Harness: Numbers say that Hambletonian is better without two heats

I have long stated that harness racing needs bettors more than it needs fans. The simple reason is that bettors are fans already, while fans have to be turned into bettors, which has proven to be a difficult task.

The Hambletonian this year was a great spectacle. The first elimination was a wildly fast pace with two horses separating themselves from the field featuring a filly as the one establishing the fast fractions. The second elimination could only be described as pure chaos, including one of the more bizarre drives (Six Pack) we will ever see. Of course the Hambletonian Final was a great moment, as the filly Atlanta held on and beat the boys. Again, all of this was a lot of fun to watch. But for bettors, the results show that heat racing is simply not what they want to see, or wager on.

The last year the Hambletonian was raced with eliminations the prior week was 2012. In that year, wagering on the Hambletonian Final far surpassed the wagering this year as shown below:

Pools - 2012 Pools - 2018

Win/Place/Show: $316,827 $145,020

Exacta: $256,072 $97,396

Trifecta: $175,716 $70,373

Superfecta: $88,322 $37,846

Pick 4: $140,416 $55,321

Total Handle: $977,353 $405,956

There was $571,397 more money bet on the Hambletonian Final in 2012 (the last year of the eliminations being the week before) than in 2018. Now, this could be acceptable (maybe) if by contesting the Hambletonian eliminations on the same day, the handle on those race increased enough to offset the losses in the final. So, let’s check those results.

Pools – 2012 Pools – 2018

Race 8: $456,662 $552,550

Race 9: $423,523 $406,276

Total Handle: $880,185 $958,826

(Handle shown is all handle wagered in that race. In 2012, race 8 included a pick 5 pool ending with the Hambletonian Final. In 2018, race 8 included a pick 4 pool ending with race 11.)

The results show that by having the eliminations on the same day, the Hambletonian Eliminations out-handled the races in the same slot (Peter Haughton, Vincennes) in 2012 by $78,641. But at the same time, not only did the Hambletonian Final produce $571,397 less handle than in 2012, but the Final actually produced less handle than both eliminations.

In addition, in 2014, the Hambletonian did not require eliminations. The 11 horses entered went straight to the Final. With the field being known for five days before the final, total handle on that race was $785,692, without a Pick 4 beginning with the race. Beyond that, the Hambletonian Final was now included in a Pick 4 beginning in the Oaks (not possible now) that produced a pool of $119,882. This year the Pick 4 beginning with the Hambletonian Final produced a pool of $55,321. In 2014, there was just under $7 Million in North American Handle on the entire card and the total handle of $8.74 Million was the third highest handle of all time behind 2005 ($9.02 Million) and 2002 ($8.82 Million).

If you look at a snapshot of the full-card handle for Hambletonian Day, it is indisputable that handle exploded when the same-day heat/elimination format was removed.

In 1996, the last year of the same-day heat format, total handle for the Hambletonian card was $5.82 Million. In 10 years that number increased to $9.02 Million. Of that $9.02 Million, $8.78 Million was wagered in North America, compared to the $5.66 Million wagered in North America in 2018.

There is not a single argument that can be made from a betting standpoint that states the Hambletonian is better off contested in same-day elimination format. If your argument is that the same-day format is better for the on-track experience, then your argument is appealing to the fan and not the bettor. Even if that point is conceded, do we really believe that a person would not go to the Hambletonian because there is only a Hambletonian Final on the program along with a dozen other stakes races and not Hambletonian eliminations?

Even if you believe that to be the case, the argument being made is immeasurable and is an intangible. So to counter that intangible argument, allow an intangible argument of my own. The Hambletonian is “the race” in harness racing. It is the most well-known event. It is the race in the sport that is known by people who don’t even know that much about harness racing. The Hambletonian Final should be the race with the most money bet on it every year. It wasn’t even close to being the most wagered-upon race on the card. The Meadowlands Pace handled $120,000 more than the Hambletonian this year.

Here is another piece of the argument that I began this column with: What does harness racing need? Fans or bettors? If you believe it needs fans and you believe that racing it in a same-day elimination format provides more fans, then that is your right to have that opinion. I believe harness racing needs bettors and I don’t believe that a single fan would not have been at the Hambletonian if the eliminations were held the week before.

When we debate which horse is better suited to “go two heats,” none of us really know. It’s a handicapping angle without a tool available to form an opinion. The numbers are what they are and I would much rather be analyzing a $1 Million race for the week leading up to it, rather than not knowing who is going to be in the race until two hours before. This column likely won’t change anything, but on behalf of the bettors, move the eliminations back to week before so we know who is in the Hambletonian Final all week and the numbers will be rewarding.