkers in his last two, but showed better chasing ability over three turns last month. A return to that form can put him in play here at a hefty price.

Race 9 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

6 - SHINING JEWELS has improved markedly since starting a campaign locally. Narrow call based on this autumn's overall reliability. Faces a tough assignment against a competitive lineup. 5 - MAJOR HOULIHAN closed strongly last week at this level and just missed. Another one who is much improved since arriving from out of state. Likeable spot; significant win chance. Weigh value. 2 - KEEP WATCHING loomed in her last several, and was much improved in her last pair. Good post for her racing style; attractive at medium-level odds to improve exotics.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

3 - YUPPER may be rising from bottom-level races, but he demonstrated improved staying power in his last two. Early positioning can help him strike at a huge price with similar closing kick. 5 - ROCK THE NITE left for the pocket and pressed through the far turn before toiling in the stretch at Yonkers last out. Slightly kinder await on arrival. 6 - OLLIE'S Z TAM is bound to attract attention on account of fast miles at M1, and rightfully so — he parried pressure to beat tougher six back and he fought gamely against similar two back. Beware underlay potential.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

2 - ALL CASHED OUT invades from Maryland after vaulting clear two back and saving third out of severe traffic more recently. He's pretty clearly ramping up; gains McCarthy on arrival. 5 - HALL IT OFF drew off boldly on arrival last week and took similar foes to task in doing so. Every chance to repeat, but past gait issues still concern mildly. Mind value. 7 - BOOM CITY only missed second by a length last week after being shuffled on the far turn. Clear sailing can aid this value prospect for exotics all the more. Gains Miller.

Race 12 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - MR PROFETA began trailing all and closed ground significantly to catch third at good odds. He's closed smartly his last several, and if he can get enough speed to chase, he's formidable today. Consider multiple speed scenarios inside. 7 - MCARDLES LIGHTNING has also demonstrated notable closing talents and has like final quarters of late to our top choice. Weigh the difference on the board. 5 - SIMPLE KINDA MAN ranged nearby in his second local start and wired his Philadelphia debut field. Fits in with these, variable talents can be chosen.

Race 13 - Non-Winners 1 Race

3 - I'LLALWAYSBEBACK is one of a host of contenders across today's card that have improved since arriving or returning to us. A fit at the level with two ITM miles and a reversal of all recent form. Strong consideration for key in doubles. 6 - WINNIE THE GOO must start from the outer post of the six-pack today, but qualified well at Rosecroft after a return from a difficult summer. Formidable if fresh. If able to return to 2019 form, she's going to be a tough one to leave off the tickets. Daughter of the notable Googoo Gaagaa. 4 - BYATHREAD HANOVER had to wrangle with a tough post draw last out and was able to briefly make an impression. Inclined to excuse given good performances at the level in early November. Better situation today to readily share.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

5 - POP'S ROMEO sustained his pursuit to protect a no-match second last week. Good gains through the far turn and that sustained pursuit through a quickening pace encourage. Morgan stays on. 2 - ALWAYS B MAGIC can benefit from post and class relief alike, and gains Nap. 6 - SPORTSKEEPER tired badly as the pace picked up with three-eighths to go last week, but he was used hard to secure the pocket in a blistering first quarter, too. I'm inclined to forgive that line.