Harness: The notion of needing a race is outdated

We live in a different world than years ago when it comes to harness racing and still many people have yet to catch on.

In the days leading up to the May 4 Cutler Memorial at The Meadowlands, I was torn between two contenders – Cruzado Dela Noche and Will Take Charge. Ultimately I selected the latter expecting a better price at post time, but to my surprise, they were both 8-1.

There was a time when horses coming off qualifiers, like Cruzado Dela Noche, simply weren’t ready for primetime. It would take a start or two for them to reach their peak performance. That is no longer the case and hasn’t been for years. As races continue to go faster and faster, trainers have adjusted and especially when it comes to the younger and stakes horses, they are coming back ready to rumble.

We are a society infatuated with recent performance and thus there was no doubt in my mind that Pinkman would go to post as the favorite, but what did he really do to deserve such recognition? He rated soft fractions in his prior win and could only finish second in his previous two tries while facing the “B” level trotters in terms of the Grand Circuit ranks this year. In addition, he was just 2 for his previous 20 since the start of 2018.

Looking at Cruzado Dela Noche, what wasn’t to like? His best race in the U.S. came off a layoff (Yonkers International) and both of his return qualifiers were super with times very comparable to what Pinkman was travelling in pari-mutuel races. Go back and watch the replay of his most recent morning effort. Driver Brian Sears just sat patiently in the stretch with Cruzado Dela Noche and he clearly had something left. Plus all of the final times on that card were about two seconds slow due to strong winds.

On paper, Cruzado Dela Noche looked every bit as good as Pinkman or second choice Trolley, who was coming off three straight fourth-place finishes. What’s even more interesting is that Guardian Angel As was also coming off a qualifier but he was nearly half the price of Cruzado Dela Noche, likely because people love the number “1” and he showed wins in both qualifiers, but that is a completely different column.

Somehow, Cruzado Deal Noche paid $19.00 to win while looking at least on par and perhaps even superior to much of the field. Additionally, his win wasn’t an isolated instance as he was one of four horses to win off qualifiers on the program and three went off at odds of at least 5-2.

Caviart Rockland is a prime example of a horse that was an overlay even as the favorite simply because his recent races occurred in qualifiers. If he had been second closing in 25 4/5 and third timed in 1:53 3/5 in adverse conditions on a betting card, he might’ve opened up at 3-5 and drifted up to a reasonable 8-5. Instead he was hovering around 9-2 just before post time and take late action by some savvy bettors to wind up at 5-2.

The other winners coming off qualifiers – Courtly Choice ($3.60) and Lather Up ($13.20) – were properly handled by the public. The latter, while immensely talented, had mixed results during his qualifiers and can be a bit hit or miss depending on how he feels that day. After three qualifiers he should’ve been ready and he was. I’m not going to tell you he was a good play because I never would’ve bet him. Courtly Choice was coming off a spectacular qualifier and the public backed him with both hands, perhaps because the final time of that morning session was 1:50 4/5, but more likely because he was the Meadowlands Pace and Little Brown Jug champion from 2018. Done Well was coming off an equally impressive qualifier in the same time and was 5.80-1 and earned my money due to value but fell short by three-quarters of a length.

We are too quick to think yesterday’s logic holds true today, whether in life or handicapping. With the exception of older overnight horses and some babies who are still learning the ropes, more times than not, horses are ready to fire when they step on the track. Keep that in mind the next time you make a bet.