Harness: Will shoeless Kentucky results transfer to the Breeders Crown?

The results over the last two weeks at The Red Mile revealed much about the very nature of the Lexington, Kentucky, track that has been a home to the Grand Circuit. Horses of all gaits tend to perform at their peak when allowed to race on a track that seems to be forgiving to all ailments.

Look at this past Sunday's (Oct. 9) highlights, as not only was the Kentucky Futurity champion Rebuff racing sans shoes for the first time, but Tattersalls champion Pebble Beach was able to find his way to the winner's circle after a long absence as trainer Noel Daley let his sophomore son of Downbytheseaside prance barefoot to winner's circle.

For me there is little surprise in the changes made to these horses and the ultimate results. What does come to mind is what we may or may not expect to see when horses ship from Kentucky north and find their way onto surfaces far less forgiving than the mile oval with a red finish.

Yet Lexington's Grand Circuit is also quite different during these times, than let's say 10-15 years ago, and principally that's because of the budding Sire Stakes scene in states like Indiana and Ohio. It's an acknowledgement that times have shifted and with it the allure of Lexington is lost as horse people think more bottom-line and less about showing up at The Red Mile just to join the scenery.

That's not to say that the racing wasn't enjoyable for the last two weeks because in fact the six Grand Circuit racing days were very entertaining and at times provided some truly compelling performances. The racing provided a glimpse of what we can see as the Breeders Crown comes into view and champions are inevitably crowned.

It would seem the greatest question-mark divisions to date are the two 3-year-old male divisions, where the Red Mile champions had fallen out of favor over the last two months. Both Pebble Beach, the North America Cup winner, and Rebuff, the beaten favorite in this year's Hambletonian, had fallen from the ranks since August, and despite being in the hunt in Kentucky Championship races, did not distinguish themselves in a way that would captivate the betting public. That both raced shoeless at The Red Mile and are likely to be foot fully-clad when they race again at Woodbine Mohawk Park in the Breeders Crown, is not likely to inspire additional confidence betting-wise.

Perhaps lost in the Kentucky Futurity final accounting was the impressive effort put in by Slay in the bulky field of a dozen. Driver Joe Bongiorno deserves immense credit for accepting his fate somewhere past the quarter pole and not pushing the panic button when the horse he was following, favored Periculum, sprinted towards the top. Slay raced admirably going up without cover into the lane and was resilient, holding his ground through the entire homestretch and finishing sixth but still within three lengths of the winner at the wire. The son of Chapter Seven will return to Woodbine Mohawk Park, a track he's already conquered in the Canadian Trotting Classic (September 24), perhaps in the best shape of his life.

Cool Papa Bell (Chapter Seven) was mired with post nine in the bulky Futurity field and didn't have the luxury as he did in the Hambletonian of improving his position along the inside while others stacked up in the second lane on Sunday. Instead, driver Todd McCarthy had to pass a whole lot of horses on the far outside, and Cool Papa Bell obliged with a solid finish, giving trainer Jim Campbell another opportunity to shine brightly in a Breeders Crown.

Perhaps the best Breeders Crown confrontation could take place between a pair of Swedish-bred sophomore filly trotters should Jiggy Jog S and Joviality S repeat their performances from the Kentucky Futurity filly division in a few weeks. From a covering-more-distance-in-a-mile-race perspective, Joviality S had to manage a second-tier start that already put her more than a length behind those on the gate, as well as an overland journey that forced her three-wide before the field hit the homestretch. That said, it would be negligent if we didn't give Jiggy Jog S and driver Dexter Dunn full credit for a spectacular performance, as she became one of few members of the 1:50 club for trotters with the victory. Sarah Svanstedt noted that Jiggy Jog S can be "temperamental," but it seems like Dunn has a way with fillies and has kept her to task a majority of the times since he picked up the drive in late May.

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While both Jiggy Jog S and Joviality S raced against the boys in the Hambletonian, Fashion Schooner was able to capture the Hambletonian Oaks for trainer Jim Campbell. Campbell has carefully mapped out the season for Fashion Schooner, who won the Moni Maker at Harrah's Hoosier Park on September 23 but has not raced since. Fashion Schooner has won eight of her 11 starts this year and most definitely belongs in the conversation for divisional honors.

While Allywag Hanover's win in the Allerage was the talk of the day from a speed standpoint, I felt that the effort put forth by Niki Hill, making just her fourth start of the season in the Glen Garnsey Memorial, was the day's finest individual performance. Niki Hill was used to get the front as rival Sea Silk made her work before clearing. The pace was lively to the half over a track that didn't appear overly fast. When Max Contract and driver Andy Miller moved on Niki Hill with high speed and a ton of purpose in the third quarter, it looked as if the fast-closing daughter of Huntsville was going to roll by Niki Hill and secure the victory. Niki Hill, with Dunn quite calm in the sulky, shifted gears in early stretch and quickly dispelled any thought Miller or Max Contract had of springing the upset. Instead, it was a 26 1/5 final quarter that signified Niki Hill is back to the level of greatness she reached last fall. Trainer Chris Ryder seemed relieved that the long journey back for his filly had finally put her in the winner's circle on consecutive weeks at The Red Mile. In addition to recovering from a cut she suffered in May, Ryder suggested in his post-race interview that they have been dealing with foot issues as well with the filly who went over the $1 million mark in career earnings with the Garnsey victory.

Lexington in the fall is also the spot where breeders and buyers meet to declare their love for the next crop of trotters and pacers hopeful to race in 2023. The results speak for themselves, as buyers looking for any sort of quality were forced to spend more than they have had in the past. Clearly the boost is a combination of optimism and realism. The optimism exists each year as buyers hope to find racing champions. The realists are breeders that are buoyed by dual-bred horses that will share in even greater purses next year in the Bluegrass State.

When the product you are producing suddenly has expanded earning potential, there is only one direction for prices to go.