Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Friday 12/11

2020 Statistics (through Nov. 15 – 86 days)
Top Selections – Overall:
Win %: 450 for 1,194 (37.7%) ITM: 847 for 1,194 (70.9%)
Win Dividends: $1,988.10 - $2 ROI: $1.67
Pick-4: 1,3,5/4,5,7/1,4,7/4 ($13.50)
Best Bet: Fabrice Hanover (Race 2)
Spot Play: Tail Hook (Race 4)

Race 1 - Claiming $10,000

6 - OFFICIAL DELIGHT struggled to get involved with tougher claimers in his last two local starts, but he was troubled by rearward dispatches on both occasions. Staying power in mid-level races in October is more indicative of ability. Easier await. 5 - ROAR OF APPROVAL gets another crack at this group after sustaining a four-wide push through the far turn and maintaining third in his last. Give him extra credit for the ground he had to cover; expect sharper third out. 2 - BAYONET was troubled by excess cover and a slow-ish start at M1 last out and tired after early exertion the week before. Returns to $10k company and draws cosily. A closer early spot can help him boost exotic value.

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Race 2 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

I really like 5 - FABRICE HANOVER in this spot, for a couple reasons: Three, four and five back, he sustained late gains off second- and third-over trips for minors against tougher; and most recently, he was used hard for the lead through the first four furlongs before fighting gamely and not giving way until mid-stretch. Class movement on arrival is essentially lateral, but the kinder draw should give him more oomph where it counts. 1 - JK MUSICMAN was a good third in three of his last four against tougher. Versatility noted in that stretch of mild success; pole on the step down is a sure aid, too. 6 - CAPTAIN NASH finds an easier group the compared to $20k claiming fields in which he found minor success when able to work into striking range. He nearly wired similar at Yonkers two back. Early positioning will tell much of the tale for this one.

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Race 3 - Claiming $10,000

3 - P-DRIVE HANOVER returns from Yonkers after toiling late in $12.5k events. Nap's back aboard; easier await on arrival. 4 - DRAGONOLOGY likewise drops in class after lacking in $20k company. Minor player in comparable conditioned events needs to land closer early on for best results. 1 - BUSBOY HANOVER was shuffled out of contention in his last, but chased OK two back and reached bottom-level foes four back. Pole keeps him close.

Race 4 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

2 - TAIL HOOK didn't fire last week, but he hit the board in four straight at this level leading up to that outing. Kinder foes await; can rebound. 4 - TERRITORY saved a no-match third after gapping the pocket up the far side last week. That outing represented improvement from recent struggles. Raw speed is ample. 5 - MOONLIGHT SHADOW hasn't threatened in recent weeks, but gains McCarthy after some time off. Closer stalking position can make him a minor player if fit.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

4 - MITCH MAGUIRE N hasn't been any better than ninth in his last five starts, but he drops again after working hard through the first six furlongs of each of his last two starts. Any relief for him in the early stages of this race can conceivably put him back on top. 6 - CAPTAIN DISOMMA was even but no threat against tougher foes last week after chasing at this level for third the start before. Reunited with Marcus; staying power noted. 5 - YANKEE OSBORNE debuts for Cassar after mustering a minor via an even trip at Saratoga in his last. Midpack draw yields tactical options.

Race 6 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

3 - THE DOUBLE DEUCE almost converted in her debut for Takter last week, but today has the benefit of that start under her harness. Expect sharper second out; potential as lone speed is considerable. 2 - SHINING JEWELS arrived from Iowa last month, and she hit the board in all four of her starts for Lebo to date. Give her credit for her chasing bid to save third last week from an earned pocket and traffic trouble. Similar await this solid stayer. 1 - KEEP WATCHING looks to make amends for a mid-race break over the slop last week. In prior outings, she stayed on OK for minors from close stalking trips. Pole keeps her near the action with ease.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - SWEET TRUTH tired in his last after being used for early position. Before that, he closed up pretty well but was too far out of contention. Easier foes await, and so does a kinder starting spot on arrival. 5 - ON ACCIDENT earned minors against tougher in four of his last five starts, and consistently shows even or improving finishes. That staying power should count for more on this step down. 3 - SOHO WALLSTREET A drops for the third straight week after chasing from the pocket and tiring in the slop at Yonkers in his last. Kinder draw and kinder foes can help him improve. Mind value owing to minor success with top-level types in October.

