Harness: The new Road to the Hambletonian

There's a sense that all of handicapping is historical to some degree. For those who look ahead and try to predict the outcome of a race, there's a need to draw from history whether it's a specific horse or a trainer.

In two months the Hambletonian will be raced at The Meadowlands and that's something we know as a constant. What we don't know in 2021 is just how the finalists for that $1 million event will chart a course and arrive there. The puzzle became even more complex earlier this week when we watched the winner of last year's Breeders Crown race, On A Streak, and the rival he conquered, Captain Corey, in action at The Downs at Mohegan Sun Pocono.

What was strange to see for those who have watched this sport for years wasn't the presence of two top-rated colts in action on a Pennsylvania Sire Stakes stop, but the choices that were made and the stunning differences in the outcomes of these events.

First and foremost, trainer Luc Blais, who masterfully brought Forbidden Trade to The Meadowlands in 2019 and captured the Hambetonian, has had to change a lot of his past tendencies simply because he's racing in the U.S. instead of Ontario where he's based. Still, On A Streak won two prestigious juvenile trotting events in 2020 (Crown and Wellwood Memorial) yet made his stakes debut in the "Stallion Series" portion of the Pocono program, avoiding just a few of the top-rated colts. Bob McClure put On A Streak in front and he stayed there throughout the final half winning in 1:56 2/5 while being driven out.

[EDITOR'S NOTE: On A Streak's next start comes on June 10 at Yonkers Raceway in a Non-winners-of-4-races overnight event.]

Contrasting On A Streak's performance on Monday (May 31) was the 2021 debut of Captain Corey, a son of Googoo Gaagaa that swept through the Pennsylvania Sire Stakes program as a juvenile last year but had his perfect season upended with defeats both in the Breeders Crown elimination (to Venerate) and then fading in the stretch after cutting the pace in the finale. Regardless of his efforts at Hoosier Park in the Breeders Crown, Captain Corey's races within Pennsylvania set him apart from many in this class. His debut on Monday was an effortless march down the road in an actual Sire Stakes division with Ake Svanstedt along for the ride that ended with a more than 10-length score in a 1:53 4/5 clocking.

So how do we look at two colts who six months earlier had established themselves as quite close in talent off of Monday's first efforts?

While the times of the respective efforts are literally miles apart in horse terminology, it's fair to say that neither was as good or bad as the times and margins of victory might suggest. In winning by nearly the length of the stretch Captain Corey just found a field of horses that did not show up to race on Monday. Most notably in that group was Arnold N Dicky, a son of Bar Hopping trained by Hall of Famer Chuck Sylvester, who started from the pole position and never took a step forward. The effort was somewhat disheartening for followers of this colt, who was a strong second in his seasonal debut at The Meadows on May 15. Yet it is still quite early in the racing season and perhaps the intent was to race from off the pace regardless of the outcome.

As for On A Streak's very presence in the "B" class at Pocono on Monday, you have to believe trainer Luc Blais is embarking on a long-term strategy to bring his colt along slowly and the only way to get a race for On A Streak that allows him to work his way into top form while not being asked to go at maximum capacity would be a Stallion Series event, as the team utilized effectively on Monday.

Of course, Blais and Sylvester are not alone when it comes to devising a plan that will have them not just ready but peaking at the right time come the first Saturday in August. Trainer "Nifty" Norman spent numerous weeks with last year's Valley Victory winner just in qualifying races. The gelded son of Muscle Hill from champion Bee A Magician has raced just once this year in a New Jersey Sire Stakes at The Meadowlands. Bee Forever did finish third in his debut on May 14 but was hardly ready to go sub-1:52 speed that the race demanded. So Norman sent Bee Forever to Pocono to race in non-winner's company this past Tuesday. It's the type of placement you never saw in the past for any major stakes horse returning as a 3-year-old. Yet it's clear given the shut down in Ontario and the limited number of actual stakes races on the schedule between the first of June and Hambletonian Day trainers have to utilize a different path to prepare their horses.

[EDITOR'S NOTE: Bee Forever made a bold wide move on the final turn before substitute driver Mark MacDonald lost him on the turn and the horse made a break. Bee Forever recovered quickly and charged home for fourth.]

While The Meadowlands does afford many trainers of high-level trotters a great place to qualify for the coming season, it's options for youngsters to get racing opportunities that don't require maximum efforts are rather limited. In this way it's understandable that many of the sport's leading conditioners have ventured away from East Rutherford to start work on the road to the Hambletonian.

As with all plans, the strategy will only be as good as the performance one can get when $1 million is up for grabs in the Hambletonian. What we're seeing today, just from the direction a few trainers are taking, is that building confidence and keeping these horses sound is a method many rely on. Just as getting the proper shoeing on a trotter is vital towards their gait, so too is a balance in scheduling that will allow them to perform in peak condition on a set date on the racing calendar.