The news of the moment is that Dexter Dunn elected to stick with Brandon Blvd and pass up on the drive behind Odds On Mr Mamba in their North America Cup elimination on Saturday at Woodbine Mohawk Park. Social media was abuzz with comments like "What was he thinking?" or "That decision really says a lot" and maybe they have a point, or maybe not. With all due respect to Odds On Mr Mamba as the fastest 2-year-old in history on the power of his 1:47 4/5 win at Harrah's Hoosier Park last year, has he really separated himself from Brandon Blvd in 2025 or 2026 to say which is the better horse? And that is only the horsepower issue. There are other aspects at play with respect to Dunn's decision. He is certainly going to have more opportunity on the Grand Circuit with trainer Andrew Harris than for the Melanie Wrenn stable.  At this point we don't know whether Dunn has made the right decision or not. Even he doesn't know for sure whether it was the correct decision. In the end it may be the wrong decision for the short-term but the correct one long-term, or vice versa. Consider that there is a long list of drivers who made the wrong call in the moment in some of the biggest races in the sport. Which brings us to an interesting topic: Do most handicappers place too much weight on driver choices? There are many potential angles when it comes to handicapping a harness race. Some people focus heavily on pure speed while others look at trips or class, but there is no stronger odds-manipulator than change. Change can refer to the new use of medication like Lasix, the addition or removal of equipment, or a horse moving to a new trainer. All are viable angles that have the potential to produce improved results. Then you have driver changes, which frankly are the most overhyped and overbet approach to handicapping. You may be confused and I know my younger self would be perplexed by the thought that driver changes aren't a major angle to be considered. After all, I made plenty of cash with the first-time Walter Case Jr. angle at Yonkers Raceway in the 1990s. But to be fair, many of those winners came at a short price because everyone was on board, Case was simply more talented than the competition in most cases, and perhaps just more willing to do whatever it takes to win. Don't get me wrong, driver changes can be a vital angle to consider, but switching to a much-higher percentage pilot often comes at a short price. The other issue is that the difference between a top driver and a mid-level one in an overnight race is often not as great as the earnings or win percentage statistics would have you believe. Then there are a number of other issues behind the scenes that you don't even realize are factors. ► Sign up for our FREE DRF Harness Digest Newsletter Oops, I forgot Did you ever mean to do something at work but got tied up with other tasks and missed the deadline? Often enough it is a loose deadline and you can still address the situation. If you are a driver and forget to call the Judges before the cutoff time, then you are subject to their discretion. Instead of driving the favorite, maybe you are now on a longshot. This happens much more often than you would think. Drivers have families and other things on their mind that sometimes get in the way of making these decisions. So the next time you think that a top catch-driver made a key decision to steer a horse, consider that they may not have made the decision at all. Wrong horse Did you ever stop to consider that the driver picked the wrong horse by accident? While this doesn't happen as much as forgetting to call in, I've definitely heard from drivers that they confused two horses that a trainer had on a card and picked the wrong one. Wasn't their decision I know of one former top driver who didn't even choose his own horses and instead had someone he trusted handle it. So here you are putting your faith in the driver to make the best decision based on how the horse felt and they aren't even making the call. Stable loyalty Many of the decisions made by drivers are with the future in mind. Rather than taking the best horse to win today, they could be looking at a race down the road or an opportunity to build a relationship so they can drive more for a stable at a later date. All of the above reasons - along with the reality that some drivers are bad handicappers - are why I handicap most races prior to getting the driver changes and put very little weight into the each person's choice. Think about it, if you are playing the Meadowlands, does it really matter if you have Tim Tetrick or Yannick Gingras? In most cases I would say no. Pivoting back to Dunn's North America Cup choice for a second, even the morning-line oddsmaker had trouble deciding between the pair, making Brandon Blvd 3-1 and Odds On Mr Mamba 7-2. For what it's worth, Beau Jangles is the 4-5 early choice, so maybe Dunn's decision was based on who will finish second in the North America Cup. Then again, the morning line is less important than driver choice in the overall spectrum of handicapping. The most interesting and lucrative driver change scenario, which rarely gets attention, is the second time a new driver takes the assignment. Everyone is often on board in start one hoping for an instant turnaround. When it doesn't occur, the bandwagon thins out dramatically. What people are missing is something I call the Avatar effect. Let me explain. In the movie "Avatar," the term Tsaheylu is used to describe the connection between the Na'vi and a banshee. It is basically a neural bond that allows the two to seamlessly communicate with each other. While there is no physical connection between driver and horse, there can often be a "feeling out" start where a driver will get a feel for the equine. The result could be a patient steer in start one and a more aggressive try the next time around. You'll see this quite often when a driver takes over a young or a dull horse. While there is no denying that the driver is a key component in any winning equation, in most cases it ranks near the bottom of my "angles" list. Choosing the horse that has the best chance of winning at the best possible price - almost regardless of driver - is a much better formula for winning consistently.