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Race 8 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - ITSONLYMONEYHONEY was mighty successful in Iowa and did well in three starts at Hoosier. At Yonkers, though, it was a different story altogether. Switch to three turns on arrival can alleviate the breaking issues that popped up at the Hilltop. 5 - ALL CASHED OUT arrived last week and chased to save third at 14-1 in a similar race. Value player boasts form and versatility, and retains McCarthy. 7 - BOOM CITY improved gradually to hit the board in his last two after chasing OK for third three back. Wide draw hinders some, but Tetrick's aboard. Another solid value option in all exotics.

Race 9 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

7 - BEACH BOOGIE bottoms out after just missing from the pocket last week. He pressed well to just miss three levels tougher three back; traffic woes and wide draws against tougher yet four and five back ultimately are what land the 26-time winner in this extremely kind spot. 4 - ACTON HANOVER exits the same race Beach Boogie does, and in fact set much of the pace in that one. Similarly, he had clear excuses for poor results in tougher groups of late. 1 - BAREFOOT BLUEJEANS invades from Rosecroft after pressing steadily into the lead at the eighth pole in his last. This group tends to be a little easier than or on par with local $10k types, and the pole can definitely sharpen him up some, too.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - THE FIRST STEP rises after parrying sustained pressure and sprinting off to win by nearly five lengths in his last. He's one of six in this field to step up from his last start, so this group isn't as tough as most fourth-level races. Stout form can carry. Lots to like. 6 - LIVE LIKE A BOSS worked hard to force a quickening pace in the third quarter last week before levelling off. More insulated trips have left the 9-time winner with more staying power; can strike from a kinder journey. 2 - MR CENSI seeks a third straight win, but has to rise again after earning a solid two-move score at evens last week. Kind draw can keep him close to the action — right where he likes to be. Reasonable minor call.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $4,100 Last 5 Starts

5 - GOLDEN SON adds Lasix today after a gutsy second-place effort out of post 8 two weeks ago. Similar await, but the midpack starting spot is enough to give him a little more edge in the final yards. 7 - SPLITSVILLE circled boldly into third in a $10k claimer at Dover last week, and accounted for himself amply three back as well. The 53-time winner moves laterally on arrival. 2 - MAJOR IMPACT rises after reaching from a cosy pocket last out. In his last try at this level, a lack of racing room in the middle stages was his biggest culprit. Minor option if close and clear.

Race 12 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - LOU'S SWEETREVENGE threw down a 4-1/2 length beatdown in the slop last week after a pair of runner-up finishes at the level. He'll have a little more inside competition for early position, but the strength of his win last week and improving form are more than enough to carry him. 3 - BETTOR OF THE WEST takes on older after breaking maiden in 1:53 3/5 last week. Stakes-placed gelding is likewise ramping up, but this class hike poses a new wrinkle. Mind value. 1 - ROCKIN MEDICINE was second in both local starts at the level, by way of pocket and more traffic-troubled journeys alike. Proven stayer should land close from the pole; he's hit the board in nearly half his career starts and he's been no worse than fourth this year since returning from a 13-1/2 month layoff.

Race 13 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - EVER AGAIN left hard for the pocket last week before tiring off the home turn. Today, he drops and draws inside. Can bounce. 3 - EFFRONTE A steps down after running into traffic trouble in his last. He wired similar with ease five back. 4 - DEALMAKER has been fourth or better in his last five outings, and showed mild closing ability in first-level races. A little bit of live flow can carry him into a minor on this step up at a healthy price.

Race 14 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

5 - ALYVIA DEO almost lasted on the lead in her return effort. Forgive her M1 outing two back on account of sustained exertion. She's proven herself capable with best effort. 2 - I AM THE STORM chased OK for third at 38-1 in the same race Alyvia Deo exits. Cosy draw can keep him close from the outset again. 7 - MEADOWBROOK CHIP looks to make amends for an uncharacteristic break last week, but previous lines show he's got enough staying power to at least share for a small piece at this level. Marcus' choice of three.