Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Friday 11/27

2020 Statistics (through Nov. 15 – 86 days)
Top Selections – Overall:
Win %: 450 for 1,194 (37.7%)
ITM: 847 for 1,194 (70.9%)
Win Dividends: $1,988.10 - $2 ROI: $1.67
Pick-4: 3,4,7/1,3/2,6/1,6,7 ($18)
Best Bet: Sweet Talkin Satin (Race 1)
Spot Play: Vapour N (Race 8)

Race 1 - Claiming $10,000

7 - SWEET TALKIN SATIN won three of his last four at this level, with his lone miss occurring after he pushed hard into a :55 2/5 half. Wide draw is of minimal concern - there's not much speed to his immediate inside. 3 - MYSTERY ISLAND has enjoyed good form of late and has demonstrated ability to sustain uncovered pressing bids. He rose to this level well last week, advancing steadily up the far side and sticking around to save third. 6 - HERE COMES SWIFTY overcame stalled flow and only missed second by three-quarters of a length last week - at 41-1, no less! Solid value inclusion in exotics if availed a kinder flow.

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Race 2 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

8 - CONTEXT pushed forward and opened up to defeat N2L foes at Yonkers. She's warming up pretty steadily, it should seem. Switch to three turns helps raw speed; longer run to the first corner alleviates wide draw. 2 - LAZER JET rode cover to just miss the tough Bang Bang Boinga last week, and he's hit the board in five of six at this level or tougher. Capable presser-stalker. 3 - HEAT WAVE HANOVER drew off steadily last Thursday to win second out. Similar await, but she's overshadowed in the raw speed department. Demand fair value.

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Race 3 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

8 - GOLDEN SON kept on well from the pocket in a third-level race last Friday after tougher foes proved too tough. He's rounding back into form, as recent staying efforts indicate. This class relief can surely refresh, and Marcus opts on over two others. 3 - COMMON PARLANCE closed ground steadily at big odds on the drop to this level last week. Easier draw can aid; gains Tetrick. 1 - HAMMER CREEK moves the other direction on the class ladder. While he seeks back-to-back wins and draws the pole, he moves into a tough-by-comparison second-level group.

Race 4 - F&M Non-Winners 1 Race

6 - KEEP WATCHING sustained a pretty good chase off the home turn to maintain third last time after overcoming a no-chance trip to save fifth the week before. Past lines indicate glimmers of ability, too. Raw speed suits. 7 - MAJOR HOULIHAN hit the board in four of her last five, including Freehold stakes events. She almost lasted on the point here last Wednesday. Be most wary of value. 3 - FLASH DEAL finished up well in her two Dover starts, but now takes on a tougher group. Class hike is a bit of a variable, but staying power is promising. Use confidently in exotics.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - MEADOWBRANCH RICKY didn't toil that badly after exerting to clear at M1 last week — traffic was more the issue the 16-time winner ran into. Moves laterally on return; pole keeps him sharp late in the mile. 6 - LORDY LORDY debuts for Tarantino and switches back to three turns. While winless on the year, he fared OK in minor stakes. Gains Tetrick. 5 - ODD BALL rises after fighting gamely to the end of his last second-level try. Can continue to improve third out. 3 - IZOH rose to this level last week and was even. Note he was competitive with far tougher earlier in the season. 8 - SWANIND FASTLANE invades from The Meadows, where she beat N5L foes as recently as September. Can factor in Hi-5 tickets with a return to summer form.

Race 6 - Non-Winners 1 Race

6 - DOMINIC DE VIE is as strong as any in this group. Barring a break amid his first-over push in the slop two back, he's hit the board in five of six. Versatility noted, too. 7 - VICENTI just missed at 11-1 from an earned pocket last out, and he's hit the board in three straight now against older. Rounding into form pretty clearly. 1 - CAPITAL T STORM retains Simon after progressing steadily up the far side and staying on for third in the same race Vicenti exits. Minor stakes success a plus.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - TWIN B SPEED DIAL was hemmed in pretty badly up the far side in his last, but gained in the stretch as soon as he found room. Easier await him today, and George Napolitano teams up with the 22-time winner this time. 4 - MR CENSI drops below his last winning level after likewise being pinned in and keeping even. He was a minor player with two levels above this one; clear sailing is a must. 3 - SOMEBEACH BARON invades from The Meadows, where he showed mixed results in recent tries. Tetrick opts on the respectable stayer in like conditioned events out west.

