Harness: Which stallions will upset the balance of the yearling market?

A unique combination of returning, budding and potential future stars could impact the balance of the yearling market as bidders converge on the Fasig-Tipton Sales Pavilion for the Lexington Selected Yearling Sale.

To name a few, stallions like Muscle Hill, Father Patrick and Chapter Seven on the trotting side and Captaintreacherous, Always B Miki and Sweet Lou on the pacing end should continue to produce strong numbers at the sale. New trotting players like Tactical Landing, Crazy Wow and International Moni will certainly make some noise, as could first-crop pacers Stay Hungry, Lazarus and Boston Red Rocks.

Perhaps most interesting when considering market impact are last year's debuting stallions who have displayed talent on the track and in some cases dominated. Walner and Downbytheseaside, and to a lesser extent Huntsville, have the opportunity to change the market at the top end of the pacing and trotting spectrum during the Lexington sale.

Starting with Walner, King Of The North and Venerable have dominated the 2-year-old trotting scene by capturing every major Grand Circuit stake in the division. Consider that they have earned more than the next FOUR highest 2-year-olds combined.

"Usually there is a little give and take," said co-sales manager Dave Reid. "I think the success of Walner, I'm biased because I'm the syndicate manager, the start that he has gotten off to with his first crop of 2-year-olds has been extraordinary. I think most people you talk to will agree with that statement."

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Muscle Hill led all trotting stallions at Lexington in 2020 by far with a $132,510 average from 49 horses sold. Walner checked in second at $88,218 for 55 yearlings. This year both horses will see a slight reduction in total yearlings with Muscle Hill coming in at 44 and Walner 48.

That Walner will sell more yearlings (18 vs. 16) than Muscle Hill on opening night could be telling of the gap closing rapidly in price. Last year eight more Muscle Hill yearlings were offered than Walner.

"This year, I'd be shocked if all of his colts and fillies don't sell well," said David McDuffee, co-owner of the top-earning Walner in 2021, Venerable. "Muscle Hill has been on top for a long time and he's still a good stallion, but he's got competition now."

"Blending in Walner's success with the Muscle Hills of the world from the trotting point of view, the first crop of Tactical Landing, the Father Patricks, Cantab Halls and Chapter Sevens, it just all goes into the catalog being exceptionable," said Reid. "You also have Bar Hopping and Southwind Frank. They don't have as big of a crop but they've done well. I think we have very good diversity and obviously Walner's success is going to impact that."

Indeed, stallions like Bar Hopping and Father Patrick in particular could be two who are ready to jump to the next level. Bar Hopping, who has 16 slated to sell in Lexington, has seen great success over the last two years with 3-year-olds In Range ($702,831), Bella Bellini ($596,213) and Johan Palema ($541,528) and 2-year-olds like S I P ($258,932). Meanwhile, Father Patrick, sire of Amigo Volo ($1,574,164) and Greenshoe ($1,353,772) among 33 six-figure winners on his résumé, could be the value of the sale according to 2020 top buyer Nancy Takter.

"My clients will follow the patterns too, like now everybody wants a Walner, but that means you can bargain-shop better with a Muscle Hill or Father Patrick," said Nancy Takter. "The ones that are going to sell this year are from the best mares Father Patrick has seen. I think you can actually make some good bargain buys with his yearlings if you have enough patience for them. They can be a little difficult, but if you come across the right individual, they are very fast. Obviously Greenshoe was very fast. This year Mon Cheval is a good horse as well."

The sale features a whopping 60 yearlings from Father Patrick including eight on opening night and 18 in the second session. The group includes the full brother to Trotter of the Year Greenshoe, HIP 97 The Big Valley.

While Walner will have a major impact immediately on the first night, those waiting to see how Downbytheseaside's extremely successful first crop, one that leads in average earnings per foal and total earnings, will have to wait until Saturday. As in the past with Ohio and Indiana-breds, all of Downbytheseaside's 23 yearlings will sell on the fifth and final night of the sale.

Downbytheseaside averaged $61,192 for 26 yearlings in 2020 and that number could see a significant boost if the Ohio Selected Jug Sale is an early indicator. The son of Somebeachsomewhere saw 37 of his yearlings sold for just over $40,000 in 2020. One year later, 43 sold for $53,674, an increase of 34%. A similar bump in Lexington would increase Downbytheseaside's average over $82,000 and have him inching in on Captaintreacherous as the pacing leader. That fact has buyers like trainer Brian Brown and owner Joe Sbrocco worried.

"I don't know if we are going to have to pay higher prices. I think six of them brought $100,000 and one of them $200,000 last year. I don't know if that is going to be much higher," said Brian Brown about the top end. "I think the median, the horses who last year brought $20,000 to $30,000 could be $40,000 to $60,000 this year. I have some owners that can only spend so much. Will I be able to buy a Downbytheseaside?"

