Harness: Nothing wrong with a different opinion

Whenever I find someone walking within a few feet behind me that is clearly moving towards the same destination, I always conduct a test of choosing a certain path (not always the most direct) to see what the person behind me will do. While there is no official tally, I’d say about 90 percent of the people follow my exact path.

For whatever reason the majority seem content to follow. Of course, some people will always take a contrary position. We have plenty of those in harness racing. You say the sky is blue and they insist it is aqua.

My wife will likely disagree, but I like to think I’m reasonably open-minded. With that comes a willingness to evaluate each situation and form an educated opinion. Sometimes I’ll agree with the crowd and other times I just can’t jump on the bandwagon.

After reading many comments about the 2020 Prix d’Amerique, I have to disagree with the crowd when it comes to the drive by Bjorn Goop on the winner Face Time Bourbon.

Just about every post I saw on social media praised Goop’s great drive. For my money, he drove a correct race that was rewarded when both Looking Superb and Vivid Wise AS stopped in the stretch and allowed Goop the room to charge to the lead nearing the wire. Without that turn of good fortune, Face Time Bourbon would’ve been second in my opinion behind Davidson du Pont. That’s taking nothing away from the winner, but let’s call a spade a spade and admit that Face Time Bourbon had a relaxing cover trip behind many lead changes and saw the seas part for him with stretch clearance.

Another instance where I came away from a race with a different opinion than the public was in the 2019 Yonkers International Trot. If you simply watched the stretch drive or ignored how the race set up, Zacon Gio was a giant among boys as he trotted away from the field and won easily. Viewing the race with a more critical eye reveals that Zacon Gio lined up behind live cover and got the jump on the field because the first-over Uza Josselyn and leader Atlanta both came to a walk after a lively 27 4/5 fourth quarter.

Some people were so enamored with Zacon Gio’s performance that they named him their top older trotter of 2019 in the Dan Patch voting (he got seven votes). He certainly raced well and was a deserving winner, but the 2:24 1/5 win was hardly in the same class as Twister Bi’s 2:22 1/5 dominating win back in 2017.

Switching to the wagering front . . . while most people will tell you that carryover pools are mandatory plays, I’m not a true believer. Of course any time a Pick 4/5/6 comes with a carryover it is an enticing play as you are guaranteed a larger payout than normal. However, there are two clear situations where staying away makes more sense.

1) If the carryover is at a track you rarely follow, even with the carryover money, you are at a big disadvantage. Think about it, your money is going in against players that bet that track every day and are more familiar with the horses, trainers and drivers. Would you venture away from your home golf course to play the house pro at another location? Of course not! Then why would you take a shot with your money on unfamiliar terrain unless the carryover was so large that a huge overlay was going to occur?

2) When deciding which wagers to play I always take into account how much new money is likely to enter the pool. If there is a $6,000 carryover and that track typically gets $40,000 in new money from a similar total, I’m not running to the windows like I would if a track would typically get $20,000 in new money off that carryover amount. I’d rather bet into a $6,000 total pool with $2,000 in carryover money than a $80,000 pool with $12,000 carried over.

While we are on the topic of multi-race wagers, Woodbine Mohawk Park recently dropped its Pick 4 guarantee and instead upped the promised amount on the early Pick 5 to $75,000. While neither total pool has changed much due to the adjustments, the track had missed the $50,000 guaranteed amount a couple of times and it was clear that something had to be done. Why was this staple Pick 4 from races 4 to 7 all of a sudden falling short of the $50,000 guarantee? Blame it on the introduction of the Race 6 Pick 5 that started in 2020 and has been averaging just under $40,000. Would you rather bet the Pick 4 with a 25% takeout or the Pick 5 at 15%? Yes, that’s a rhetorical question.