Harness: Previewing the 3-year-old pacing division

We are six to eight weeks from seeing many of the best 2-year-old pacers from 2018 return to the track and more than three months removed from their last appearance. Absence may make the heart grow fonder, but it is more likely that you have forgotten the key horses that will battle week-in and week-out in 2019 for supremacy in races like the North America Cup, Meadowlands Pace, Jugette and Breeders Crown.

As is customary and because I’ve developed a hard enough skin over the years to withstand the “how can you leave my horse off the list?” or “why is my horse so far down the list?” complaints, I present below my Top 20 3-year-old pacers for this year.

There were no scientific methods or algorithm computations used in the creation of the list. It is simply one man’s opinion based on 2018 accomplishments and visual observations. The rankings, which I loosely based on prospective earnings potential (Warrawee Ubeaut is less likely to out-earn the top two or three colts, for example) are not quite as important as the fact that the names simply appear on the list.

I’m sure many people will disagree with the order or find fault in my logic (or lack thereof). To those people, I invite you to reach out and provide your perspective. Email me at dgiwner@drf.com and speak your mind. Maybe I missed something. Maybe you have a strong opinion that deserves consideration. Either way, I’m curious enough to want to hear your thoughts.

Without further delay, below is my Top 20 with comments from the connections of a few of the top horses and select others.

1 – Captain Crunch

He won the Breeders Crown and Governors Cup last year and clearly stands as the top dog going into 2019. Did I mention he also led all colts in earnings and posted the co-fastest mile for that division at 1:49 1/5? He’ll have to prove this year that he can face pressure on the front and still dig in for a victory, but there is no reason to believe he won’t add that dimension to his game.

“He’s always been a good-sized horse, but he filled out quite a bit,” said trainer Nancy Johansson. “He just has this shine to him. He would catch anybody’s eye when he’s out on the track.”

2 – Workin Ona Mystery

Was perfect in five starts heading into the Breeders Crown last year and just never seemed comfortable during that mile. While a late August start to his year probably cost him a big season in terms of earnings, he did show what he is capable of by doing the heavy lifting in a 1:49 3/5 International Stallion Stakes win at the Red Mile. Ironically, trainer Brian Brown said that while the horse was perfect the week prior in the Bluegrass winning in 1:50 3/5, he was not himself leading up to the Stallion Stakes. That led to a shoeing change that the trainer said helped make him a little better.

“It wasn’t that he was bad-gaited, but he just wasn’t smooth and wasn’t himself,” said Brown of Workin Ona Mystery in his sub-1:50 win at the Red Mile.

As far as the failure of the horse to fire in the Breeders Crown, Brown revealed that Workin Ona Mystery bled “pretty bad” that night. Apparently, Pennsylvania rules prohibited the use of Lasix for 2-year-olds.

Considering how dynamic Workin Ona Mystery was on the track despite some issues, one has to wonder how good he can be if in perfect shape as a 3-year-old.

3 – Proof

He never really wowed me as a 2-year-old but did show up with a solid effort in every start. He also displayed great versatility. The base is there for him to be one of the best in the sport.

“Proof grew some (over the winter) and has grown into a real good-looking, slick horse. He’s gained weight and looks pretty good,” said trainer Brian Brown.

4 – Warrawee Ubeaut

She became the fastest 2-year-old pacer in history with a 1:48 3/5 win at the Red Mile, but there were also a couple of races where she couldn’t quite get the job done. When you consider some of the talent she’ll face in 2019, she’ll have to be spectacular to dominate.

5 – Stag Party

He certainly displayed some big performances in 2018, but he also made a break back in July and lost a Ontario Sire Stakes race in October he rightfully should have won easily even on his ‘B’ game. The talent is there, no doubt, but I’m just not convinced he is the best just yet.

6 – Tall Drink Hanover

I’m not so sure she possessed the same dynamic speed as Warrawee Ubeaut last year but she did beat her twice in 2018. Something tells me she is going to be a tough customer this year.

7 – Hurrikane Emperor

You can’t teach speed and like his dad Hurrikane Kingcole, who once paced 1:18 2/5 to three-quarters at The Meadowlands, this guy has it. His 1:49 3/5 win at the Red Mile in September, before the track tends to get crazy-fast for the Grand Circuit, sticks out in a big way. I’m excited to see how fast this guy really can go.