"I'm afraid that the Downbytheseaside's are going to bring more money than they are worth this year. I'd like to get a couple more but I'm not sure what to do here," said Joe Sbrocco.

Despite the statistical numbers and the fact that Downbytheseaside is the sire of a pair of undefeated 2-year-olds in Sea Silk and Gulf Shores, and one of the fastest of 2021 in Pebble Beach, there are still those who don't view him as a Grand Circuit sire just yet.

"I think Downbytheseaside and Huntsville are still more regional to Ohio and New York. They are not Grand Circuit sires yet," said owner/breeder Myron Bell. "They've done well but perhaps didn't get the best mares. In 2024 we will probably see better-bred horses from them."

Nancy Takter actually made the trip to the Ohio Selected Jug Sale this year to purchase a pair of Downbytheseasides, but don't expect her to be bidding on the fifth night for another of his yearlings at Lexington.

"Downbytheseaside has had a good year, both on the colt and the filly side. I went there to buy the filly [Aqueduct, $152,000] because I had gone to Diamond Creek [Farm] and looked at yearlings. My father trained the dam Gettingreadytoroll. She's dual eligible to Kentucky and Ohio. She was a beautiful individual, so I went all the way to Ohio to buy her and while I was there, I bought the colt [Ants Marching, $125,000]. His family is Tall Dark Stranger and he's a nice-looking individual. He's not dual-eligible, so I'm hoping he'll be good on the Grand Circuit.

"I try to buy horses that I think can be Grand Circuit individuals and I thought those horses have the pedigree, confirmation and the looks to be Grand Circuit horses. I'm not really interested in any regional programs to be honest," continued Takter when asked if she would be buying more Downbytheseasides at Lexington.

Just because Downbytheseaside has taken off on the track that doesn't mean a horse like Captaintreacherous is going to be easily pushed off his mantle. "The Captain" has 43 yearlings selling during the first two sessions, up 14 from 2020.

"I think Captaintreacherous will be very well-received in his fifth crop and his best years are ahead of him because of Somebeachsomewhere's passing," said Myron Bell.

There is also a case to be made for Sweet Lou as a market mover. His first crop produced Warrawee Ubeaut ($1,837,213), his second was led by No Lou Zing ($551,927) and recent third-crop foal Lou's Pearlman ($709,326) is emerging as a potential star after his Little Brown Jug win. Including some mentioned previously, Sweet Lou has already produced three sub 1:48 winners in his short stallion career, and some say his best is yet to come.

"Take a horse like Sweet Lou, he probably has a stronger book of mares this year," said Dave Reid. "Horses like Captain are probably equivalent. The third or fourth year, generally the sire's book is a little softer, but sometimes performance on the racetrack will trump that. It is not an exact science.

"For the higher marquee stallions, yes the first crop typically has the best mares and the third would be the weakest since everyone is waiting for results. In the case of Sweet Lou, he has a tremendous book of mares this year. That would be a result of his first crop and horses like Warrawee Ubeaut. When you get to the third or fourth year, they are reactive to how they are performing on the racetrack."

Always B Miki will see 52 yearlings from his third crop sell at Lexington and while he has seen good success with Perfect Sting ($1,349,397) leading the way, his stock certainly saw a boost at the right time with his undefeated 2-year-olds capturing major stakes at Woodbine Mohawk Park. On September 25, Monte Miki charged past the field in the Metro and Niki Hill displayed true determination winning the She's A Great Lady.

Regardless of which stallions move the market at Lexington, it is clear that there is major potential for a shakeup in 2021, especially considering the new Sire Stakes system expected to take hold in Kentucky. With $80,000 legs and $400,000 finals for each division, it is sure to lure buyers to dual-eligible stallions.

"Kentucky was dead in the water a few years ago. It is probably going to be far and away the best Sire Stakes program," said David McDuffee. "It is wonderful to see what they've done down there. It is going to make people think twice when they look at a pedigree page and see that the horse was bred in Kentucky. You are going to have to pay more money for that, there is no question about it now."

An excellent point made by Nancy Takter was that it could be premature to crown any horse as the next best thing or a dud too quickly.

"People get it in their heads what they think are the hot horses to buy," said Takter. "Realistically, just because a horse has a good year or a bad year doesn't mean that it won't be different next year. Muscles Yankee was terrible in his first year at stud and nobody wanted him. He's impacted the sport more than many horses have as stallions, so you have to take things with a grain of salt."

The opening night fireworks will begin to fly just past 7:00 P.M. on October 5 and by the time the hammer strikes the pad for HIP 899 on October 9 we'll have a better idea of which horses were indeed market-changers. Will it be Walner or Downbytheseaside? The buyers will decide!