Harness: Test Of Faith or Niki Hill for Horse of the Year?
The ballots are out and while the votes will be tabulated by mid-December, the announcement of the highly-anticipated 2021 Horse of the Year winner won't be known until February 20 at the Dan Patch Awards banquet.
Certainly some people will make rogue votes for other horses, but Horse of the Year is ultimately a match-up between two fillies -- Test Of Faith and Niki Hill.
Very little separates the pair of pacing fillies and of course the connections of each feels strongly that their charge deserves the recognition.
"I think she deserves it," said trainer Brett Pelling about his Test Of Faith. "Her win/loss record is impeccable and she has never put in a bad run. Her first race at Saratoga was awesome and her last one in the Breeders Crown was awesome. If she doesn't deserve it for the record she has this year, no 3-year-old filly really deserves it."
"All they can do is win," said trainer Chris Ryder about his 2-year-old beating out the 3-year-old Test Of Faith. "[Niki Hill] hasn't lost a final. There is no other horse racing that has won all of their finals."
The tale of the tape breaks down to a virtual dead-heat in many ways. Win percentage and average earnings per start favor Niki Hill. Total earnings and stakes wins favor Test of Faith. There is no comparison on time considering the age difference though it is worth noting that neither was the fastest in their division.
| Test Of Faith | Niki Hill | |
| Record | 16-14-2-0 | 10-9-1-0 |
| Win % | 87% | 90% |
| Earnings | $1,069,739 | $904,557 |
| Avg. $ per start | $66,859 | $90,456 |
| Best Time | 1:48 3/5 | 1:50 2/5 |
| Stakes wins | 6 | 5 |
| $200K+ wins | 4 | 4 |
A case can be made that both Test Of Faith and Niki Hill were both one bad-luck win away from being a sure-fire Horse of the Year winner. Test Of Faith lost the Jugette by a half-length after sitting behind very slow fractions and Niki Hill lost her Breeders Crown elimination after being raced somewhat conservatively from an outside post. Of course if Test Of Faith won the Jugette and Niki Hill went undefeated we would be right back in the same situation that voters will have to untangle in the coming weeks.
One major sticking point for some voters is whether 2-year-olds do enough to win Horse of the Year. JK She'salady was undefeated in 2014 and won the award, but the previous freshman winner was Niatross in 1979! Clearly voters have a bias against 2-year-olds.
"Which horse would you rather have?" replied Ryder when asked if a 2-year-old should be treated the same as a 3-year-old in Dan Patch voting. "I don't want to take anything away from Test Of Faith; she's had a great year. I'm not going to criticize her. I'll just stick to my claim that my horse has never lost a final."
"Niki Hill is amazing, but I believe that they have their time," said Pelling on the competition. "Niki Hill is going to be 3 next year and then she can get out there and do it. I just think the older horses, I'm not saying they deserve it more, but they are a little more rough-and-tumble. They have a lot more starts and have been to a lot more tracks. I think they do more to earn the accolades that they do."
The best news is that regardless of which horse takes home the Horse of the Year title, we'll be able to enjoy them again in 2022.
We already know what Test Of Faith is capable of after compiling an astonishing 22 wins in 25 starts and who knows whether she takes another step forward as a 4-year-old. As the quality around her gets better against older mares, can she threaten Shartin's 1:46 4/5 world record?
Niki Hill's future stardom is a bit more unclear simply because some horses don't step up to the next level from ages 2 to 3. As of November 2021, the daughter of Always B Miki looks like she could be a superstar and Ryder isn't going to rush her back to the races next year.
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"I think next year will be a different year and we'll have more challenges," admitted Ryder. "I'd like to bring her back not too early and try to do what we did this year, have her ready for these final races.
"She's got a big frame but doesn't carry a lot of weight. I think as she gets older there is every reason to think she'll get better and better."
If Niki Hill were to win Horse of the Year it would be the first such title for Chris Ryder, though the trainer has seen a number of his horses win divisional honors and finished second in 2020 for the top award with Party Girl Hill.
"I'm not going to do that," said Ryder when asked to compare last year's 3-year-old champion Party Girl Hill to Niki Hill. "They are different horses. Party Girl might've been quicker than her but we'll see how quick she is next year."
Pelling on the other hand trained Rocknroll Hanover to a Horse of the Year season in 2005.
Pelling is also in the running for Trainer of the Year with Nifty Norman and Ake Svanstedt. Through November 29 his stats are arcade-like, with a 31.8% win rate, a 63.1% in-the-money record and average earnings of $13,746 per starter. Norman's totals come in at 21.2%, 50.2% and $9,387. Ake Svanstedt sits at 20%, 47.8% and $12,365.
Pelling also has a chance to win three Dan Patch awards with When Dovescry and Allywag Hanover in contention along with Test Of Faith.
"We've had an amazing year," said Pelling. "I couldn't ask for anything more. To do what we've done in 300 starts, the stable and everyone at the barn has done a great job."
The Horse of the Year decision, along with that of Manchego/Atlanta/When Dovescry and King Of The North/Fast As The Wind/Duly Resolved/Rebuff, are now in the hands of the voters. It is up to each individual to weigh the facts, evaluate each horses' on-track performances and come to an informed decision. May the best horses win!