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Race 8 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - BELLOWS BINGE not only drops from high-level claimers on arrival, but he boasts as much versatility as any in this field has displayed of late. He can threaten from anywhere, and that counts for a lot in a race that's not particularly easy to project the pace of. 3 - VAPOUR N was outmatched by Southwind Ozzi last time out, but he stayed on really well from tracking trips in previous fifth-level tries. Perpetual overlay candidate can benefit from significant relief. He's my value play of the day. 5 - IN SPADES almost converted at this level at Yonkers on Saturday, but was reeled in by Gratian Hanover after absorbing heavy pressure up the far side. Reunited with Nap on his return.

Race 9 - Non-Winners 1 Race

6 - ISSA HORSE demonstrated improvement in recent weeks by way of more aggressive tactics. Gains Miller this time around; can strike. 2 - STAR SPEAKER broke early last time, but rebounded to save fifth and paced a :56 middle half to do so. Previous outings indicate ample staying power for a bigger share than 8-1 would otherwise indicate. 5 - MIKI U SO FINE returns after a three-month spell. There are still a lot of variables in play owing to that, but his 1:54 qualifier and early-season form indicate that he's got some ability. Fits and plays with his best; be wary of underlay potential off the shelf, though.

Race 10 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

1 - BOOM CITY stayed on respectably behind Baby Donut last week, and only missed by two lengths in his first try at this level - despite finishing seventh. More manageable foes await; pole keeps him close. 6 - I AM THE STORM never got involved last time, but chased well to hit the board both two and four back. Tetrick was aboard on both those occasions; they're reunited today. 7 - LIBERO HANOVER only missed by a length two back, and was even more recently despite being compromised by traffic. If clear, he can pose at least some threat.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

1 - CAJOLE HANOVER steps back to his last winning level, and he does so after finishing evenly or slightly better to earn small cheques in his last four against heftier company. The 10-year-old still has some grit, to be sure. Solid mid-price offering. 4 - KEYSTONE SERGEANT just missed out of mid-division on arrival from Pocono last week. Sustained late gains encourage and are nothing new for him; he finishes as well as any in this group. 8 - GRAPPLE HANOVER broke last time, but before that chased stoutly for minors in significantly tougher fields. Wide draw is his main obstacle; Tetrick can aid.

Race 12 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - GENERAL WARD seeks a third straight win after lifting late to reach in each of his last two. Last week, he cascaded to the lead after tracking an intensifying pace. 1 - ROCKIN MEDICINE flattened late after a wide bid in his last at M1, but by no means was lacking. Pole keeps him close; Marcus opts to remain on. 2 - TAIL HOOK hit the board in three straight races now. He lacked kick from an easy pocket in the General Ward race, but he did stay on better at Pocono twice before that. Can share with similar.

Race 13 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - MAJOR OFFENSE made two separate moves on the drop to this level and worked to save third after some mid-race adversity. Similar await; three foes step up from strong performances against easier. 5 - P L MUNSON is one of them, having won with the addition of Lasix. That said, he was all-out to maintain a diminishing lead at the end of that second-level race last Friday. 8 - DAAMERICANSKY exits high claimers at Pocono, where he fared well in September and October but has tailed off since. Wide draws and traffic trouble were the big culprits in his last two; can bounce if clear.

Race 14 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

1 - SPICEBOMB debuts for Garcia and gains the pole on arrival from M1. Nap opts on the 13-time winner. 3 - DEALMAKER was third in his last three starts at this level, all via slightly better than even chasing efforts. Form edge noted. 8 - SPORTSKEEPER toiled in his pursuit last week, but stayed on well for third against tougher both two and four back. Wide draw is his prime obstacle.