Harness: How being wrong could turn out so right

In close to 50 years watching and wagering on horse races, I'm still amazed how often gamblers confuse skill and luck. Handicapping at any level requires a certain vision of coming events and sometimes bettors get it exactly right in analyzing and seeing their vision realized on a racetrack. The reality is races break down differently than thought most often, and the results are left more to chance than clairvoyance.

In 1980 I was spending most nights at Roosevelt Raceway as a chart-caller for Sports Eye and working during daylight hours proof-reading past performance data to be published in the daily newspaper. It was pre-internet, pre-cell phone and pre-computer, with quality information at a premium. That's the inspiration that Sports Eye was born under; to enhance past performances and give gamblers more tools to succeed at the racetrack. It was in becoming a chart-caller that I found out a lot of information many people who gambled wouldn't. It was reporting on the activities of every horse in the race, not just following the ones you bet on, that helped me acquire the knowledge that would assist in my own handicapping for what would be decades to come.

In that era, before written commentary was provided, there were defined limits on information in the program and virtually no path towards garnering actual knowledge from races held outside of your local track. It was in early July of 1980 when I was sent on a forced vacation from the newspaper that turned into an opportunity to follow the Grand Circuit. Traditionally, Saratoga Harness held a week of Grand Circuit action in July and in 1980 I was able to journey north to watch 2-year-olds in action for the first time. While handicapping overnight horses was the primary trade at Roosevelt and Yonkers, occasionally the New York Sire Stakes would find freshmen on the betting card.

At Saratoga I would get to see a live look at the next generation of pacing colts in the Battle of Saratoga. One division saw a Most Happy Fella (the top New York sire at the time) colt by the name of Armbro Aussie in his first stakes appearance. The colt started from post eight over the half-mile track, and his driver-trainer, the Hall of Famer Glen Garnsey, looked to leave from that spot. Armbro Aussie's path immediately shifted when a horse to his inside broke stride, forcing the colt wide while taken under restraint. Eventually, Garnsey would get Armbro Aussie settled, but when he made a second move past the half, he was once again bottled up when a horse in front of him broke on the third turn. At no point did Armbro Aussie break stride, but the multiple interferences cost him dearly. I did notice in between incidents how much speed the colt had.

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Armbro Aussie would resurface nearly two weeks later and be entered in a New York Sire Stakes division at Roosevelt Raceway. When the past performances were printed, I noticed that there were no "I" markings in the charted line from Saratoga. Despite experiencing interference on two occasions, the judges didn't make the indication on the charted line. To a handicapper, this lack of information was the equivalent of striking gold. Not only was the past performance from an out-of-town track, but the missing information would make the charted line look much worse than it was. Making the setup that much more enticing to me and those friends and family I would inform of the true Saratoga past performances, was the fact that Armbro Aussie landed the coveted pole position for the Roosevelt race and would be certain to be on the lead. After all, if Garnsey was so inclined to be blasting out of the gate over Saratoga's half-miler from post eight, he was sure to be aggressive at Roosevelt going for some big money.

For me, the handicapping of the race was of little importance. I didn't know much or anything about the competition, but I had plenty of faith in Armbro Aussie's ability and potential, and given his post position, I would make the biggest bet of my life at the time to back my belief.

There was one problem though, the New York Sire Stakes at Roosevelt would conflict with another major event on the stakes calendar, that being The Meadowlands Pace. In 1980 the race would feature an appearance by Niatross, looking to rebound from a defeat in his elimination race a week earlier. Considering that I had already traveled great distances to see Niatross in person before this race, it would be impossible to miss it just to make a bet at Roosevelt.

Looking back on that night, I recall that a colleague at Sports Eye was able to put the bet in at the track for me while I ventured to East Rutherford. I also remember that I had no ability to contact anyone at Roosevelt Raceway that night given the lack of cell phones. It wasn't until I turned on my car radio that I was able to hear the results of the race and find out that Armbro Aussie had in fact won and returned $24 to win. The price was shocking but not something I would complain about.

It wasn't until the following day that I would find out how wrong I was about my prediction. Armbro Aussie didn't leave the gate at all on that night and was indeed lucky to get a cover trip and rally for the victory.

I learned a valuable lesson that night that has followed me since. No matter how smart you think you are, luck plays a part in how events play out.

Perhaps the greatest lesson is to take credit for your successes and your failures. Gamblers, in general, tend to take credit for their successes and place blame for their losses. Accept that you can sometimes be right and wrong, as I clearly was back in 1980.