“He filled out awesome and his easy season was a true blessing,” said trainer John McDermott about the colt sticking to Sire Stakes and ending his year on October 6. “He is the most professional horse I’ve ever trained and he does everything perfectly.”

8 – Captain Ahab

Captaintreacherous-sired colt went into the Metro final perfect in seven starts and laid an egg as the odds-on favorite. He followed up the disappointment with a fourth-place finish at the Red Mile and didn’t race again. According to co-owner Myron Bell, there was a logical reason for the tail-off.

“He bled in the Metro. We put him on Lasix in Kentucky after skipping the first week,” said Bell. “We put him away the first week of October and he had three months at Brittany (Farms). He grew about another hand and he’s about 16 hands now. He’s a special animal and our best colt on paper.”

9 – Captain Trevor

Was kept on mile tracks until the Breeders Crown and looked fine winning his elimination, but never seemed quite right on the sloppy surface in the final. He displayed the necessary speed as a 2-year-old to believe that with continued growth over the winter, he could step up.

“He’s coming back very good. He’s been in about 2:12. He won’t be qualifying until about May 1,” said co-owner Myron Bell, who also commented on the Breeders Crown loss. “He was sick. He came first-over and was in a bad spot. He is more of a trip horse than a horse who cuts the mile. He’s very good leaving and sitting. That’s how I read him. Of course he can improve, but he is a very nice horse.”

10 – No Mas Amor

Made a name for himself by winning in 1:49 1/5 at the Red Mile at 114-1 and followed it up with a Breeders Crown elimination win. He was a credible fourth in the Crown final as well. It is hard to say if his big races were anomalies or the norm. Time will tell.

11 – Prescient Beauty

Beat Warrawee Ubeaut in the Three Diamonds and was a game third in the Breeders Crown. Daughter of Art Major is another very talented pacing filly in a group loaded with ability.

12 – Zero Tolerance

She never finished off the board in 13 starts and despite lacking a signature win or an ultra-fast career mark, she was always a force to be reckoned with against this tough group of fillies.

13 – Mangogh

He is a son of Western Ideal who had a solid initial campaign on the track. While his performance and record don’t stick out, he was the victim of some bad trips and poor luck.

14 – Air Force Hanover

Raced well in every start except the Breeders Crown final. The pure speed is definitely there if he matures.

“He was a June foal, so he probably had the most growing to do, but he may be the biggest of the three now and stoutest of the other two,” said trainer Brian Brown comparing Air Force Hanover to Workin Ona Mystery and Proof. “Lasix will help him a lot, too.”

15 – Love Me Some Lou

He doesn’t have the résumé of some of the others but don’t let that fool you. In July he won at Harrah’s Philadelphia in 1:50 4/5, missing the track record set in 2009 (Rock N Roll Heaven) by just one-fifth of a second.

16 – Blood Money

He certainly made a good living as a 2-year-old but never really shined as the best of the group. Even in his one big win in the Matron, things set up nicely for him coming first-over versus a tired leader. Of course, with a bit of improvement he’d be as good as any.

17 – Shake That House

He put in some very nice performances in 2018 but didn’t walk away with any open stakes wins. His earning power is also limited because he won’t be competing in the Pace at The Meadowlands.

18 – Reigning Deo

New York Sire Stakes champion held his own in Grand Circuit stakes late in the season with three checks and displaying a good closing kick. Maybe he can be the exceptional son Rock N Roll Heaven has been missing?

19 – Beautyonthebeach

Daughter of Somebeachsomewhere is a very good filly who faced a group of killers in 2018. Can she close the gap on her peers this year?

20 – Melodies Major

He was the king of the New York Sire Stakes until a tough trip led to a second-place finish in the final. It’s hard to say how good he is because he never left his home state.

Finally, some of the horses I considered but left off the list: Queen Of The Pride, Bronx Seelster, Semi Tough, Bettor’s Wish, De Los Cielos Deo, Sugar Factory, Hickfromfrenchlick, Waterway, Lyons Night Hawk, Mac’s Power, U S Captain, Shipshape, Magic Joe Lindy, St Somewhere, Glorious Virgin.